[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 68-59 +25.50

Round 17 2-2

Play #5
Raiders vs Dragons UNDER 36.5 3x 1.95
Rolling with this game in a big way. Statistically there is a huge lean on this game to a very solid UNDER. Dragons have only gone OVER 4 times this season and never against a team like Canberra that has a poor attacking record. Both teams are seemingly inept at finding the try line and the Raiders tonight believe they are a solid chance to win this encounter - playing with confidence at home will be a great boost to defense. Dragons haven't won in Canberra for 12 years.. whether they win or lose we should expect to see them close down the Raiders attack and play tight football. Dangers are that both teams break out from their trends - Dragons would need to score well above their average of 14pts per game and we'd need a Raiders team on fire.
A fumbling Dragons side, inexperienced halfback driving the Raiders around and a model that points to a total in the mid 20's makes this a 3x lock. GL

TAB was at 38.5 briefly this afternoon - great number to lock in if you can get it. I'd roll with 5x if I could get that figure.

[MatI]

TG, thanks for the tip, got it at 37.5. Do you think Dragons get up as well in this one? Surely the trend stops tonight?

[That Guy]

TG, thanks for the tip, got it at 37.5. Do you think Dragons get up as well in this one? Surely the trend stops tonight?

Depends what Raiders side shows up tonight. They have a few young guns that could kill it tonight but I have a feeling the experienced edge of the Dragons gets up in the end. With an average of only 14pts per game Dragons usually leave the door wide open for comebacks.. should be a defensive game which the Dragons will win.
Personally not touching the ML on this one.. bad memories from the last 3 years picking a much stronger Dragons side to win in Canberra.

[That Guy]

Squares throwing cash at the OVER just before kick off... UNDER 36.5 is now 2.10 at Sportsbet, OVER at 1.70
Guess it looks like a low total to the average punter. Hope the smart money is in the right place GL

[MatI]

Thanks for your thoughts TG. I'm doing a little parlay with some of the tennis games for tonight, bu its hard to pull the trigger on this Dragons side!

Squares throwing cash at the OVER just before kick off... UNDER 36.5 is now 2.10 at Sportsbet, OVER at 1.70
Guess it looks like a low total to the average punter. Hope the smart money is in the right place GL

I noticed that too. Looks promising. BOL.

[sportsguy04]

Raiders going to push this one over by themselves.

[sportsguy04]

Is the under dead you guys think? I don't know rugby Much but it's halfway on pace already over

[hawley]

Is the under dead you guys think? I don't know rugby Much but it's halfway on pace already over

Dragons could easily hold the Raiders out for 40 minutes if their defence turns up and then it depends on whether the Dragons can score any points..

Under still has a shot.

[kingsr]

If soward the coward can learn how to defend, the under will hit!

**** you soward you shitplayer!

[sportsguy04]

I agree. Idiots scores 10 points in 2 minutes! That's the only thing I don't like about unders in rugby. Not safe until the whistle blows.

[sportsguy04]

Im going to bed hoping these two teams can't score second half and this ends 18-16.

[That Guy]

F-ck me!!
UNDER gone with less than 90secs left. Worst beat of the season... Just horrible. Variance wins tonight. Ouch.
Hoodoo is alive - 13yrs till Dragons win in Canberra now.

[sportsguy04]

I don't get how the dragons d could let them run the full field to score with less then 3 minutes left protecting a lead.

[MatI]

That just hurts. I would much rather see it go over with 20mins left than have to watch that happen.

[angelo63]

F-ck me!!
UNDER gone with less than 90secs left. Worst beat of the season... Just horrible. Variance wins tonight. Ouch.
Hoodoo is alive - 13yrs till Dragons win in Canberra now.

Hey TG, I was there with my Kids, great night, everyone dressed in Dragons apparell, sitting with the Dagon army behind us, everyine singing the "saints go marching in' Lots of smiles and then, I see Reece Robinson running right at us with no one infront of him, it was like Moses and the parting of the red sea.....F..K Me worse bad beat of the year.....your play was the right one.....even sadder my son is 12 and only ever seen the Dragons win once ( the 2010 grand final.) Not a very happy trip home...Variance wasa big bitch tonight....anyways keep up the good work as in the end your moel stands up and delivers unlike the Dragons defence tonight....

[That Guy]

Hey TG, I was there with my Kids, great night, everyone dressed in Dragons apparell, sitting with the Dagon army behind us, everyine singing the "saints go marching in' Lots of smiles and then, I see Reece Robinson running right at us with no one infront of him, it was like Moses and the parting of the red sea.....F..K Me worse bad beat of the year.....your play was the right one.....even sadder my son is 12 and only ever seen the Dragons win once ( the 2010 grand final.) Not a very happy trip home...Variance wasa big bitch tonight....anyways keep up the good work as in the end your moel stands up and delivers unlike the Dragons defence tonight....

Cheers mate
Just a brutal bad beat.. 90secs!!! and that try with 2mins to go in the first half.. WTF
Anyway.. must have been a great game to watch with the kids for at least 78mins. Thought there had to be an obstruction for Robinson to score so easily.
Everyone rubbishes that hoodoo every year but.. 1 year later the Dragons always go down time and time again. Hopefully next year they score a win - at least for Dragon supporters in Canberra! GL this week

[That Guy]

updated end Round 17:

NRL Season 2012 68-60 +22.50
Round 17 2-3

First negative round for 6 weeks after a painful bad beat in the last 90secs of Raiders / Dragons match. Even after a bad start the UNDER looked good till the 78min mark.. anyway.. must move on from this play and focus on the week ahead.
Goal has always been to reach a profit of 30units for the regular season and still on track to reach that. We should see more consistent totals after the State of Origin finishes up and players focus on making the finals. Normally UNDER is that play (generally speaking) for the weeks after Origin.. looking into past stats to see if this is trend or coincidence.

[brettd]

Hey mate,
Just came across your thread, nice work. I'm much more of a statistical handicapper with sports and especially NRL (no choice being a clueless Victorian) but really like your qualitative write ups. I just went through all your posts to get a feel for your capping. I'll be following from now on for your team/positional commentary.

updated end Round 17:

NRL Season 2012 68-60 +22.50
Round 17 2-3

First negative round for 6 weeks after a painful bad beat in the last 90secs of Raiders / Dragons match. Even after a bad start the UNDER looked good till the 78min mark.. anyway.. must move on from this play and focus on the week ahead.
Goal has always been to reach a profit of 30units for the regular season and still on track to reach that. We should see more consistent totals after the State of Origin finishes up and players focus on making the finals. Normally UNDER is that play (generally speaking) for the weeks after Origin.. looking into past stats to see if this is trend or coincidence.

My database shows exactly the opposite. The OVER covers more in the end season than any other part of the season. Mind you, I only have totals lines to 2009. Overall observing my round-by-round graph, I can see no clear trend over the course of the season as to the probability of the UNDER or OVER covering.

You often talk about rain being a factor, however i'd be careful in incorporating rain as an UNDER factor. The market seems to know the effect of rain on totals and follows rain closely. The relationship between rain and probability of the UNDER covering is statistically insignificant (even at a lower z of 1.5).

The market's understanding of WX on sides seems to be left wanting though.

[That Guy]

Hey mate,
Just came across your thread, nice work. I'm much more of a statistical handicapper with sports and especially NRL (no choice being a clueless Victorian) but really like your qualitative write ups. I just went through all your posts to get a feel for your capping. I'll be following from now on for your team/positional commentary.



My database shows exactly the opposite. The OVER covers more in the end season than any other part of the season. Mind you, I only have totals lines to 2009. Overall observing my round-by-round graph, I can see no clear trend over the course of the season as to the probability of the UNDER or OVER covering.

You often talk about rain being a factor, however i'd be careful in incorporating rain as an UNDER factor. The market seems to know the effect of rain on totals and follows rain closely. The relationship between rain and probability of the UNDER covering is statistically insignificant (even at a lower z of 1.5).

The market's understanding of WX on sides seems to be left wanting though.

Cheers for your thoughts mate. Always appreciated.. Feel free to leave your comments on future plays / leans. I don't think you can improve as a capper by self evaluation alone.
I think weather can be a factor to an extent but by far the best plays this season have been pounding the OVER when the market is all on UNDER. Crazy totals like 32 for Storm vs Broncos with rested origin stars was a gift.
Still looking into trends for the remaining season (using 10/11 data as a guide), but I'm more interested in qualitively evaluating each play and assessing it that way.
GL for the rest of the season. Look forward to hearing your thoughts / feedback moving forward...

[brettd]

Mate can you give me any good team/positional reason to not get down on Melbourne -12 right now. This is the stand out from my model so far for next round.

[hawley]

Mate can you give me any good team/positional reason to not get down on Melbourne -12 right now. This is the stand out from my model so far for next round.

The off chance that Cronk or Smith gets injured tomorrow night, or Bellamy decides to give them some rest this weekend?

[That Guy]

Mate can you give me any good team/positional reason to not get down on Melbourne -12 right now. This is the stand out from my model so far for next round.

No. It's the Raiders in Melbourne.. even with or without Origin players Melbourne have dominated this year. When they played Brisbane after Origin on a Friday night they looked in top form - they have 1 more day to recover and should still smash them. Like this play a lot.

[That Guy]

State of Origin 3

Play 1 (not counted in NRL totals)
Total OVER 34.5 3x 1.95
Have this game as a solid OVER. All other games in the series have gone UNDER but with positional changes and a dry track tonight it should be game on. Everything is on the line and we should see a fast high-scoring game. Game 2 there were plenty of opportunities for tries that weren't converted into points - if we get those opportunities tonight we should get the points.
On a basic model I have this game at 38points.. Game 3 totals have been trending higher then Game 1 / 2 over the past few years as well. Locking this in for a 3x play - not counted in overall NRL totals.
GL

[brettd]

I'm gonna mention something here. In the NRL, a first year home coach (Meninga is 'first year' right?) vs an away coach with 10+ years experience in the NRL goes UNDER at a rate of 62% (26 occurrences). It seems that the away team's coaching experience negates the home team's capacity to score.

I'm not sure how relevant this is to SOO though.

Neither can I find who is umpiring either. Which I have found to be important.

[brettd]

Hhmm... Ben Cummins and Tony Archer, both UNDER merchants in the NRL. Tony in particularly covers the under at 59% over 99 occurrences.

They're a potent UNDER combination. I was going to bet the UNDER on this game, but considering your write up, i'm gonna sit out on this one.

[hawley]

I'm gonna mention something here. In the NRL, a first year home coach (Meninga is 'first year' right?) vs an away coach with 10+ years experience in the NRL goes UNDER at a rate of 62% (26 occurrences). It seems that the away team's coaching experience negates the home team's capacity to score.

I'm not sure how relevant this is to SOO though.

Neither can I find who is umpiring either. Which I have found to be important.

Very interested to see refs o/u records. Have never bothered to even consider tracking that stuff.


What do you mean by Meninga being a first year coach?

[That Guy]

I'm gonna mention something here. In the NRL, a first year home coach (Meninga is 'first year' right?) vs an away coach with 10+ years experience in the NRL goes UNDER at a rate of 62% (26 occurrences). It seems that the away team's coaching experience negates the home team's capacity to score.

I'm not sure how relevant this is to SOO though.

Neither can I find who is umpiring either. Which I have found to be important.

Meninga has been a coach for a few years. State of Origin is a whole different ball game to NRL.. haven't really bothered to apply any NRL models to Origin because it's not relevant. Refs can also be a little more looser with some rules and encourage much more free play than your average NRL game.
I've just based my basic model on Origin averages and player figures for Origin only. Also a very very strong lean to the OVER on the last game. Think you mentioned this elsewhere as well Hawley?!
GL with whatever you play. Going to be a great game regardless

[brettd]

Very interested to see refs o/u records. Have never bothered to even consider tracking that stuff.


What do you mean by Meninga being a first year coach?

Ah sorry mate, I just Wikied Meninga. He seems to have coached prior to my coaching database starting (2005). I have only tracked a coach's starting year if they coached at 2005 or beyond. Given that he's been out of regular coaching for so long, I could 'award' him 2nd or 3rd coaching experience.

In regards to referees, a knowledgeable NRL guy once told me to carefully monitor the nuances of the umpires in the NRL. Since I'm not a rugby head, I really cannot follow umpires in the way I would have liked. I simply monitor ATS % performance of each individual umpire and how they do ATS% in sides and totals. But ideally, an NRL guy would understand how game plans interact with rule interpretations of the field umpires.

[brettd]

If I bin Meninga's coaching experience as between 2-4 years, the OVER against a 10+ year away coach hits at 51.5% (69 occurrences, not statistically significant anyway).

Regarding what TG said about SOO umpiring, I reckon that nullifies my umpiring ATS% heuristic.

I'm on board the OVER for a unit.

Cheers

[brettd]

Hey TG not sure if my message went though, but I just PM'ed you.

Cheers

[ThaBigG]

Thanks for the pick!! OVER $$$$$$$

[That Guy]

Thanks for the pick!! OVER $$$$$$$

No probs
Wish that would count to the NRL total after Monday night's bad beat!
Makes up for it anyway.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 68-60 +22.50
Round 18
Back to it for another week.. some very very good looking plays this weekend.
GL everyone

Play #1
Tigers vs Bulldogs OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Stats for this game are deceiving because on paper it looks like a solid UNDER. However we have Farah missing in defensive line tonight for the Tigers along with Moltzen - both massive workhorses who make a lot of tackles. This contributes to a Tigers side who have leaked in excess of 80+ points against the Knights and Roosters.. not exactly form teams in the compeititon. The Dogs left side with Pritchard and Morris should have a field day, especially with Tigers players being out of position as Beau Ryan shifts to fullback. Even if Tigers defence improves substantially we're still looking at them leaking 22-28 points which should be enough for the over to hit.
Rolling with this for 1x at 1.95 GL


Play #2
Tigers vs Bulldogs -6 1x 1.92
As above. Bulldogs showed they have stepped up another level after crushing the Storm in Mackay 2 weeks ago. They should have it all over the Tigers and frustrate them in defense. See this as a 10-14 point win on the model which makes it a play.
GL
As above