[nikossf]

Lowered to -40.5 now...

[That Guy]

Lowered to -40.5 now...

40.5 should be fine. Can't see 1 point making a difference in this match.. but if you can get the 1 extra point go for it.
Value dropping to 1.80 at some books for the UNDER

[benrama]

Solid weekend TG, 44 points scored last st George home game against Storm has me worried but definitely the +EV play

Saints have been very strong at home this year, as much as their attack is anemic I think the value on them in MNF is enough for a small play for me also.

BOL.

[peterw111]

Half time total is 19.5 pts.......

I think the UNDER here might be more attractive than the game total UNDER..

Any thoughts ???

[That Guy]

updated FINAL : NRL Season 2012 104-89 +30.21
Round 24 5-3

Variance wins out tonight with a crazy game of football and some uncharacteristic errors from both sides. Dragons going well above their average points per game and breaking several season records and the Cowboys playing some ordinary football in patches.
Back next week with more wins

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 104-89 +30.21
Round 25
Time to start the second last round with a bang.. 40units + for the season is do-able.

Play #1
Raiders vs Bulldogs UNDER 42.5 3x 1.95
Don't often make 3x plays but this game is a perfect setup for the UNDER - gusty winds, cold conditions, crucial game and a referee that heavy favours low scoring matches. Raiders will be determined to keep the Bulldogs under control and with the team supposedly resting several key players this puts us in a great position. Raiders coach was quoted as saying they're happy to win games by grinding away wins slowly and they don't care how messy it gets - the last few weeks we've seen Raiders average totals drop almost in half with this 'new approach'. Bulldogs won't be thorwing everything at this game to win, they're more concerned with what's happening in a few weeks.
Have the total at 36pts but believe it could be much less... rolling 3x on the UNDER at 1.95. Books already moving in the lower total direction, with some already at 38.. 40+ would make it a play if you can get it.
GL

Play #2
Sea Eagles vs Broncos UNDER 40.5 2x 1.95
Another crucial match tonight for the Broncos who managed to keep the Storm total to UNDER 40 last week - massive effort and they'll need to do it again tonight. Knights blow out last week makes the Sea Eagles look fantastic but the Broncos are not the Knights. Expect a solid performance tonight from Brisbane who have several key players returning and Corey Parker looking much better in his second week back. Sea Eagles love to play grind away games at Brookvale with opposition teams and the Broncos aim at training has been "slowing down the Sea Eagles" - they do that and we see the UNDER hit. Thanks to some high scoring Sea Eagles matches recently I think we're getting a great total. Model has the game at 32points and I'm rolling 2x on the UNDER at 1.95.
GL

[That Guy]

Let's slam this shit TG....

That's the aim mate!

Nice close games with deperation from teams that need to win.. would be a great start to the weekend. GL

[jbart28]

That's the aim mate!

Nice close games with deperation from teams that need to win.. would be a great start to the weekend. GL

What is your bet size per unit?

Tailing both BOL

[snufflyjoe]

damn! notlooking good

[snufflyjoe]

cmon positive thinking fellas! this is going to hit now i feel it!

[ULTRANORTH]

So much for 3 units lol

[snufflyjoe]

aint over yet!

[snufflyjoe]

30 mins left can only let 1 more try happen, cmon!

[jbart28]

holy shit did we win both? I parlayed them too

[snufflyjoe]

So much for 3 units lol

yep...say hello to almost 6 units well done tg keep up the good work!

[jbart28]

Hell yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!! I went pretty big on these- TY TG

[snufflyjoe]

well done man. hey TG i tried to give you my sbr points but it wouldnt let me!? dont know wtf the points are for if your not a pro but they are yours if i can figure out how to giv em to ya

[benandjerry]

you have any opinion on the over in new queensland vs newcastle tomorrow?

I know you will get to this ofc, but I'll probably be away at that time, so just wondering if you had an early lean. NQL seems to conceed a fair ammount of points pretty often, at least against decent opposition.

[That Guy]

you have any opinion on the over in new queensland vs newcastle tomorrow?

I know you will get to this ofc, but I'll probably be away at that time, so just wondering if you had an early lean. NQL seems to conceed a fair ammount of points pretty often, at least against decent opposition.

hey mate.. only early days but I like the OVER for this game. Cowboys will be keen to hit some form and Knights will get dominated by a big side.

[That Guy]

well done man. hey TG i tried to give you my sbr points but it wouldnt let me!? dont know wtf the points are for if your not a pro but they are yours if i can figure out how to giv em to ya

no worries man.. all good either way!
beating the books brings me enough joy

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 106-89 +34.96
Round 25 2-0
Great start to the round with 2x UNDERS hitting and putting us up almost 5 units
About time the UNDER held with the Raiders instead of dying in the last 3mins. Back to pound the books again tomorrow.. GL

[binomial]

[Shifty107]

Well done brother. I parlayed both of them with Wellington -5.5 in the ITM Cup. Nice way to start the week. Keep it up mate.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 106-89 +34.96
Round 25 2-0

Play #3
Panthers vs Titans -4 1x 1.95
Laying low on team plays but had to jump on this. The Panthers were playing some beaten down opposition in Auckland last week and seem to be given more value then is necessary this week. The Titans will be fired up to win this game and have excellent second half stats - this is bad for the Panthers because they don't do well against teams that have strong finishes. Titans must win this game to make the finals and have a lot to play for, whereas the Panthers have avoided the wooden spoon and are playing for pride. Model has the Titans winning this game by at least 14points, so rolling 1x on Titans -4. Most books have moved to -5.5 but you'll still get -4 at bet365 if you're quick. GL

Play #4
Dragons vs Warriors UNDER 44 2x 1.95
Both teams stats are pretty similar at the moment and neither side is looking flash. Dragons will want to send off Young & Hornby on a winning note at home but I doubt either side will be killing it to win this match. We should see a typical Dragons game with decent defence and stodgy attack, this is great for the Warriors because they seem to be led by the opposing side and play the same game. Dragons have been over playing their hand to try and make the finals but now the dream is over they should settle down a bit. We saw a massive drop in average points when the Warriors were out of finals contention and the only variable is how their new coach will handle this match. Word is he's focusing on defence and ending the season with pride - plays right into the hands of a grind match from the Dragons.
Total is a little over cooked at 44pts - mode has it at 36pts. Rolling with the UNDER 44 for 2x 1.95. GL

Play #5
Cowboys vs Knights OVER 46 1x 1.91
Knights were just shocking last weekend and couldn't patch anything together. Scott and Tamou should dominate up the middle and with room to move Bowen & JT will do the work for the Cowboys. Averages for both teams have been moving upwards and the Cowboys are finally hitting full strength. We saw that last weekend when the Dragons (3rd best defence) was made to look like a school boy's match.
Have this total at 52pts with the potential of more - makes this a 1x play. GL

[jbart28]

Thanks- rolling with you again today! BOL

[kisado]

I'm on all 3 with my own handicapping. Went LARGE on all 3. From the looks of it, this guy is the cat's pajamas at NRL so gives me some extra confidence. Here's to a night of doubling my bankroll.

[jbart28]

Gold Coast not lookin good

[jbart28]

Wow cant believe coast was the fav here. They are terrible

[snufflyjoe]

Let's do this fellas!

[That Guy]

Season OVER for the Titans.. Didn't bother showing up.
Hopefully the totals make up for their shocka tonight.

[snufflyjoe]

Season OVER for the Titans.. Didn't bother showing up.
Hopefully the totals make up for their shocka tonight.

Man you never seem to have much luck with handicaps but you over unders are spot on