[BGboothA]

Kentucky Derby Futures as of February 22:
1. Bobby's Kitten 45-1
2. Cairo Prince 10-1
3. California Chrome 60-1
4. Candy Boy 20-1
5. Commissioner 28-1
6. Conquest Titan 35-1
7. Havana 40-1
8. Honor Code 12-1
9. Indianapolis 35-1
10.Intense Holiday 30-1
11. Kristo 50-1
12. Matterhorn 75-1
13. Midnight Hawk 40-1
14. Noble Moon 45-1
15. Rise Up 45-1
16. Samraat 50-1
17. Shared Belief 15-1
18. Strong Mandate 15-1
19. Tapiture 28-1
20. Tonalist 65-1
21. Top Billing 14-1
22. Uncle Sigh 75-1
23. Vicar's in Trouble 20-1

Its amazing how many of those aren't in the field at all. I have futures on Samraat (32-1) and Intense Holiday (30-1). ANd then I have quite a few futures in Pool 3 with Samraat finishing second in Exactas. (5 alive I think)

[Draynay]

General A Rod has been training well and loves the surface at Churchill. He is one of the few that is bred to run all day. He will be one of the few that keep running the last 200 yards. 1 1/4 is a different race and breeding is going to show up at the end.... Churchill is not a speedway so some of these so called speed horses are not going to look like speed horse after running a mile on the surface.

[BGboothA]

General A Rod has been training well and loves the surface at Churchill. He is one of the few that is bred to run all day. He will be one of the few that keep running the last 200 yards. 1 1/4 is a different race and breeding is going to show up at the end.... Churchill is not a speedway so some of these so called speed horses are not going to look like speed horse after running a mile on the surface.

Uh Oh, I agree with something you said!

[mikemca]

Wildcat Red who no one has been able to get by except one horse not in the race and who would be favored to win if the race was a mile is going to suddenly spit the bit with the lead at the top of the stretch and let 7 horses go by him

1 1/4 is a different race and breeding is going to show up at the end.... Churchill is not a speedway so some of these so called speed horses are not going to look like speed horse after running a mile on the surface.

And this is why your posts don't hold much weight

[Draynay]

Wildcat Red was not on the lead in the Hutcheson. He stalked the pace nicely and ran away at the top of the stretch. Wildcat in his next 2 races took the lead because speed was able to carry at GP. If you think for one minute that Wildcat is going to the front in Kentucky and that is that you would be wrong. I expect him to do what he did in the Hutcheson and stalk the pace. Do I think the distance will be tough for him ? Yes I do... but it will be tough for 17 or 18 of the 20 horses in the race. Even when Wildcat tires so will nearly all remaining in the field. Going 1 1/8th Wildcat is 10 lengths better than 3 out of 4 in the race. There are only a few that will have a chance to catch him in the final 200 yards and the list is very short. General A Rod, Danza, Wicked Strong, and maybe a rail riding Ride on Curlin has an outside shot..... that is it. I am taking General A Rod for the win because he is the only horse in the race that has proven he can stay with him and the added distance should help him.

Maybe you need to watch Wildcat Red in the FOY hold off the Kentucky Derby winner. That race was epic and will go down as one of the great battles of 2014. When was the last time you saw 2 horses in a major stakes race battle like that from start to finish ???

[BGboothA]

When was the last time you saw 2 horses in a major stakes race battle like that from start to finish ???

Samraat / Uncle Sigh (twice) same as your two from Florida. Only on a much fairer track.

[Draynay]

Samraat stalked him in the Withers and sat a 1/2 length back and in mid stretch took over and won by a length. Watch the FOY again. They fought for the lead back and forth all the way from start to finish and it took a picture to tell you who won. Two of the best went at it and they will do the same in Kentucky.

[Heppy10]

12 horses is a lot different then 20, highly doubt both of them are going to get the lead

[Draynay]

I would put Castellano on Danza in a hurry !!!

[mikemca]

Wildcat Red was not on the lead in the Hutcheson. He stalked the pace nicely and ran away at the top of the stretch. Wildcat in his next 2 races took the lead because speed was able to carry at GP. If you think for one minute that Wildcat is going to the front in Kentucky and that is that you would be wrong. I expect him to do what he did in the Hutcheson and stalk the pace. Do I think the distance will be tough for him ? Yes I do... but it will be tough for 17 or 18 of the 20 horses in the race. Even when Wildcat tires so will nearly all remaining in the field. Going 1 1/8th Wildcat is 10 lengths better than 3 out of 4 in the race. There are only a few that will have a chance to catch him in the final 200 yards and the list is very short. General A Rod, Danza, Wicked Strong, and maybe a rail riding Ride on Curlin has an outside shot..... that is it. I am taking General A Rod for the win because he is the only horse in the race that has proven he can stay with him and the added distance should help him.

Maybe you need to watch Wildcat Red in the FOY hold off the Kentucky Derby winner. That race was epic and will go down as one of the great battles of 2014. When was the last time you saw 2 horses in a major stakes race battle like that from start to finish ???

You can reinvent yourself as many times as you wish, that's the beauty of the internet but anyone that visits this forum knows who is new at this and who isn't.One post your saying that Wildcat Red will be just as good at 10 panels because he is good at 8 and then a week later nvm it's about breeding but still touting Wildcat Red .Someone like you pops up every year at this time.

[BGboothA]

Someone like you pops up every year at this time.

Yuup. Although this has to be the first one to call you new.

[Draynay]

mikemca.... my point is Wildcat Red is not cheap speed. Leave him off your tickets and let us know how you do .....

[blackbox]

Mike-thanks for your thoughts on racing- your reputation speaks for itself. gl to all!!

[TonyP]

Im not leaving CC off my tickets either

[mikemca]

Yuup. Although this has to be the first one to call you new.

Mike-thanks for your thoughts on racing- your reputation speaks for itself. gl to all!!

Thx guys...BG you do good work with your site.

mikemca.... my point is Wildcat Red is not cheap speed. Leave him off your tickets and let us know how you do .....

I never said he was.Trinniberg wasn't cheap speed either.Turn either of them back to their wheelhouse and they are very good.It's not one or the other just because they get to a distance that is too far for them.Cheap speed will burn out no matter what distance the race is.

[Draynay]

Cheap speed.... aka .... Dublin Up

[cbiscuit]

Since predictions are what this thread started as how about this one: Social Inclusion wins KD with JJ Castellano on board.

What you're laughing? I see at least 2 more runners coming out of the 20 and figure at least 1 injury scratch upcoming. If he draws in he is a threat.

[cbiscuit]

mikemca.... my point is Wildcat Red is not cheap speed. Leave him off your tickets and let us know how you do .....

You may not see Red at the post on Sat., just a feeling I have

[harthebar]

you think he can do it....i agree , i think 1-2 will drop out,

[Slimpickens]

Since predictions are what this thread started as how about this one: Social Inclusion wins KD with JJ Castellano on board.

What you're laughing? I see at least 2 more runners coming out of the 20 and figure at least 1 injury scratch upcoming. If he draws in he is a threat.

I agree Id love to see Social Inclusion get in the derby. It's a shame the majority of the horses that are going to run dont have a prayer. We Miss Artie should not be running for sure among several others.

[chaka]

To bet on CC in the Derby The horse has been racing against Maidens and a few with 1 win in 4 horse fields..... CC has no business being a Derby favorite...... none....

nehro only had a maiden win going into derby in 2011 and was right in the mix

[Draynay]

Only has a Maiden win.... but if it comes up wet he better be on your ticket.

CC has been winning against no speed horses in small fields..... that makes him a Derby favorite ?

[BGboothA]

OK, I have to admit. I spent a few hours today looking deeper into my top 12 or so after making some tosses early in the process. And well, WildCat Red is standing out more and more the more homework I am doing. I am still not convinced that he wins the race, but I am not sure there is a safer bet to hit the board. The only thing that scares me is the possibility of Chitu or Uncle Sigh going all Palice Malice and killing anyone close to the lead which WildCat has been.

If he doens't give the rail to Constitution there in the last turn, he has a pretty impressive resume'.

[DMBcardinal]

Good thread, I enjoy the insights. Let's keep it going till Derby day!
I'm no expert by ANY means, but here goes:

Hoppertunity
Wicked Strong
Wildcat Red ( for us Louisville locals its a Kentucky vs. Louisville thing
Danza

Also agree on Chitu. The bovada futures are up and is going off at 33/1........

[harthebar]

Horse/Sire	Watchmaker Odds	Last Race, Result, and Beyer	Next Likely Race, Track, and Date	Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
California Chrome	3-1	Santa Anita Derby, 4/5	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Like how he puts himself in contending position, then strongly kicks on. Deserving favorite.
by Lucky Pulpit		1st by 5 1/4, 107	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: His SA Derby and San Felipe were, by far, the best pair of preps of anyone on this list.
Owner: Steven Coburn and Perry Martin; Trainer: Art Sherman; Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Wicked Strong	8-1	Wood Memorial, 4/5	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Sharp improvement from Florida trip - saved ground, swung out, mowed 'em down.
by Hard Spun		1st by 3 1/2, 104	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Liked how he strongly ran through the wire. He should get a great setup in Kentucky.
Owner: Centennial Farms; Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens; Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
Hoppertunity	10-1	Santa Anita Derby, 4/5	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Liked his SA Derby a lot. In an obvious prep, Smith never hit him down the stretch. Beware.
by Any Given Saturday		2nd by 5 1/4, 98	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: I liked his SA Derby, too, but let's be real. He's got a big gap to close on California Chrome.
Owner: Karl Watson, Mike Pegram, et al; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Mike Smith
Danza	12-1	Arkansas Derby, 4/12	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Prior form wasn't anything special. Won nicely, but now question quality of Ark. Derby field.
by Street Boss		1st by 4 3/4, 102	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Do you think his vast improvement at OP was legit? For me, he's got some proving to do.
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Joe Bravo
Candy Boy	15-1	Santa Anita Derby, 4/5	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Flattened out down stretch in SA Derby when distant third to horses I'd rank 1-2 right now.
by Candy Ride		3rd by 8 3/4, 92	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Beyers are stagnant, but was good early in the year. Can improve second start off layoff.
Owner: C R K Stable; Trainer; John Sadler; Jockey: Gary Stevens
Dance With Fate	15-1	Blue Grass, 4/12	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Done best running on turf, synthetic. Coming back quickly, but hard to pass on opportunity.
by Two Step Salsa		1st by 1 3/4, 97	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Connections stated he's best on turf, synthetic, and prefers more time between starts.
Owner: Sharon Alesia, Bran Jam Stable, Ciaglia Racing; Trainer: Peter Eurton; Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Intense Holiday	15-1	Louisiana Derby, 3/29	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Didn't have cleanest trip, wasn't going to catch loose leader. Should get more pace at CD.
by Harlan's Holiday		2nd by 3 1/2, 91	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: I wanted to see validation of his Risen Star win and did not see it in the La. Derby.
Owner: Starlight Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez
Samraat	15-1	Wood Memorial, 4/5	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Thoroughly admirable Wood performance, fighting between rivals, getting up for second.
by Noble Causeway		2nd by 3 1/2, 98	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Nothing new here, all of his races have been admirable. Ten furlongs remains a question.
Owner: My Meadowview Farm; Trainer: Rick Violette Jr.; Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Tapiture	15-1	Arkansas Derby, 4/12	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Was really high on him going into Ark. Derby, but baffled why he flattened out. Perplexed.
by Tapit		4th by 7 1/4, 90	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Me too. He doesn't like rating, but maybe the Rebel beat him up more than we thought.
Owner: Ron Winchell; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Vicar's in Trouble	15-1	Louisiana Derby, 3/29	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: La. Derby pace scenario changed when Rise Up broke poorly. He, Napravnik capitalized.
by Into Mischief		1st by 3 1/2, 97	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: A nice colt. But he can't hope that every other pace horse breaks poorly at Churchill.
Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Wildcat Red	15-1	Florida Derby, 3/29	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Admire how he battles it out every time. Can't see him getting 1 1/4 m, but he's tenacious.
by D'wildcat		2nd by a neck, 99	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: He got off setting an unexpectedly soft pace in the Fla. Derby. That won't happen at CD.
Owner: Honors Stable Corp.; Trainer: Jose Garoffalo; Jockey: Luis Saez
General a Rod	20-1	Florida Derby, 3/29	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Never really has run a bad race. He is probably just a tad inferior to the best at this point.
by Roman Ruler		3rd by 1 1/2, 97	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Fla. Derby was first attempt at 9 furlongs, and might have revealed distance limitations.
Owner: J. Armando Rodriguez; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Joel Rosario
Medal Count	20-1	Blue Grass, 4/12	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Two nice races on Polytrack on consecutive weekends. He's improving. An exotics bomber.
by Dynaformer		2nd by 1 3/4, 94	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Not certain he'll transfer his Kee form to CD. His true dirt capabilities remain unclear.
Owner: Spendthrift Farm; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Robbie Albarado Jr.
Ride On Curlin	20-1	Arkansas Derby, 4/12	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: No match for Ark. Derby winner, but certainly fought on bravely for second over Bayern.
by Curlin		2nd by 4 3/4, 94	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: I thought he was only picking up the pieces late. He needs to take a healthy step forward.
Owner: Daniel Dougherty; Trainer: William Gowan; Jockey: Calvin Borel
Chitu	30-1	Sunland Derby, 3/23	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4m	JP: Entered in Derby Trial, but will scratch and go straight to Derby. Think 10 furlongs beyond his range.
by Henny Hughes		1st by 2 1/4, 102	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: After considering Derby Trial, it will be the Derby instead, after all. He is still in tough.
Owner: Tanma Corporation; Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: Martin Garcia
Uncle Sigh	30-1	Wood Memorial, 4/5	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Raced wide in Wood but never really got into race. Seems like water getting deep for him.
by Indian Charlie		5th by 8, 91	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: His Wood was over when he got left, as he had no kind of trip after that. He can still run.
Owner: Wounded Warrior Stables and Anthony Robertson; Trainer: Gary Contessa; Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
We Miss Artie	30-1	Spiral, 3/22	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Far superior on synthetic to dirt, but when it comes to the Derby, Ramsey always "all in."
by Artie Schiller		1st by a nose, 85	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Has floundered on dirt. Synthetic preps shouldn't have the same points as dirt preps.
Owner: Ken and Sarah Ramsey; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Javier Castellano
Harry's Holiday	50-1	Blue Grass, 4/12	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Last two races couldn't be more different - good Spiral, awful Blue Grass. Won mdn at CD.
by Harlan's Holiday		13th by 28 1/4, 48	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Agree about his Blue Grass, but disagree on his Spiral. That race was run in slow motion.
Owner: Skychai Racing and Sand Dollar Stable; Trainer: Mike Maker; Jockey: Undecided
Ring Weekend	50-1	Calder Derby, 4/5	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Considering the quality of Calder Derby, he should have been more competitive at odds-on.
by Tapit		2nd by 9 3/4, 73	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: Certainly not the type of effort off which you'd like to go to the Derby, but he has points.
Owner: St. Elias Stable and West Point Thoroughbreds; Trainer: Graham Motion; Jockey: Alan Garcia
Vinceremos	50-1	Blue Grass, 4/12	Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m	JP: Willing to dismiss poor Blue Grass, first on synth, but was previously cut below best on dirt.
by Pioneerof the Nile		14th by 28 1/2, 48	Churchill Downs, 5/3	MW: No match for Ring Weekend two starts back in Tampa. A decided outsider against these.
Owner: WinStar Farm and Twin Creeks Racing; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Undecided

[BGboothA]

Starting to widdle down my list. Spent last night looking at more replays, some interesting things jumping out.

1. WildCat's run in the Florida was impressive, Constitutions was really impressive, but he is out and doesn't matter. But that was a quality effort from WildCat in that run.

2. Commanding Curve's final two furlongs in the Louisiana was very very impressive. This horse isn't talented enough to win, but watching him move through traffic with ease like that, he will be on the back end of my exotics.

3. Wicked Strong is officially a toss, his win in the Wood was less and less impressive the more you watch it. And the speed figures show it. As well as he gained ground late in the wood his LP Brisnet speed was a horrible 86. Add that to a huge jump last time out, and it has return to form written all over it.

[mikemca]

I think how people bet is going to come down to what source of information you use.

IMO Brisnet pps aren't worth the ink to print them and Beyer figures aren't much better but at least they are made by humans and drf formulator is the best tool for angles.CJ(Timeform) and J Brown(Thorograph) are far and away the best at what they do.

Wildcat Red is a toss for me.If he can get 1 1/4 at CD I lose.When it comes to GP I have anyone that made up ground on most of the days being more impressive than front end horses who rode the carousel.

Am also getting a little scared of Wicked Strong but not because of his last race.It was arguably the best prep because of a solid pace on a more testing AQ track .Also my opinion that the knocks on him are misguided like he won because of the fast pace.He was only 4 1/2 off it at the 1/4 and 4 off it at the 1/2 so he was keeping pace while gradually moving forward into the teeth of the fractions.Which makes him kicking away at the end more impressive.I think he has progressed all winter but it was dirtied up by 2 excuse filled runs at GP.So I don't see it as a race out of nowhere or a big jump in ability.He showed his potential in the Remson and didn't get another chance to show it until the Wood even though his 2nd effort at GP was hidden .What is scary is that apparently he is a little bit of a head case so I won't know what to do with him until post time.

[mikemca]

I think how people bet is going to come down to what source of information you use.

Should expand on this.

The vast majority of the time all sources have agreed who was fastest, what horses figured , and most of who to toss.This year every source is different.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I think how people bet is going to come down to what source of information you use.

IMO Brisnet pps aren't worth the ink to print them and Beyer figures aren't much better but at least they are made by humans and drf formulator is the best tool for angles.CJ(Timeform) and J Brown(Thorograph) are far and away the best at what they do.

Wildcat Red is a toss for me.If he can get 1 1/4 at CD I lose.When it comes to GP I have anyone that made up ground on most of the days being more impressive than front end horses who rode the carousel.

Am also getting a little scared of Wicked Strong but not because of his last race.It was arguably the best prep because of a solid pace on a more testing AQ track .Also my opinion that the knocks on him are misguided like he won because of the fast pace.He was only 4 1/2 off it at the 1/4 and 4 off it at the 1/2 so he was keeping pace while gradually moving forward into the teeth of the fractions.Which makes him kicking away at the end more impressive.I think he has progressed all winter but it was dirtied up by 2 excuse filled runs at GP.So I don't see it as a race out of nowhere or a big jump in ability.He showed his potential in the Remson and didn't get another chance to show it until the Wood even though his 2nd effort at GP was hidden .What is scary is that apparently he is a little bit of a head case so I won't know what to do with him until post time.

Have to agree. Thorograph is way too expensive for the average player, so Timeform at $3 a card and $6 Unlimited for a day offer the best value. Use Brisnet at times for a $1 card, but usually do not do as well as when using Timeform.

[JBEX]

CD

R4 #3 ty boo (12-1)..19 days and a similar drop when he ran 2nd last time he ran here. Also ran 2nd in one of his first 2 races as a 2yo here. try to beat the maker and romans suspicious and certain to be over bet drop downs

R5 #6 explosive (5-1)
R6 #8 derby kitten (5-1)
R7 #5 proud max (10-1)
R8 #8 teller terri (4-1)
R9 pass
R0 #4 fab autumn gal (8-1)

sorry.. wrong thread

[Easy-Rider 66]

CD

R4 #3 ty boo (12-1)..19 days and a similar drop when he ran 2nd last time he ran here. Also ran 2nd in one of his first 2 races as a 2yo here. try to beat the maker and romans suspicious and certain to be over bet drop downs

R5 #6 explosive (5-1)
R6 #8 derby kitten (5-1)
R7 #5 proud max (10-1)
R8 #8 teller terri (4-1)
R9 pass
R0 #4 fab autumn gal (8-1)

Wrong thread jbex. But thx for the picks. Will put your opinions into consideration today at Churchill.

[harthebar]

I got a couple question's for you guys,. Lets say just so we can have some sort of range, of the derby horses...i cant go back to the b.c. Races. To long ago , and to much has changed with these horses....so that leaves with a date , and im going to use jan 1 2014 all races since then msw, allowlance , stakes and graded derby preps. All of them,
questions
1. Out of all the horses in the derby what 1 horse had the toughest combined competion, with in all his races...was it cc was it tapiture, who did they race , figure it out.....i mean we know its not danza, because he was lightly raced, and i'm not taking nothing away from him.....
2. What horse had at least 3 races since the jan 1 2014
3. How many horses that ran. In these races , now this is important, that was never passed at any point during a race, now i dont mean a dueling two horses, i mean a horse that was never completely passed in the back stretch turning for home, and not the last few feet at the finish line........he just kept moving forward...
4. How many horses went right to lead or stayed very close,,the entire race
5. How many horses, closed from the backstretch that were at least 8-10 lengths behind , and passed more that 6 horses.


Remember, this isnt a test,quiz.....i just want to know , what you think, there is no right or wrong answer
name the horse, also in a few of the races he was bet down, pretty good,

[JBEX]

Wrong thread jbex. But thx for the picks. Will put your opinions into consideration today at Churchill.

sorry guys.. meant for htb's thread

[harthebar]

Thanks for the post, are you still needing harness pps

cd

r4 #3 ty boo (12-1)..19 days and a similar drop when he ran 2nd last time he ran here. Also ran 2nd in one of his first 2 races as a 2yo here. Try to beat the maker and romans suspicious and certain to be over bet drop downs

r5 #6 explosive (5-1)
r6 #8 derby kitten (5-1)
r7 #5 proud max (10-1)
r8 #8 teller terri (4-1)
r9 pass
r0 #4 fab autumn gal (8-1)

[JBEX]

Thanks for the post, are you still needing harness pps

No problem.. Yes like to have a look at them if you don't mind doing it