[kingsr]

Hey Guys,

The seasons are approaching, and I cant fricken wait! I'm sure we are all eager for League Union AFL!

Every year around this time, I put some fairly big futures bets on. Last year it was Melb Storm top 8/Geelong top 8 double paying $1.85. An easy 85% ROI in 7 months! I played this for 10k and will be doing something similar this year....What I want to do is discuss all variables for the bet this year. I'm outlaying maybe 20k this year.

So here is what I'm thinking...

Newcastle top 8/ Geelong top 8 = 1.84 with NSW TAB - Newcastle made the 8 last year with a shitty roster. They now have Bennet as coach, Boyd, Buderus and Snowden. The guts and determination of newcastle has impressed me for many years. I can't see anything but a top 8 spot for them.

Geelong speaks for itself. We dont even need to discuss if they make it or not. The talk here should be whether they make top 4 or not.

Other options I have looked at...

Canterbury Bulldogs top 8/Westcoast eagles top 8 = approx 2.60 with various books.

Bulldogs just missed last year, coming 9th. They now have one of the best coaches in the business and the word is he is causing FIREWORKS at canterbury! He's expecting nothing less than the best and demands excellence. I've seen 1st hand the boys whinging how tough training is. Anything less than a top 8 finish for Canterbury this year is not a question! Also, word is we aree getting SBW back! A new side lead by the tenacious new captain Mick Ennis.

West Coast with the home ground advantage which we saw last year was an instant win! I havent researched much into this one. Im in the process now, and will post accordingly.


Other possible combo...

Melb Storm top 4/ Geelong Top 4 = $3.54 Centrebet

These 2 teams always make the top 4. It's really a no brainer. But the depth of Melb does worry me a little, combined with the Rep game duty that will call upon their TOP 3 Players, Smith, slater, cronk. I'm a big beliver in thiose 3 players and believe you can throw any players around them to make a team. Those 3 are pivotol to this team. An injury to either one could see them slip to the lower half of the 8.




Please feel free to share your thoughts. And convince why I shouldn't bet these this year. Who's with me this year? Let's ride this together

[kingsr]

No one really interested in Free money?

Here's my first bet

tab bet1.jpg

[hawley]

You that confident in Newcastle bro?


I like their potential especially with Bennett at the helm and Boyd at the back. I think they are a few years off making any real noise but top 8 should be good.

Who else do we see making the top 8?

Melbourne, Manly, Tigers are rock solid locks

Dragons should be fine but interesting to see their progression and if they get a new identity. Broncos have plenty of young talent but huge question marks with Lockyer, especially considering how many close games they play. can Peter Wallace get it done this year? I'm not a fan at all

Rabbitohs should make some noise this year finally if they can get healthy esp Inglis but will need Sutton to be good without that fukn grub Sandow.

Cowboys if Thurston and Bowen are healthy and they maintain their fortress at home.

Bulldogs, Raiders and Roosters are slight unknowns for me

Warriors will win minor premiership and GF no worries



Don't follow AFL since we get 0 coverage over here so will probably be blindly tailing others this year.

[kingsr]

Yeah definetely Newcastle. They made the 8 last year, and have now only become stronger. I actually think the 1.60 price is way off! Most books have it at 1.45-1.50.

My top 8 stands as it did last year, except 1 team to slip out with the dogs replacing them. I'll say dragons miss the 8, or tigers, and maybe bris without locky. Melbourne has been sooo good for so long, but something has to eventually give. They will make the 8, providing the top 3 are healthy during the looong season.

Souths? They will never make the 8 or win anything EVER! Not in our lifetime anyway <-------- believe that!

Very confident in Newcastle, as my bets states. Im thinking of putting another 10k on, I just need a little push!

20k investment for a net profit of 16,800 over 7 months. A return of $2400 per month

[kingsr]

Also I hear SBW will be announced this week as a BULLDOG! That's more reason as to why i like the dogs to make the 8!

[benrama]

Great thread, I'm going to be going big on futures this year too, and will add more detailed thoughts on this later.

Love the Newcastle Top 8 bet, and you got a great line at Tab Sportsbet. Centrebet/Sportsbet who I consider much sharper on lines have them at $1.40.

Storm/Knights is my main futures play, I just love to go with the best coaches in the game and Bellamy and Bennett are those for me.

West Coast top 8 / Manly top 4 is my favourite "speculator" paying $3.70. I'm also concerned with Melbourne being hit hard come SOO time and losing enough games to be in the fringe of the top 4 - Manly have more depth IMO.

Anyway - more on this later, just thought I'd share my brief thoughts.

[kingsr]

Oh and Manly lost their coach to the bulldogs. He was the backbone of that team. Not sure how players will be without Des Hasler.

[hawley]

SBW

Is the rumour that he is getting out of his super rugby / NZRU contract this year? or joining the doggies next season?

Guy is all about himself. Sooner he get out of NZ the better.

[kingsr]

Great thread, I'm going to be going big on futures this year too, and will add more detailed thoughts on this later.

Love the Newcastle Top 8 bet, and you got a great line at Tab Sportsbet. Centrebet/Sportsbet who I consider much sharper on lines have them at $1.40.

Storm/Knights is my main futures play, I just love to go with the best coaches in the game and Bellamy and Bennett are those for me.

West Coast top 8 / Manly top 4 is my favourite "speculator" paying $3.70. I'm also concerned with Melbourne being hit hard come SOO time and losing enough games to be in the fringe of the top 4 - Manly have more depth IMO.

Anyway - more on this later, just thought I'd share my brief thoughts.

Hey Benny,

I like Manly a lot too but I have concerns over the new coaching and staff roster. Hasler, Sheens, Bellamy, Bennet are the BIG 4 coaches in league. I struggle to believe that either of these teams will miss the 8.

Freemantle are a great top 8 bet too imo. They have a better player roster than West Coast, although injuries have cost them in the past. Last year they were swamped by injury and lacked depth, but a healthy season could see them well into the top 8.

There's a prop on centrebet. GWS to win no game/1 game or more LOL check it out.

[kingsr]

SBW

Is the rumour that he is getting out of his super rugby / NZRU contract this year? or joining the doggies next season?

Guy is all about himself. Sooner he get out of NZ the better.

This year. I been told (a very good source) that an announcement will be made this week re SBW to Bulldogs. It's hard to believe, I know, but I have faith in my source. He's been spot on numerous times before. But It's never solid, till the fat lady sings...

[kingsr]

Trials start this week in league. Prices may shorten/rise based on team performances.

[hawley]

This year. I been told (a very good source) that an announcement will be made this week re SBW to Bulldogs. It's hard to believe, I know, but I have faith in my source. He's been spot on numerous times before. But It's never solid, till the fat lady sings...

would not surprise me. he returned to domestic rugby to play in and win a world cup. Now he can tick that off he has no reason to hang around, may as well return to better money.

I wouldn't mind seeing him back playing footy though. Would most doggies fans welcome him back? I guess you would much rather have him than any other NRL club have him?

[kingsr]

would not surprise me. he returned to domestic rugby to play in and win a world cup. Now he can tick that off he has no reason to hang around, may as well return to better money.

I wouldn't mind seeing him back playing footy though. Would most doggies fans welcome him back? I guess you would much rather have him than any other NRL club have him?

I'd take him back in a heartbeat, but not all fans share my views.

Under Malcolm Noad, the club was run poorly and the players hated him including SBW. He had the balls to take a stand. Now, under Todd Greenberg and the new coaching staff, I think we will see a different attitude. He was seen having dinner with Des Hasler and Todd Greenberg last week

[hawley]

I find this quite believable because like I said he is only interested in one person and that's himself.

With a manager like Nasser he is capable of doing anything. Shame it will be my local super rugby team he walks out on though.

Wonder if he will take his new 19 year old GF with him...

Are the Bulldogs going to be good this year? looking forward to seeing Barba, especially if he is hitting offloads from SBW

[kingsr]

I find this quite believable because like I said he is only interested in one person and that's himself.

With a manager like Nasser he is capable of doing anything. Shame it will be my local super rugby team he walks out on though.

Wonder if he will take his new 19 year old GF with him...

Are the Bulldogs going to be good this year? looking forward to seeing Barba, especially if he is hitting offloads from SBW

I just jizzed in my pants!

Hawley, Hasler has been causing fireworks over there. Anything less than a top 8 birth is unnaceptable by any standard! I will fold and pack away all my supporter gear, if they dont make the 8.

Emotions aside, yes I do think they make the 8. I think the top coached teams (bellamy, bennet, sheens, hasler) make the 8. We came 9th last year, with an under 7s coach (kevin Moore).

[Beniphone]

I wouldn't be banking on sbw for this season, signed chiefs/moved to Hamilton/fighting for nz heavy weight title.

I wouldn't even put money on him returning to the doggies when he goes back

[hawley]

I wouldn't be banking on sbw for this season, signed chiefs/moved to Hamilton/fighting for nz heavy weight title.

I wouldn't even put money on him returning to the doggies when he goes back

this is why I was surprised but come on bro would anything SBW did really surprise you?

[Beniphone]

Nothing surprises me anymore, not even him f\*\*\*ing Matthew ridges daughter ha.

[kingsr]

Yeah I'm not banking anything on him...just what ive heard. Maybe a 2013 bulldogs signing? I'm not sure...

[kingsr]

Also gona do HAWKS top 4/Manly top 8. Paying approx $3.20

Will post reciept soon

[kingsr]

Ok here's a speculator that I really LIKE! So I have invested accordingly...

Reasoning:

HAWKS TOP 4 - Collingwood have a new coach and some rumblings. Gee have players retiring, so they must feel their dynasty has already peaked. Carlton have a shit coach. West Coast cant do any better than last year imo. I think the HAWK will go very close to winning it all this year. They've had all the off season to think about how the fuk they lost to Coll in the grand final qualifier! They have the deepest team and can cover any of the players including FRANKLIN. The odds that I'm getting are way off thanks to NSW TAB!

MANLY TOP 4 - Really going against my policy here, because league can't be such a tough sport to predict, especially this early in the season. But this is the reason behind the madness.

Daly Cherry Evans
Keiran Foran
Brett Stewart
Jamie Lyon
Steve Matai
Anthony Watmough
Tony Williams
Glenn Stewart
Davis Williams
Jason King

More rep players than any other team! Anything less than a top 4 birth is unnaceptable for this team regardless of coach. They were gutted when Hasler left, which gives me more hope for this bet. They have a MASSIVE point to prove in 2012. That the players ability extends greater to that of a coach. Manly top 4 for me with that stunning roster!

So here it is...


tab bet2.jpg




Centrebet price is $4.20 for the same bet. How can I refuse, getting $6.00.



Another bet to soon follow.

[kingsr]

My next 2 bets are similar to that above, but a little safer.

Manly Top 8 - Hawks Top 8


tab bet3.jpg


Hawks Top 4 - Manly Top 8


tab bet4.jpg


I believe Hawks will finish 1st or 2nd. Manly Top 8 is a no brainer with reasons I posted above in previous post.


Long Season! 7 months for a 20k net profit, if i can hit them all

[kingsr]

Thinking of doing a MELB storm top 4 - Hawks Top 4 Double.

HAWKS is ridiculous price at $2.00!

[Bazz27]

hawks may even win the flag this yr, i like them in afl/nrl title doubles with some outsiders @80 & 100/1 shots like coupled with n/z, tigs, eels, saints.. & hawley i luv ya mate n your input but disagree on little sandow mate, he's no grub pls n he can play.....

[Bazz27]

kingr, u on the super bowl 2morrow ???

[brettels]

Kingsr, you da man!!! I wouldn't put that much money on Newcastle just yet!!! Thats ballsy mate!

[hawley]

hawks may even win the flag this yr, i like them in afl/nrl title doubles with some outsiders @80 & 100/1 shots like coupled with n/z, tigs, eels, saints.. & hawley i luv ya mate n your input but disagree on little sandow mate, he's no grub pls n he can play.....

Kid can definitely play, he turned it on big last season after signing his new contract but c'mon bro he is pretty grubby.

[kingsr]

kingr, u on the super bowl 2morrow ???

Hey Bazz, Sorry i just checked in here! Yes I was on the under 55 game total! Grabbed it a couple weeks ago without overthinking it. I expected the number to be around 45, when I saw 55 I quickly jumped on for $300.

[kingsr]

Kingsr, you da man!!! I wouldn't put that much money on Newcastle just yet!!! Thats ballsy mate!

It's Newcastle to make top 8. I'm confident in this team more than most teams to make the 8. $1.60 is a ridiculous price!

I actually like Bulldogs to make the 8 too but I cant bet with emotion cos thats my team!

[kingsr]

hawks may even win the flag this yr, i like them in afl/nrl title doubles with some outsiders @80 & 100/1 shots like coupled with n/z, tigs, eels, saints.. & hawley i luv ya mate n your input but disagree on little sandow mate, he's no grub pls n he can play.....

I think HAWKS will win the title this year, if not they will come very very close!

[benrama]

You're a game man betting your money that quickly, I spend hours and hours on my future bets, lol

I'm only going to make one large futures bet, and I've decided it will be Hawthorn (AFL)/Melbourne(NRL). I wanted to include the Knights however it was their draw that really got me second thinking things.

Here is the Knights 2012 draw, and I've put an asterisk next to the games the Knights should win, a ? next to the games that could be close and a X next to games they are a good chance of losing.

H Dragons ?
A Sharks *
H Broncos ?
A Bulldogs ?
A Storm X
H Eels *
A Dragons X
H Panthers *
A Roosters ?
H Cowboys *
H Titans *
A Broncos X
H Raiders *
Bye
H Tigers ?
A Eels *
A Rabbitohs ?
H Sea Eagles X
A Warriors X
A Raiders *
H Bulldogs *
H Sharks *
A Sea Eagles X
A Cowboys X
H Rabbitohs *

That gives me 11 wins, 7 losses (of course - likely there'll be "should win" losses balanced by "should lose" wins) and 6 "up in the airs" - should be good for a Top 8, however, IF those "up in the airs" go 1-5, or 2-4 things could get tight, and I wouldn't want to be sweating bullets with 7 games to go and playing Manly twice, the Warriors, Bulldogs and Cowboys away.

[kingsr]

They play the storm and tigers only once this year. According to your calculations, they win 11 with 2 byes giving them 26 points which should be almost enough to see them make the final 8. I have them winning 14 games this year and finishing on 30 points.

Benrama I spent hours and days choosing my futures. In saying that, I do like your hawks/melb play and I'm contemplating the same play as I mentioned earlier.

The play that worries me is manly top 4. Top 4 in league is so hard to predict. Hence the reason for my smallest future bet consisting of a league top 4 (manly).

Good luck to us! As long as new/gee make top 8, I'll be happy!

Oh and btw, prices on the teams we like are shortening in price...manly is now 1.50 for top 8 and new is also 1.50. Melb is 1.40. All 3 have gone down 10 cents with nsw TAB.

[benrama]

Don't worry, I'm sure you've done your research too! Just feels like there wasn't much time to discuss the futures plays on this thread before they were locked in

My concern is that it is conceivable that Knights start off 1-6, e.g. losing to Dragons twice (they lost to St George at Ausgrid last season), losing to Broncos, Bulldogs splitting games against Eels/Sharks - in which case you are shitting bricks from the get go.

I'm a die-hard Knights fan so I'll sure as hell be cheering that it doesn't happen, but new coach changes can sometimes take time to come into effect, so that's a concern.

Melbourne, in contrast, start with Raiders, Rabbitohs, Titans and Roosters and then Knights (at home) - I like their chances of being at least 3-2 or better.

Hawthorn I think will make top 8 no problem, but as for Top 4, their schedule also has me worried. In their first 6 games they face:

COLLINGWOOD H
GEELONG CATS A
ADELAIDE H
WEST COAST EAGLES A
SYDNEY SWANS H
ST KILDA A

Could easily be a 3-3 start there or worse, making the top 4 a challenge from the get go.

I'm thinking that West Coast Eagles top 8 is even a better value bet than Hawthorn now I've done more research - look at their schedule till week 19:

Western Bulldogs A ?
Melbourne H *
GWS A *
Hawthorn H X
Richmond A ?
North Melb H *
Essendon A ?
St Kilda H *
Freemantle H *
Lions A *
Bye
Carlton H *
Collingwood A X
Suns H *
North Melb A *
Swans H *
Adelaide A *
Lions H *
Freemantle A ?

Looks like at least 12 wins from these games, which has you a lock for the top 8.

WCE top 8 / Melb top 8 is paying $2.03, when you're betting significant $ that's a big difference. Still thinking this one through ...

[Beniphone]

Just remember 2010/2011 when the roosters made the GF, then we're none existent the following season.

[kingsr]

I like the WC/Melb top 8 bet.

I think that the Hawks facing these teams early works in their favour. They'll come out firing after losing to Coll in that epic GF qualifier last year. I'll take 3/3 in the opening 6 rounds, 16-18 wins will be enough to get them in the 4.

Regardless of when they play stronger teams, they still have to play them in the course of the season.