[ThaBigG]

Great call in the titans sharks OVER! thanks!!

[GAMBLOR777]

nice call guy i've noticed low totals like these cash often

[That Guy]

nice call guy i've noticed low totals like these cash often

low total and players missing is a gift.. Books might have assumed the rain would slow things down but they overplayed it.
Good to cash it but regretting not going a little bigger. GL!

[That Guy]

Added:

Play #6
Panthers vs Warriors OVER 38.5 3x 1.90
Jumped on this total as soon as I saw it this morning. TAB opened at 42.5 and I think we see this rise when Pinny open later around the 42 mark. Warriors are unaffected by Origin and look stronger this week with the return of Locke at fullback. Vatuvei will be keen to have a big one after a shocker last week against the Storm. More importantly no matter what way the numbers crunch on the model this game always looks like a tryfest waiting to happen. We should see a points shoot out tonight with Warriors forwards steamrolling the Panthers who are missing Jennings, Grant & Lewis. Penrith should still provide some points via Travis Burns at 5/8 who has been on fire. On average both these sides let thru 20-28 points per game, so it doesn't take much for this to go OVER...
Locking this in for 1x at 1.90 GL

[Sol]

GL mate. The total has dropped to 36.5 at sportsbet. Hard to see how it will stay under that number.

[That Guy]

GL mate. The total has dropped to 36.5 at sportsbet. Hard to see how it will stay under that number.

Cheers mate.. GL as well
Books must be confident the rain will slow things down...didn't seem to work yesterday with the Broncos vs Roosters in heavy rain & Sharks vs Titans.

[angelo63]

33.5 at unibet.......

[Bazz27]

c/bet @32.5pts. radar looks like big rain in penrith/syd area

[That Guy]

Added:
Panthers v Warriors OVER 31.5 1x 2.15
Reasons as per above - such a low total even if it is raining lots.
GL

[angelo63]

I agree TG i loaded up more as well, Panthers will bomb their way to at least a couple of tries and the Warriors big men will give them a solid platform to set up a few tries through the middle of the park, Grant and Lewis missing takes a lot of starch out of their defence. GL

[That Guy]

I agree TG i loaded up more as well, Panthers will bomb their way to at least a couple of tries and the Warriors big men will give them a solid platform to set up a few tries through the middle of the park, Grant and Lewis missing takes a lot of starch out of their defence. GL

GL tonight. UNDER 31.5 getting pounded by the squares - down to 1.70 now. Warriors out of all sides should be able to handle a wet slog out. This isn't Dragons or Storm defense we're looking at either..

[angelo63]

With you lads on the overs after just composing myself by knockin the rest of my slab off after today's backdooring by the demons. Brutal loss..
Let's slam the books on this 1 tonight


EDIT- missed the jump been on the beers. This looking good for the lads on overs

That was a brutal loss onthe Mapies line of 46. I know there is Variance but such a goal out of nothing that meant nothing to anyone does hurt...But we just get up and shake it off and move on to the next one ,

I took the Warriors at alf time at +ev so the pain has subsided. Looking forward to the SOO on Wedensday with the rain in Sydney looking like it will hang around I can see the books getting the public into thinking it will be a lowscoring match and putting up some sub 30 line, these two teams both know how to score tries and the conditions wont matter that much as proven tonight.

...Excitment plus ahead,If your follwing Euro i am backing France and Sweden tonight, so far its been great and both these two teams look too strong tonight, Good Luck and great work TG

[That Guy]

That was a brutal loss onthe Mapies line of 46. I know there is Variance but such a goal out of nothing that meant nothing to anyone does hurt...But we just get up and shake it off and move on to the next one ,

I took the Warriors at alf time at +ev so the pain has subsided. Looking forward to the SOO on Wedensday with the rain in Sydney looking like it will hang around I can see the books getting the public into thinking it will be a lowscoring match and putting up some sub 30 line, these two teams both know how to score tries and the conditions wont matter that much as proven tonight.

...Excitment plus ahead,If your follwing Euro i am backing France and Sweden tonight, so far its been great and both these two teams look too strong tonight, Good Luck and great work TG

GL this week mate.. here's hoping the Origin total is so low it's a must play
Might take Sweden / France overnight for some excitement. Cheers

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 55-49 +20.43

Round 14 3-4 (+1.75 units)

Made the big play count today putting us almost +2 units in front for the round after a patchy start with some interesting results. Great to cash the solid over tonight after some scrappy defence in wet conditions. GL with Origin this week

[MatI]

Tailed on the over tonight TG. Thanks for the tip.

I love it when the public over react to weather conditions.

[That Guy]

State of Origin (Side bets - not counted in totals)

Play #1
TOTAL under 34.5 1x 1.80
With a slow field after days of rain it should be a much more controlled game. Both teams should let this game play out thru the forwards and I'm rolling with the UNDER. Was hoping it might be a little undercooked and play the OVER but books are confident there will be more points.

Play #2
NSW 1x 1.95
Full house of 80k + the Blues have a strong home crowd advantage and should make full use of it. QLD have only won once in front of a hostile crowd of 80+ (despite 7 attempts).

GL

[s2230011]

Nice hit on SOO

What's everyone liking tonight?

I think the over for Broncos and Cowboys might be good. Broncos are a point machine atm

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 55-49 +20.43

Some great looking games this weekend and if i'm not mistaken both Friday matches look very solid for the totals.
GL this weekend

Round 15

Play #1
Cowboys vs Broncos OVER 42.5 1x 1.95
These games are normally point shoot-outs with the total exceeding 50pts 4 out of the last 5 games. Broncos missing some big guns have still been able to put on the points, last week exceeding 60points total against the Roosters. They're still managing to win games thru attack whilst their defensive efforts have been lacking - bad for them but great for totals.
Have this game at 48 points and rolling with a 2x play on the OVER. Last time these teams played the total was 44.5 points at the end of play, so we're getting some value here. GL


Play #2
Dragons vs Bulldogs UNDER 34.5 1x 2.05
It's a low total but we've got two of the most effective teams in defence facing off against each other. Dragons are winning games on defence and have been shocking in attack - coming off the bye should benefit both teams defensive efforts after a good rest. Dragons totals have only averaged the high 20's for the past month and they haven't hit an OVER since ANZAC Day in April. Bulldogs are the danger to send this into a beating.. but after a good break and 2 weeks to prepare for the Dragons I don't think this happens.Last time they met the Dogs won 30-4 in Round 2 this year.
Have this game at 28points tonight and rolling with 1x 2.05. GL

[s2230011]

Another thing I have been looking at is 1st half points, The Dragons and Bulldogs have a much higher 1st half points total then 2nd half. Between these two sides the first half being the highest scoring half has been 16-5-5. I think there might be something mentally there, the Dragons defeintly close up shop in the second half but the Dogs trend is even stronger going 9-3-1.

Thanks for the tips, Corey Parker is out tonight, not that I rate his as a kicker but I am tossing up between the total points or the total tries options.

[That Guy]

Another thing I have been looking at is 1st half points, The Dragons and Bulldogs have a much higher 1st half points total then 2nd half. Between these two sides the first half being the highest scoring half has been 16-5-5. I think there might be something mentally there, the Dragons defeintly close up shop in the second half but the Dogs trend is even stronger going 9-3-1.

Thanks for the tips, Corey Parker is out tonight, not that I rate his as a kicker but I am tossing up between the total points or the total tries options.

Yeah there might a live angle.. especially if the Dogs pile on plenty of points and the total blows out. Could be a great little money spinner.. looking at the stats the Dragons barely score 1 or 2 tries in second half (going off past 6 weeks anyway).
Broncos were 6/7 for conversions last week which is pretty good. GL mate

[s2230011]

Thanks for the reply.

Its Over 42.5 paying $1.80 on TAB and over 7.5 tries paying 1.85 .. I am leaning the second option, more of the same really

[s2230011]

TAB has Under 6.5 tries for the Dragons game 1.75 .. I think thats a good option. Two good goal kickers, also the Dragons will kick for goal if presented with the two points in alot of cases.

[That Guy]

Wow.. What happened tonight?
No score in the Cowboys match for 60mins.. When does that happen?!?
Both games going well against any kind of logic or consistency. Ohh well you get that. Onto tomorrow

[benrama]

I was on both plays too, before I saw yours - strang night we weren't even close

[That Guy]

I was on both plays too, before I saw yours - strang night we weren't even close

Yep. No real reason for them to go the other way and both never looked like hitting. One of them nights!
GL for the rest of the round mate

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 55-51 +18.43

Round 15 0-2

Play #3
Eels vs Rabbitohs -4.5 2x 1.98
Rabbitohs should be way too strong in this spot even if the Eels have "turned a corner" according to the coach. Public seems to be hitting the Eels +4.5 strongly which makes the price for the Rabbitohs a little juicier then normal.
Eels played 40mins of good football against the Sharks who played some very simplistic attack and dropped the ball big time. Tonight the Rabbitohs should grind out a win thru the strong forward pack and they know better than anyone who to expose Chris Sandow's weaknesses. Expect Inglis and Taylor to have a big game after a less than impressive showing at Origin on Wed night. Eels had their Grand Final 2 weeks ago - this should be the thud back to earth that was always coming.
Have the Rabbithos by 12 points and locking this in for 2x GL


Play #4
Eels vs Rabbitohs OVER 38.5 1x 1.92
Last time these sides played the total opened at 44.5 and the game ended up well above 50+. We have essentially the same teams playing in slightly wetter conditions and an "improved Eels" side. I'm not buying it that the Eels can sustain prolonged attacks from Merritt, Inglis, Taylor and co without giving up plenty of points. Have this game at 52 points - which should be a 2x play, but rolling with 1x because I'm not willing to put excess of 4units on one game. Way too many points in these sides and big history of OVERS between these two. GL

Play #5
Sharks vs Warriors OVER 38.5 1x 1.92
We saw last week how dangerous the Warriors can be in the wet. This week we'll see similar conditions against a side that can score more points then the Panthers. Sharks missing Gallen in the forwards will give the Warriors some added strength up the middle of the park and more points on the board. Both these teams have had patchy form and for the under to hit we need consistency from them both - don't see this happening. Have the total at 44points for this game and locking in 1x OVER.
GL

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 57-52 +20.31

Round 15 2-3
Great to make up for Friday night's plays going +2 units tonight. Some potential big plays on tomorrow once players are confirmed.. GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 57-52 +20.31

Round 15 2-3

Play #6
Titans -4.5 vs Panthers 2x 1.92
Titans should be much stronger in this spot especially with the return of Myles, Bird, Harrison and Prince. They were decimated last week against the Sharks but missed experienced forwards and Scotty Prince to drive the ship. Titans have been on a roll and the Panthers have lacked serious discipline. Scott Prince has been tweeting his return this afternoon - so not expecting a late pull out like last week. Expect last week's loss to the Sharks to be a blip on the radar as the Titans return to some winning form. Have them winning by 12-14 points and locking this in for 1x at 1.92
GL

Play #7
Titans vs Panthers UNDER 42.5 1x 1.95
Just don't see this game being competitive enough to warrant such a high total - if this game goes OVER it's because the Panthers cop a beating. Titans stats at home defensively are very impressive, giving away just 12 points on average this year. Model has this game set at 32 points with a serious lack of points coming from the Panthers.
Rolling with 1x on the UNDER. GL

Play #8
Tigers vs Roosters OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Just watched this total jump to 40.5 which is still a good buy. We should get lots of points out of this game from two teams that know how to score tries and yet lack defensive cohesion. Roosters on average give away 24 points a game and the Tigers 18 points - so an "average" game from both sides gets this across the line easily. With origin stars returning and the model predicting 52points this is an automatic lock from me at 1 x 1.95.
Good luck!

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 59-53 +22.10

Round 15 4-4 (+1.67)
Good day on the books with the Titans never looking in doubt and the Roosters / Tigers going wayy over. One more play to come for the last game Sea Eagles vs Storm. GL with MNF

[That Guy]

solid as usual TG with MNF to come. appreciate your time and work in here mate

Cheers mate.. hope you had a good weekend!

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 59-53 +22.10

Round 15 4-4 (+1.67)

Play #9
Sea Eagles vs Storm +12.5 3x 1.45
Could not believe my luck when I saw this. We have a Storm side that is out of favour with the squares, sure Slater is missing but the rest of the side is strong. The Storm don't make a habit of losing 2x in a row and we have to go back a long way to see a loss of 12 or more points. It doesn't happen tonight at Brookvale and I'm confident to roll with 3x for 1.45 - great value for the no.1 side on the table.
GL

Play #10
Sea Eagles vs Storm ML 1x 2.55
As above - Storm are out of favour with the punters and we're getting amazing value at 2.55. They should be strong up the centre and Manly have a habit of losing matches we're they are expected to win. All the talk is of the Sea Eagles domination but it shouldn't be that way.. it'll be a close game and Storm have a habit of closing these games out. GL

Play #11
Sea Eagles vs Storm UNDER 36.5 1x 1.95
This should be a close match and we're looking at a total of around 26-28points based on the model. The last time these teams went OVER was 3 years ago in mid 2009 - since then it's been solid UNDER year after year. A little surprised that the total didn't open at 34.5 but the books obviously think this will be a lopsided game with Slater missing. I disagree - I think there will be less points. Storm suffer more in attack then defence with him gone and I have the total as slightly lower.
GL

[That Guy]

Think you got on at the right time, when I looked the storm were into 2.40 and the only total I can see is 34.5 (I only use sportsbet and betfair at the moment though). Could still be some value for the under at 34.5 though, think I'll have a unit on it too. GL!

Got on it this morning.. but didn't have a chance to post until this afternoon. I think those numbers are still pretty good... GL