NRL Season 2012 17-13 +3.40 units
Round 4
Play #1
Eels vs Panthers OVER 38.5 x1 1.90
The battle of the west has fast turned into the 'battle of the worst' and these two teams defence is about as leaky as the Titanic. Even if one team fixes their defensive worries I still think there will be points leaked. With Sandow in doubt and Luke Walsh's kicking game not switched on these teams should score easy metres and easy tries.
The total has been bouncing around - overnight it was 44.5 on TAB Sportsbet before hitting 42.5 and opening this afternoon on Sportsbet at 38.5. The former gives you an idea of what the total might hit and if you can get 38.5 this play is great value. The stats have been kind to these teams because of the 'points for' being low, which assumes they won't score many points. However, this assumes they will face the same defensive ability as Round 1 and 2 teams such as the Broncos or Bulldogs, which is not the case.
GL
Play #2
Rabbitohs vs Broncos OVER 40.5 x1 1.90
Amazed this over did not open up at 42 or 44 as was the case last year when these two teams clashed. This game looks the goods for lots of points and GI's move to fullback gives us added value for even more points. These two teams average OVER by a substantial margin in every dry game they've played and with perfect conditions forecast tonight this is a solid play. The stats between these two teams are dragged down by low figures in previous games (2x low 30's in past 2 years), but further digging reveals wet weather conditions and a 'grind out' battle of the forwards. This won't be the case tonight and expect to see both teams throw it around in a points shoot out. Broncos having Matt Gillett and Josh McGuire on the bench is pure strike power & added points late in the game when fatigue sets in.
I'm locking in this play 1x tonight GL