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Centrebet lines Vs Sportsbet lines for AFL
Noticed something that seems unusual to me.
Here's an example from today:
Centrebet:
At the same time:
Sportsbet:
The MLs are different especially for GC, but the lines are the same! Same for all games.
I assume they use a different formula to calculate the ML from lines? Any thoughts?
Last edited by Lookingtostart; 06-15-11 at 10:36 PM.
It will fluctuate up until kick off. Adjustments are made according to bets made and other factors like key players ins and outs etc. Centrebet may have taken more money on one side which explains the shortened price. They are trying to attract punters to bet on GC, to even up the bets taken on Hawks.
It pays to Shop around before you place your bets
My fault for not being clear enough, what I meant was:
Look at the money lines for both centrebet and sportsbet. Take Gold Coast as an example, sportsbet have them at $14.50 and centrebet have them at $16.60 on the ML. Quite a bit of difference. However, both centrebet and sportsbet are giving the same even money line at plus or minus 68.5!
So if you're picking the ML or the even money then it's not going to matter because you can see what they're paying and it's not going to matter, you can shop around...
But if you're picking you're own line, then you might want to find out which one pays better for close games and which one pays better for thrashings.
I think it would also pay to find out which one has the more accurate system in determining lines/money lines
Last edited by Lookingtostart; 06-16-11 at 01:07 AM.
The ML and the line are 2 completely different markets. I have seen many times a ML not truly represent the line market. In this case CENTREBET have offered better odds for GC on the ML market....No big deal, its a competitive industry or maybe they are trying to attract money on GC?
Thanks
I didn't know they were different markets.
Who has the better pick your own line odds?
I'm fairly sure PYOL is only offered by CENTREBET
kingsr - sportsbet has been doing PYOL all this year and its staying, i just never check the centrebet pyol lines so wondering if someone ever compares week to week and knows who offers the better odds in that area!
Yeah, both have been doing it.
I have only just noticed the difference, but it seems centrebet are giving better value this week for both the ML and the line market. But that's just for this week.
I was going back and forth, sportbet's PYOL doesn't match their even money line, that has always been the case this year. It seems they're charging more vig because of the "luxury" of being able to PYOL, that's just a guess.
Centrebet's PYOL does match (after just having a look) so they are not charging extra.
I have noticed other such "anomalies" from sportsbet, actually, it's them being more stingy.
Last edited by Lookingtostart; 06-16-11 at 10:33 AM.
Please share those other anomalies. Sportsbet is my main and pretty much only place I bet with so would like to know.
Actually, there's only one other one I can think of the top of my head. It's the "first team to score" vs "first scoring play". "First scoring play" is charging too much vig.
Someone pointed out another anomaly which I can't remember, read posts 254 - 258 in this thread:
AFL opening spreads
You'll find these sorts of things here and there with sportsbet, you'll just have to flick back and forth between their plays. I'll get back on this thread if I find something worth noting.
Last edited by Lookingtostart; 06-17-11 at 04:17 AM.
I dont actually see anything wrong with that! explain to me too much vig so i can understand.
SportsBet.com.au:
Hawthorn Gold Coast tomorrow -
h2h $1.03/$14.5 (3.98% hold)
spread -67.5 ($1.92/$1.92) (4.17% hold)
Pick Your Own line -95.5 ($4.2/$1.19) (7.84% hold)
They are charging almost twice as much to play pick your own lines on Sportsbet compared to their head to head prices - Sportsbet pyol is a suckers bet for sure.
Given how well they move their lines on the Aussie sports I would guess that the pyol's would be very tough to beat over the space of a season and if you were beating them - you'd actually be beating the traditional spreads for far more money - so why would you bother with the pyol's.
Last edited by Duff85; 06-17-11 at 06:18 AM.
TOP SPORTSBOOK
WINNER
5/18/2012
SBR WORLD
POKER CUP
3rd Place
2012
CentreBet pyol tomorrow -
Hawthorn Gold Coast
$1.03/$12.60 (5.02% hold)
spread -67.5 ($1.92/$1.92) (4.17% hold)
Pick Your Own line -94.5 ($3.4/$1.26) (8.78% hold)
Same story for CentreBet - pyol is a mugs bet.
TOP SPORTSBOOK
WINNER
5/18/2012
SBR WORLD
POKER CUP
3rd Place
2012
The over-round (Vigorish, or simply "vig", or "juice") is what gives the bookmaker their profit.
If you look at any betting market it is supposed to attract 50% of the action on both sides. If the bookmaker is successful in doing so they will guarantee themselves a profit based on the vig.
In the example above if they took a proportional amount of action (ie the amount that they would pay out on winning bets was the same regardless of the result) Sportsbet would expect to keep around 4% of the money wagered head to head, 4% of the money at the spread and almost 9% of the money wagered on pick your own lines.
TOP SPORTSBOOK
WINNER
5/18/2012
SBR WORLD
POKER CUP
3rd Place
2012
Sounds technical but thanks for explanation.
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