[Donkey]

taking both your plays today, good luck

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 51-44 +20.73
Round 13 4-3

Storm play cashed today with a strong performance in the second half. Broncos / Knights game is something no one could have predicted. Not often that a total goes over after 28mins!
Can't predict both sides almost completely collapsing in defence. At half time the OVER / UNDER stands at 75points. I doubt there will ever be another game this year where that happens.. especially to two teams who are normally very controlled in defence and don't usually give away many points.
Eyeing off a big play to end the round for Monday night football.
Good luck for the rest of the weekend

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 51-44 +20.73
Round 13 4-3

Last play of the round and we're not afraid of a little Monday night football "hoodoo". Surprised at how much action cellar dwellers the Eels are receiving. GL with your plays either way..

Play #8
Eels vs Sharks OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Going early with this now because the total opened at 44.5 TABSportsbet and I want to jump on this before it rises. Don't trust the Eels defence to hold out the Sharks especially with Carney and Gallen returning to the side. Last time these teams met the total was 42 points and it should be about the same or more this time. Eels give up close to 30points a game on average, so it surprises me the books are throwing faith in their defence. Model has this total at 41.5 which makes OVER 38.5 a good play. Grab this total before it rises as some books are on 44.5 and 42.5 already.
GL

Play #9
Eels vs Sharks -5.5 2x 1.96
We're getting good numbers here for the Sharks because a lot of sharps believe that the Eels are 'due for a win on their recent form'. However looking at stats the opposite is true - the last 2 games the Eels have played great football against two ordinary sides at the moment, being the Raiders and Dragons. If anything this side is due for a major beating by a form side like Cronulla who are coming off wins against the Melbourne Storm and a bad game against the Bulldogs. They will be fired up with the return of Gallen and Carney to regain the form that gave them a great win over the Storm. Moral at the Eels is low and the depressing loss against the Dragons would have hit them hard.
Eels soft defence up the middle should be exploited by Gallen and their heavy forward pack. Coach Flanagan went easy on his side following the loss to the Bulldogs but has stated he won't be so forgiving this week with 2 weeks preparation time. Expect a big effort from Cronulla and they should explode from the start of this match.
Rolling with 2x 1.96 at -5.5. Have the Sharks winning by 8 points so this is a good buy.
GL

[That Guy]

Fair weekend on punt so loading up with the books coin fairly big.
Riding the Sharkys and the overs with you TG, let's cash this shit !!

Saving the best till last hopefully

[That Guy]

I'm on the sharks too, need to make up for some lost ground this weekend, hopefully there is no hoodoo effect!

GL mate

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 51-44 +20.73
Round 13 4-3

Last play of the round and we're not afraid of a little Monday night football "hoodoo". Surprised at how much action cellar dwellers the Eels are receiving. GL with your plays either way..

Play #8
Eels vs Sharks OVER 38.5 1x 1.95
Going early with this now because the total opened at 44.5 TABSportsbet and I want to jump on this before it rises. Don't trust the Eels defence to hold out the Sharks especially with Carney and Gallen returning to the side. Last time these teams met the total was 42 points and it should be about the same or more this time. Eels give up close to 30points a game on average, so it surprises me the books are throwing faith in their defence. Model has this total at 41.5 which makes OVER 38.5 a good play. Grab this total before it rises as some books are on 44.5 and 42.5 already.
GL

Play #9
Eels vs Sharks -5.5 2x 1.96
We're getting good numbers here for the Sharks because a lot of sharps believe that the Eels are 'due for a win on their recent form'. However looking at stats the opposite is true - the last 2 games the Eels have played great football against two ordinary sides at the moment, being the Raiders and Dragons. If anything this side is due for a major beating by a form side like Cronulla who are coming off wins against the Melbourne Storm and a bad game against the Bulldogs. They will be fired up with the return of Gallen and Carney to regain the form that gave them a great win over the Storm. Moral at the Eels is low and the depressing loss against the Dragons would have hit them hard.
Eels soft defence up the middle should be exploited by Gallen and their heavy forward pack. Coach Flanagan went easy on his side following the loss to the Bulldogs but has stated he won't be so forgiving this week with 2 weeks preparation time. Expect a big effort from Cronulla and they should explode from the start of this match.
Rolling with 2x 1.96 at -5.5. Have the Sharks winning by 8 points so this is a good buy.
GL

Line has been hiked up to 40.5 / 41.5 at most books now.. good to get some value on the books

[s2230011]

TAB has this bet of Burt and John Morris scoring 1 or more tries between them YES/NO. Its even money seems odd when Burt hasnt crossed the line this year and Morris twice. Morris is starting from the bench tonight and between the two there hasnt been one line break all year.

What do you think ?

[That Guy]

TAB has this bet of Burt and John Morris scoring 1 or more tries between them YES/NO. Its even money seems odd when Burt hasnt crossed the line this year and Morris twice. Morris is starting from the bench tonight and between the two there hasnt been one line break all year.

What do you think ?

I'd pass on it.. but that's just me - for the reasons you've stated above. For the last 2 years Morris has only scored 2 tries for the entire season and Burt is about the same / hasn't scored this year at all.

[s2230011]

I was going to jump on the NO for 1.90 not the yes =0)

[s2230011]

They also have Burt to score a try at any time is $2.10, seems like crappy odds but puts the exotic bet in prespective. I thought it was a great bet but I might lay off

[That Guy]

I was going to jump on the NO for 1.90 not the yes =0)

ahhh.. well that makes sense!

[benrama]

S22 - great bet if I can get to a tab I'm on it.

TG - like the over too, weather has cleared up here in Sydney today. It's 39.5 at Pinny which is reasonable. Holding St George to low points means nothing, saints offense is anemic. Cronulla have a higher scoring record away from home too historically.

Don't like picking a side, Eels can take this game, they had more metres than sharks when they last, and showed they could beat manly at home. Who knows which eels turns up tonight.

BOL!

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 52-45 +19.68
End Round 13 5-4

Wow.. Left for dinner at half time and just checked the score.
Monday night hoodoo strikes again. Laying low on picking winners for the short term and back to where the money's at - totals.
Good to cash the solid OVER tonight.
Ended the week in the positive which is good. Pissed that the Sharks couldn't stick it to a team that looked well & truly beat in the first half.
GL for the rest if the week. Next week gets interesting again with Origin players missing...

[That Guy]

S22 - great bet if I can get to a tab I'm on it.

TG - like the over too, weather has cleared up here in Sydney today. It's 39.5 at Pinny which is reasonable. Holding St George to low points means nothing, saints offense is anemic. Cronulla have a higher scoring record away from home too historically.

Don't like picking a side, Eels can take this game, they had more metres than sharks when they last, and showed they could beat manly at home. Who knows which eels turns up tonight.

BOL!

This was/is a great summation Benrama... pissed I didn't go bigger on the OVER.
Appreciate your thoughts mate - you were spot on with this.
GL this week

[s2230011]

I split between the over and that exotic bet. Burt hasnt scored a try all year and when he was limping in the first 5 mins I thought it might be the easiest bet ever. But then in the 2nd half he gets in with his first touch in opposition half all game. He got in again which made me feel better - actually the over wouldnt have cashed without his two tries.

With De Gois back the last couple of weeks Morris isnt seeing much game time i pondered this bet long and hard - the numbers looked too good .. Oh well, I got conned into it.

[That Guy]

I split between the over and that exotic bet. Burt hasnt scored a try all year and when he was limping in the first 5 mins I thought it might be the easiest bet ever. But then in the 2nd half he gets in with his first touch in opposition half all game. He got in again which made me feel better - actually the over wouldnt have cashed without his two tries.

With De Gois back the last couple of weeks Morris isnt seeing much game time i pondered this bet long and hard - the numbers looked too good .. Oh well, I got conned into it.

Talk about Burt returning to form!
The bloke hasn't scored all year and hasn't looked like scoring at all. Was a good exotic bet on a bad night.
If the Sharks had brought their game in the second half it would have been a big big night. Ohh well.
Makes the lines on the Sharks more interesting this week. GL

[benrama]

No worries TG, you've been the premier NRL capper on here this year so congrats so far on your season. Surprised Sharks let Eels dominate the second half ... But I also think sharks are over rated, very one dimensional in attack with lots of one out running. Its their ability to generate repeat sets an defense that keeps them in games.

Origin makes things interesting the next two weeks, I also will be sticking to totals. Very interested to see the Sharks vs Titans line ...

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 52-45 +19.68

Round 14

Halfway thru the season and the goal of reaching +30 units by the end of regular rounds looks to be on track.
GL this weekend.


Play #1
Storm vs Tigers OVER 38.5 1x 2.20
Waited for this play and got a good price. Without 3 of the Storm gun players the attack suffers but so does the defence. Tigers should make line breaks on the fringes but Storm are still very strong up the middle of the park. Without players missing this game should have gotten to at least 48pts on my model. I think the Storm are undervalued by the books, I'm not willing to make an ML or points play but I think they'll run up the total. Last week the Tigers cashed the over without the other team scoring a point, this week we're getting a lower total and an opposition who have way more points then the Raiders.
Locking this in for 1x.

GL

[That Guy]

No worries TG, you've been the premier NRL capper on here this year so congrats so far on your season. Surprised Sharks let Eels dominate the second half ... But I also think sharks are over rated, very one dimensional in attack with lots of one out running. Its their ability to generate repeat sets an defense that keeps them in games.

Origin makes things interesting the next two weeks, I also will be sticking to totals. Very interested to see the Sharks vs Titans line ...

Cheers mate
You're correct about Shark's attack - If kicks aren't spot on they really struggle and look one dimensional. Sharks vs Titans will be a very interesting match this weekend especially with Origin stars missing.
GL this weekend.

[Optional]

A bit wet in Melbourne tonight. :\

[That Guy]

What a crappy game so far.. maybe they can kick another 35points?
Not looking good

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 52-46 +18.68

Round 14 0-1

Both teams had their chances last night.. but at least at half time we didn't die wondering if the OVER was going to hit. Knew something was up when the Tigers kick for goal after 8mins. Onto today............ GL


Play #2
Knights vs Raiders UNDER 43.5 2x 1.95
It'll be a schlop-fest that's for sure.. but with both these terribly out of form sides missing their "good players" it'll be a hard ask to find the line. Crunching the numbers to get this over 43 requires a gigantic effort from the Knights and a complete lack of defence for the Raiders. Based on my model this gets to 36points tops which gives us a 2-try variance which I'm happy to play, even in this crap-fest.
Wayne Bennett was furious with the Knights lack of defence last week - so I'd expect some kind of improvement this week. Have this game as a slow grind-em out game with lots of errors to slow down the pace. Raiders away from home have relied on heavy defence to slow down opponents and lack confidence in attack - let's hope this continues tonight
1x 1.95 GL


Play #3
Knights -4.5 vs Raiders 1x 1.91
Can't see the Knights losing in this spot. Josh Dugan out of position is a gift and he looked lost last week against the Tigers. Despite the Raiders having an imposing forward pack they are not being used efficiently. The home side have a good record against the Raiders and should be more prepared under Bennett to win this game. Defence is all we need to see from the Knights and even though they got lapped last week against the Broncos they still showed some fight back after being down almost 30-0. Being home at Hunter Stadium will be a massive lift for the Knights.
Locking the Knights in for an ugly game at -4.5 1x 1.91
GL

[That Guy]

updated: NRL Season 2012 52-48 +15.68

Round 14 0-3
Under held to 73mins and looked like it might cash but wasn't to be. Can the Knights play any worse? Being belted by the Raiders is just embarrassing, especially when there defence looks 5x more solid. Ouch.
Going through a rough patch that had to happen after after a few solid weeks of positive plays. Disappointing but UNDER should have been the play tonight.... onto tomorrow!
GL

[MrXYZ]

A tough loss on that under, if Raiders had held on at half time & not gifted Mason an easy try, who knows. That's the NRL for you. Good luck with the rest of round 14, let's hit back with some winners.

[That Guy]

A tough loss on that under, if Raiders had held on at half time & not gifted Mason an easy try, who knows. That's the NRL for you. Good luck with the rest of round 14, let's hit back with some winners.

Cheers mate.. you too

[That Guy]

You were on it too? I had about 6 units on it in a multi, couldn't believe it went over, it was such a good play. Not much you can do about that, just bad luck there.

Yeah it was a good play on bad day!
2-3 easy tries on soft defence.. oh well

[That Guy]

NRL Season 2012 52-48 +15.68

Round 14 0-3

Play #4
Sharks vs Titans OVER 30.5 2x 1.95
Cannot believe how low this total has fallen. Last night it was 38.5 and the UNDER looked pretty good. We'll have a wet field and slippery conditions but both teams do pretty well in these conditions. Titans are still a lethal team with Origin players missing and more importantly they'll have Prince to drive them around the field - Sharks without Carney's creativity can look lost. Titans will look to outrun the Sharks and we should see points on the fringes. It doesn't take much for this total to go over especially when you have players out of position - Titans have the speed advantage and Sharks the forwards.
Rolling with 2x for this GL

[That Guy]

added:

Play #5
Roosters vs Broncos UNDER 36.5 1x 1.90
It's been a while since these teams have lined up - Round 6 last year. We saw a preview of how the Broncos play around Origin time when they took on the Storm minus a few regulars. They managed only 10points during that game and the Storm put on 34. It will be similar conditions today in Sydney with the weather and at a conservative estimate you would put Roosters at 24 points most. Baby Broncos defence has been pretty good in the past and without the players missing I have this total at 34. This is a solid UNDER game and with Corey Parker missing it adds even more value. Can't see a complete Rooster whitewash in this position - especially in heavy rain.
Going with UNDER 36.5 1x
GL

[That Guy]

Prince missing for Titans - but this is still a solid play

[angelo63]

updated: NRL Season 2012 52-48 +15.68

Round 14 0-3
Under held to 73mins and looked like it might cash but wasn't to be. Can the Knights play any worse? Being belted by the Raiders is just embarrassing, especially when there defence looks 5x more solid. Ouch.
Going through a rough patch that had to happen after after a few solid weeks of positive plays. Disappointing but UNDER should have been the play tonight.... onto tomorrow!
GL

Hey mate the Under was certainly the play last night, Knights are just woeful whilst Raiders are not much better. Over just hit in the Sharks game as im typing , Great work...Soccer has been good so far as i hit all 4 ganes so far and in the Germany game had the goal scorer to cover the outlay on Portugal. Tonight the Draw in the first game looks solid as it does oin the Ireland game , ill be playing the Dogs with the asian handicap again..Good Luck with The Roosters game im with you all the way. Keen on the WArriors tom as well..