[That Guy]

Excellent cash Thatguy for the Melbourne vs Canterbury game. The conditions and persistent defence by Canterbury made it an easy under. These two teams are definitely going to see each other in September, they're both brilliant.

Canterbury's line defence and retro tactic of ball playing forwards have changed the game in my opinion, they're going to give this Premiership a massive shake. Ben Barbar's try - Wow.

Keep up the good work mate, love your picks.

Cheers mate
Was a great game to watch!
Ben Barbar - try of the year I reckon. Amazing.

[That Guy]

You nailed that Storm/Bulldogs Under!
Glad I tailed.
14 at the half and only 10 in 2nd half.
Congrats on your 3x.

[That Guy]

Great work TG, Unlucky with the Raiders under, as we knew they would not score too many but once the Cows had scored 30 in the first half it was always goingto be hard to stay under. Raiders defence is pathetic, a few of the tries that the Cows scored were players running over the try line without a hand being laid on them and that was from the forwards not backs streaking away. Storm and Bulldogs defence was outstnading as you predicted, Barba is a freak, Poor Meninga has a dillema Barba, Bowen or Inglis....

Anyway great to see your big play hit ....

Cheers mate.. f-king Raiders!
So many times you put faith in them not collapsing and they go ahead and do it time and time again. Can't believe the solid defence and upsets they were putting on at the start of the year - missing Campese doesn't make you perform that bad!

[Donkey]

Cheers mate.. f-king Raiders!
So many times you put faith in them not collapsing and they go ahead and do it time and time again. Can't believe the solid defence and upsets they were putting on at the start of the year - missing Campese doesn't make you perform that bad!

try being a raiders supporter...ha, not easy

[That Guy]

try being a raiders supporter...ha, not easy

ouch.. feel for you!
Can't be easy this year - great time to watch (normally)

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 65-57 +25.65

Round 16 4-3

Play #8
Knights vs Tigers OVER 41.5 1x 1.95
Stats are deceiving for this one - averages has this game hitting the mid 30's but the defensive lapses over the past 3 rounds from these two teams has been astounding. We are looking at a very shaky Knights side that seem to have forgotten about Bennett-style defence and play scrappy footy. Robbie Farah back for the Tigers will be a big bonus and we should see the Tigers put on some points. This game is setup for a typical push-pull scenario with Tigers leading and Knights chasing down the lead to a certain extent. Can't see either of these sides playing tight footy without someone collapsing. Locking this in for 1x 1.95
GL

[s2230011]

Well done on the last couple of plays mate !

Newcastle are horrible atm, with this bet we are going to need them to score at least 3 times. I agree with you that I wouldnt touch the under, but Tigers -5.5 is tempting.

The Knights against the Raiders was one of the worst performances I have seen in a while.

Two other minor factors tonight, I think the Tigers might be playing tonight in Honour of Sonia Farah, and how will Uate respond to being dropped?

[That Guy]

Well done on the last couple of plays mate !

Newcastle are horrible atm, with this bet we are going to need them to score at least 3 times. I agree with you that I wouldnt touch the under, but Tigers -5.5 is tempting.

The Knights against the Raiders was one of the worst performances I have seen in a while.

Two other minor factors tonight, I think the Tigers might be playing tonight in Honour of Sonia Farah, and how will Uate respond to being dropped?

Tigers -5.5 is worth a shot but I'm concerned the Knights are due for some bounce back - they can't play worse then last week can they?
Surely they've hit the bottom and will start winning (some) games

[dRavidC]

we both cashed the over well played mate.

had a feeling the wayne bennett-coached knights were gonna rebound at some point, either this game or the next one. looks like it's gonna be tonight.

[silvap]

Another great call sir, thanks for sharing and best of luck

[That Guy]

we both cashed the over well played mate.

had a feeling the wayne bennett-coached knights were gonna rebound at some point, either this game or the next one. looks like it's gonna be tonight.

good work mate
Knights hit back in a big way.. had a feeling all the big money being put on the Tigers was a little too good to be true. Great when the OVER hits and u can relax and watching another 30mins of football.

[That Guy]

Another great call sir, thanks for sharing and best of luck

No probs Silvap.. GL!

[That Guy]

updated end Round 16: NRL Season 2012 66-57 +26.60

Round 16 5-3
Great end to the round with the Knights / Tigers OVER cashing in a big way. Another round with Origin stars missing before the season winds towards finals time with everyone on deck. GL this week with your plays

[That Guy]

Super round TG
As always
Love ya work
Nothing better than slamming MNF
Cheers
Now time to punish the books in tennis

cheers to that mate
Good luck this week with tennis - great time to slam the books

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 66-57 +26.60

Round 17
Back into it for the last round with Origin players missing. Expect some upsets and different results but looking back - these rounds have been very profitable with most squares overplaying their hand on under-strength sides.. so we'll probably get some value again going forward.

Play #1
Broncos vs Sharks UNDER 38.5 1x 1.95
Have this play as a solid UNDER even if the baby Broncos did put on a massive total against the Roosters last time. Sharks defence has been impressive for the most part and it should continue that way tonight. Without Carney they lack some serious sting in attack and rely almost soley on forcing errors from the opposing side. Despite an extremely poor record in Brisbane the Sharks should withstand a complete collapse. Expecting this to be a sloppy game on a soaked Suncorp Stadium, despite sunshien today we'll still get a wet surface. Model has this game at 28 points which I think is about right. If Sharks defence holds up and they catch the high balls this game goes UNDER easily.. Don't think we'll see many points from Cronulla to cause problems.
Rolling with 1x 1.95.. GL

[benrama]

Like it TG, my only concern is a complete Brisbane blow-out, but agreed Cronulla won't score much tonight, worth a play on the under team total for the Sharks if you can get it at your book.

BOL

[That Guy]

Like it TG, my only concern is a complete Brisbane blow-out, but agreed Cronulla won't score much tonight, worth a play on the under team total for the Sharks if you can get it at your book.

BOL

yeah good call... Sharks UNDER 16.5 looks good

[hjrozay]

I think the Sharks forward pack is a better defensive unit then the Roosters, this will be a close start even though Brisbane retain their spine, they're missing a few key forwards which should see a tight 20-30 minutes to start the match.


I like the pick and the price.

[s2230011]

Maybe there was only one game pre Origin for the Broncos this year .. BUT there was two post origins where they rested some of their Origins players. They lost both .. and they only score a combined total of 10 points in those two games. In the two pre origin games for the Sharks they scored 6 and 22 points.

Also ... Broncos overall record O/U 40 points ... 7-8 favouring under. Sharks are 4 - 10 also favouring under.

Against the current top 8s, Sharks are also 1-5 faouring Under. Broncos againse top 8 are 3-4 favouring under too.

Sharks games have had the first half being the highest scoring half 9 -3 (2 times even).

[That Guy]

Maybe there was only one game pre Origin for the Broncos this year .. BUT there was two post origins where they rested some of their Origins players. They lost both .. and they only score a combined total of 10 points in those two games. In the two pre origin games for the Sharks they scored 6 and 22 points.

Also ... Broncos overall record O/U 40 points ... 7-8 favouring under. Sharks are 4 - 10 also favouring under.

Against the current top 8s, Sharks are also 1-5 faouring Under. Broncos againse top 8 are 3-4 favouring under too.

Sharks games have had the first half being the highest scoring half 9 -3 (2 times even).

nice stats!
Think we'll see a big effort from Brisbane tonight with the young guns looking to impress.. several off contract players out to prove a point as opposed to 3-4 worn out players recovering from Origin.
Hope the Sharks forwards stand up in defense and backs do okay under the high ball - you can bet all your money we'll see lots of bombs tonight. Sharks conceed the most points off kicks.

[benrama]

Yea more I look at it - Brisbane to win here. Sharks are one dimensional at the best of times and require repeat sets from Carney's kicks and hoping they can get a one out runner to break the line.

Liking a Brisbane/hawthorn multi for the evening

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 67-57 +27.55

Round 17 1-0

wow.. variance on display with scrum wins against the feed, intercepts galore and the underdog causing an upset. Somehow the UNDER still cashed!!
Big get of jail for this play but a win is a win

[angelo63]

updated: NRL Season 2012 67-57 +27.55

Round 17 1-0

wow.. variance on display with scrum wins against the feed, intercepts galore and the underdog causing an upset. Somehow the UNDER still cashed!!
Big get of jail for this play but a win is a win

I never gave up hope mate, Upsets are the order of the round i can sense, Variance always comes to play this time in our favour.GL with the rest of the weekend.

[silvap]

Thanks for another great pick sir,had ourselves a little sweater match here! Cheers and appreciate the sharing

[Donkey]

good hit this was. when they got that last try i was screaming at the tv for him to miss the kick

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 67-57 +27.55

Round 17 1-0

Play #2
Eels vs Knights OVER 40.5 1x 1.95
Had assumed that a big play on the UNDER might be in order here but the more you look at the stats the OVER looks like the ultimate play. Just don't trust either side to clean up defensively and with Hayne missing for the Eels they'll have a few players out of position. This should turn into a crapfest shoot out as both teams expose holes in the defensive lines. Eels give up 27pts per game on average and the Knights are not much better. Both sides should be high on confidence after wins last week, so expect them both to rate their chances and throw it around a bit. Model has this game at 41 - which is not impressive. But if you take out the games where both sides have been smashed by top 8 sides (and it gives them more attacking opportunities / tries) the total rises to 56. Without a complete collapse from either side the OVER cashes.. expecting a score line of 32-24 or similar.
Can't trust these sides to play tight football and not fall back into old habits. Rolling with the OVER for 1x. GL

[gotov]

I like the pick, was gona play the unders but i like your angle on the game
Already up $2 on some books

[hedgejob]

Why is Eels under so low?

[hedgejob]

Cause d!ckheads can't score. Easy cash, I doubled up once I saw whole board was on over.

[MrXYZ]

Tough loss on this one TG. I thought it was a solid play. That dull stretch in the 1st half really killed us.

Good luck with Sunday's action. The books have set high totals in spite of missing Origin players, with 45.5 for Warriors/Cowboys & 44.5 for Souths/Penrith.

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 67-58 +26.55

Round 17 1-1
Tough loss last night with 30mins of no scoring killing the OVER early... hoping for a good bounce back today

Play #3
Warriors vs Cowboys UNDER 45.5 2x 1.95
There is no doubt the Warriors are massive favourites in this spot with the Cowboys missing their attacking weapons. The books have the Warriors -15.5 which suggests a white wash but we shouldn't get a lopsided game where the Warriors alone push the total OVER. We're missing some serious strike power in this match with no Vatuvei and Thurston amoungst other Origin players missing.. Cowboys have the weapons to diffuse the Warriors attack with 4 of their backline rated within the top 6 defenders of that particular position. We saw these players on display when they kept the Broncos side scoreless only 2 weeks ago. Warriors kicking game will need to be on song to get a total anywhere near 40. Nathan Friend returning for the Warriors will also strengthen up their defence that has been a little shaky at times. Have this game at 38points.. locking the UNDER in 2x at 1.95. GL

[That Guy]

added:

Play #4
Rabbitohs vs Panthers OVER 44.5 1x 1.90
This game looks dangerous with the inclusion of Dave Taylor and possibly Burgess / Pettybourne. Where the Rabbitohs have won by large margins they've also allowed the opposition to get within 10 points in more than 80% of their games. This suggests that the Panthers can sneak this total over with some late tries. Rabbitohs coming off a loss will be great for this game - they'll be looking to return to form and prove themselves against the hapless Panthers. Earlier this season when these teams clashed we had a total of 64 and even without GI this still should go way OVER. Model only suggesting a total of 48pts which is why I'm not playing this for 2x.
Playing this OVER 44.5 at 1.95. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 68-59 +25.50

Round 17 2-2
Great to cash the Rabbitohs / Panthers OVER but frustrating to see the Warriors / Cowboys slip over the total with less then 10mins remaining. UNDER was almost dead after both teams played some shocking football for the first 30mins and piled on the points. Looking at a big play for MNF tomorrow - total UNDER 36 looks good but just crunching some more numbers before pulling the trigger.

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 68-59 +25.50

Round 17 2-2

Play #5
Raiders vs Dragons UNDER 36.5 3x 1.95
Rolling with this game in a big way. Statistically there is a huge lean on this game to a very solid UNDER. Dragons have only gone OVER 4 times this season and never against a team like Canberra that has a poor attacking record. Both teams are seemingly inept at finding the try line and the Raiders tonight believe they are a solid chance to win this encounter - playing with confidence at home will be a great boost to defense. Dragons haven't won in Canberra for 12 years.. whether they win or lose we should expect to see them close down the Raiders attack and play tight football. Dangers are that both teams break out from their trends - Dragons would need to score well above their average of 14pts per game and we'd need a Raiders team on fire.
A fumbling Dragons side, inexperienced halfback driving the Raiders around and a model that points to a total in the mid 20's makes this a 3x lock. GL