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As for the Donn, it is a race with virtually no speed in it.
Nobody wants the lead.
Would maybe lean towards River Seven . If he breaks sharp, he can get the lead and really walk the dog on the front end. The short run to the 1st turn should favor an inside type horse to get the lead and a bunch of them just have no early speed at all.
It would be great to see Joe Jr. win . I won a few races with him when he had the 10 lb. and 7 lb. bug, just before I left. Real nice kid and rode his dad a ton.
4 Neck n Neck (20-1)
Obviously 2-WTC has the best resume but will certainly be an underlay in here.. 4-NnN may have used the last 2 even runs to get himself fit for today. Off 11 months from 11/12 - 10/13 he ran a decent race in the slop finishing 2nd @ Ind in a listed stake. Was a decent horse as a 3yo in 2012 and feel if he's back to that besides 2-WTC not a bad fit in here at big odds
WTC and Rev taking over half of the win pool $$. Neck n Neck currently 35/1 10 minutes out.Originally Posted by JBEX
I thought that WTC would come up short today, and bet him to come second in my exactas. I had Revolutionary, River Seven and Romansh on top with WTC, I had to dismiss the 8-Lea. LOL, as it turns out Lea set a new track record in beating WTC. Well done Bill Mott.
On to today's Race of the Day: GP Donn Handicap race 12
who do we take?? 2- Will Take Charge? 3- Revolutionary? 5- River Seven? 6- Romansh? 8- Lea? With the exception of Will Take Charge who is 9-5 ML, the others are about 4 to 10-1 ML. Can we take WTC @ a short price?? After all, he almost won the Breeders Cup and he beat Game On Dude. I really don't know. Think need to watch the tote. 3-Revolutionary I don't know what to think of him. He won his first race after the layoff @ 1 mile earning 93 Beyer. Pletcher/Castellano combo must respect, but I don't really know what to make of that race. There were only 5 horses and the company was pretty weak. Although the place horse came back and win yesterday, but he was at somewhere around 15-1 and the place horse of that race is huge odds 138-1. So...... I'm gonna take a stab at this race cause don't really like anything. I'm gonna go with the 6- Romansh @ 6-1 @ ML. From the Godophin group that cost them $750k as a yearling, I don't think we have seen the best of him yet. That 110 Beyer from last race just jumps off the page. He ran 1:48 last race going today's distance at Aquaduct. I think that should some merit to that unless he just freaked that day. I know the company was weak, but still 110 Beyer?! Prolly gonna use him with WTC and Revolutionary in some kind of superfecta wager with 4-Neck n Neck and 9- Bourbon Courage in the bottom.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome!!
Oh well, till next time. GL everyone.
Lots of similarities Lea and Cigar..
Mott
decent turf horses who exploded on dirt
Lea Jan 5yo.. Cigar Sep 4yo
(should be noted Lea had 2 decent races on the slop)
2nd race on fast track G1 win Lea (Donn) Cigar (NYRA Mile)
Big time owner breeders paulson /claiborne farms
Big time dam sires.. Lea (Gallileo) Cigar (Seattle Slew)
Small time sires.. Lea (frst samurai) Cigar (Palace Music)
Tough to match up with Cigar but have a hunch Lea's got
some good races ahead.. we'll see
Interesting comparison, JBEX. Lea set a new track record today, so may be it is a hint of his future on dirt. Can't wait to find out!
Could see him being sent to Dubai for the big race . He sentInteresting comparison, JBEX. Lea set a new track record today, so may be it is a hint of his future on dirt. Can't wait to find out!
Royal Delta there (twice I believe) which I couldn't understand
myself other than the loot.. Always figure horses who turf and
dirt well will like the poly.. 7 weeks away which I would think is
great timing
DRF Race of the Day: Race 5 @ Santa Anita 6 1/2f Downhill Turf Claiming
This is a tough race to call in my opinion. DRF hosts liked 7-Midnight Lady and 1-Awe' Some Kitten. I think that there are enough front runners to ensure a good pace in this race. So do we look for deep closers?? Looking at the form, Thomas Proctor 's horse sure looks good last time. But the last two races on this horse, Van Dyke (the apprentice) was on board, and got a huge weight break. Now, Talamo is riding, I am not sure this horse is good enough to beat this group. Although the trainer is HOT, I am gonna try to beat him. In addition to the 7 and 1, I think I am gonna add Nakatani's horse to the mix. The 10-Sleep Tight veteren is 2nd off layoff, and last time she ran against the 6 and did ok. Gonna take another shot at it with a better jockey. ML is at 8-1, so I think it's worth a shot.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome. GL all.
not to tuff, lost alot by a nose though
Ticket #: 2402617
RAC Racing ticket #172728
Feb-13 SAX R5 1.00 SBR TRI 2,5,9/2,5,6,7,9/2,5,6,7,936.00 / 0.00 757.20 WIN 02/13/2014 12:57:37 PM Ticket #: 2402621
RAC Racing ticket #172730
Feb-13 SAX R5 2.00 SBR TRI 5/2,6,7,9/2,6,7,924.00 / 0.00 -24.00 LOSE 02/13/2014 01:00:55 PM Ticket #: 2402622
RAC Racing ticket #172731
Feb-13 SAX R5 5.00 SBR TRI 5,9/2/5,6,7,930.00 / 0.00 -30.00 LOSE 02/13/2014 01:04:34 PM
nice hit!!
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/F...ormance-race/8
liking
3 - fastest and off win
4 - 4 of last 5 in money with only out being grade 2 race
5 - class of race @ 15K per start
7 - off since may and came back heavily backed, now jockey change and 5 pounds lighter
keying with the 7 liking the 4 alot
Nice!! What do you think of the 2??
http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/F...ormance-race/8
when looking at these horses keep in mine that they are looking to advance to Kentucky Derby
I can't see this happening with the 2,3,6,7, or 8. (8 could hit tri)
5 appears to be horse to beat with 1 or 4 having a shot. 4 has won 55K per start and the 1 has 104 speed figure
besides using bold speed numbers at beginning of each race add up the two together shown under the horses weight
the 5 here has totals of 103, 100, 102, 97 with highest bold being at 85 his last race always improving
the 4 shows 106 best and 88/93 appearing to be faster besides never out being 8/8 in money
the 1 ships here with strong numbers and was made favorite as always
the 5 has Stevens back aboard
I give the edge to the 1 with the added distance being a plus. Keying the 5 for second and third with 4 & 8.
made these bets earlier needing more added now but will wait for tote board as I am a big one on odds as money talks. I always write down opening line, 5 minute line and then watch closing lines. I also always circle the H (heavy) meaning horse with money that's not suppost to be there.
Ticket#:2404039
Feb 15 09:50 AMFeb 15 09:50:43 AM RAC Racing ticket #172908
Feb-15 GOL R8 2.00 SBR TRI 1/4,5,8/4,5,812.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2404040
Feb 15 09:51 AMFeb 15 09:51:26 AM RAC Racing ticket #172909
Feb-15 GOL R8 1.00 SBR SPR 1/4,5,8/4,5,8/4,5,86.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2404041
Feb 15 09:52 AMFeb 15 09:52:47 AM RAC Racing ticket #172910
Feb-15 GOL R8 2.00 SBR TRI 4/1,5,8/1,5,812.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2404042
Feb 15 09:53 AMFeb 15 09:53:14 AM RAC Racing ticket #172911
Feb-15 GOL R8 10.00 SBR TRI 4/5,8/5,820.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2404044
Feb 15 09:53 AMFeb 15 09:53:46 AM RAC Racing ticket #172913
Feb-15 GOL R8 1.00 SBR TRI 1,5,8/4/1,5,86.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2404045
Feb 15 09:54 AMFeb 15 09:54:34 AM RAC Racing ticket #172914
Feb-15 GOL R8 5.00 SBR TRX 4,5,830.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2404052
Feb 15 10:00 AMFeb 15 10:00:26 AM RAC Racing ticket #172915
Feb-15 GOL R8 1.00 SBR SPR 4,8/4,5,8/1,3,4,5,8/1,3,4,5,824.00 / 0.00
Thanks so much for your inputs. Very valuable info and tks for sharing.
In regards to today's DRF Race of the Day, on paper like you said it sure looks like the 5- Enterprising is the one to beat. Proctor/Stevens combo has been deadly. I like your picks No1. The question that I gave is on the 6- Icy Ride. He is trained by Baffert and part own by him as well. He has not even broken maiden. Why did he ship to enter this race. Granted this race doesn't really have power house horses here, so I am gonna take a shot with him. I'm gonna add Exacta box 5-6 and tri 5,6/4,5,6/1,4,5,6.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.
fell asleep way before race so sorry that I didn't get back at you. When writing I should of stuck to what I seen when making bets but the 1 hounded me all day. Odds would of been very important to me on him at race time to verify.
What horse came in 4th costing me the superfecta?
Ticket #: 2404041
RAC Racing ticket #172910
Feb-15 GOL R8 2.00 SBR TRI 4/1,5,8/1,5,812.00 / 0.00 42.60 WIN 02/15/2014 09:52:47 AM Ticket #: 2404042
RAC Racing ticket #172911
Feb-15 GOL R8 10.00 SBR TRI 4/5,8/5,820.00 / 0.00 253.00 WIN 02/15/2014 09:53:14 AM Ticket #: 2404044
RAC Racing ticket #172913
Feb-15 GOL R8 1.00 SBR TRI 1,5,8/4/1,5,86.00 / 0.00 -6.00 LOSE 02/15/2014 09:53:46 AM Ticket #: 2404045
RAC Racing ticket #172914
Feb-15 GOL R8 5.00 SBR TRX 4,5,830.00 / 0.00 106.50 WIN 02/15/2014 09:54:34 AM Ticket #: 2404052
RAC Racing ticket #172915
Feb-15 GOL R8 1.00 SBR SPR 4,8/4,5,8/1,3,4,5,8/1,3,4,5,824.00 / 0.00 -24.00 LOSE 02/15/2014 10:00:26 AM
horse needs to fit the race and this maiden didn't along with having crappy form and no speed showing improvement last out from outside. As stated I was looking for facts and figures that might be found derby day and this horse was way out. In the one's first 4 races his biggest lost was 1/2 length besides having high speed ratings (I thought), form and number seenable derby day as well as the four's money of 500K. Besides the five's form & record there was nothing found that might apply derby day.
Thanks so much for your inputs. Very valuable info and tks for sharing.
In regards to today's DRF Race of the Day, on paper like you said it sure looks like the 5- Enterprising is the one to beat. Proctor/Stevens combo has been deadly. I like your picks No1. The question that I gave is on the 6- Icy Ride. He is trained by Baffert and part own by him as well. He has not even broken maiden. Why did he ship to enter this race. Granted this race doesn't really have power house horses here, so I am gonna take a shot with him. I'm gonna add Exacta box 5-6 and tri 5,6/4,5,6/1,4,5,6.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.
Finish//Horse//Odds
1st-4-Tamarando 2.30/1
2nd-8-Dance With Fate 3.60/1
3rd-5-Enterprising 1.30/1
4th-2-Puppy Manners 18.80/1
5th-3-Infosec 17.30/1
6th-6-Icy Ride 26.30/1
7th-1-Craftsman 12.20/1
8th-7-I'll Wrap It Up 30.70/1
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Thanks! do these links work? http://www1.drf.com/formulator-web/F...ormance-race/5
What I'm looking at, Distance and purse which is 7 fur 200K, crucial facts in all races
turning to past performances I see speed ratings prior and after race results and give all horses their numbers using the bold and by adding the later two together. I am also concentrating on lifetimes figures to determine money won per start.
1 - 20k per start, 104 with front and early speed, perfect horse alot faster then last race
2 - 10K 102 speed
3- 10k 101 bad quitter
4- 30K 107 no minus horse
5 - 15K 90 & 103 speeds last race extremely good
6 - 26K 101 speed, classy horse but I don't like facing so much (front) speed here
Ticket#:2405709
Feb 16 11:38 AMFeb 16 11:38:55 AM RAC Racing ticket #173037
Feb-16 SAX R5 10.00 SBR TRI 4/1,5/1,520.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2405711
Feb 16 11:39 AMFeb 16 11:39:37 AM RAC Racing ticket #173038
Feb-16 SAX R5 5.00 SBR TRI 4/1/55.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2405712
Feb 16 11:40 AMFeb 16 11:40:01 AM RAC Racing ticket #173039
Feb-16 SAX R5 2.00 SBR TRI 5/1,4/1,44.00 / 0.00
Don't think the race of the day is going to pay much today either so I'm passing.Being by Flatter dirt should be Kobe's Back's best surface.Even if he loses 5 of the 6 horses are 9-2 or less with the other 6-1.
They need to pick better races
with the favorite out it will pay very good besides being very cheap to get into. Some here are wanting to learn and this appeared to be an easy race. I love the 4 to win on top of the 1-5 for the tri and nothing else needs to be bet here. Speed numbers shown by number six here will never find their way into the Kentucky Derby as same rule does apply as yesterday.
Bet 4 on top of 1-5 for trifecta and nothing else and be a winner.
couple points needing to be made, first mike is consider one of the best here at SBR and maybe the best. Second stating that I love the 4 doesn't take anything away from the 1 nor 5. I separated by speed but speed of the 1 is unknown having never been pushed. I see the 5 running first with the 1 running second but could be reversed. The 4 will run them down with 6 being well back. I put more on 4/1-5 and backed it up boxing 1-4-5. The 3 can't get the lead here and will be done early.
mainly for newbys, watching odds is important, 12-1 on the 1 horse kills him badly
Kobe's Back won impressively.I'm guessing they'll try stretching him out again but this time on dirt.
Didn't get a chance to play the Race of the Day yesterday. Saw the replay, and Kobe's Back does look impressive, going home with a hand ride. Read that Rosario will be riding Strong Mandate today at Oaklawn Park and may need to make a decision as to which one to ride if Kobe's Back and Strong Mandate both end up in the Rebel Stakes. So that take us to DRF Race of the Day: Race 9 @ Oaklawn Park 1 1/16 Southwest G3 on dirt.
Rosario is on the 7-Strong Mandate. I am gonna go against him mainly because I don't think he will be fully cranked to win this one base on Lukas record of off layoffs. These young 3 yr olds are so difficult to cap simply because we haven't seen much of them yet and they are still learning. This group of potential Derby runners are very similar in running style, most like to be forwardly race. The chances are there will be a strong pace for this race. So I am gonna with a horse that I think will get the best trip running behind the front runners and hopefully clear out of trouble and get a run at them. The one that fits to me is the 8-Ride On Curlin @ ML 6-1. Borel and Solis have shown that this horse can come from behind. And he is the horse here that has put up two 90's beyer figure. This $25K yearling may not be good enough for the Derby, but today I think he has a good chance. His father is Curlin (who is out of Smart Strike- whom I love) and mother is Magical Ride (out of Storm Cat); so I don't think the distance will be an issue. Gonna key him with 7, 2, 5 and may be 1 and 2 also. Will be watch the tote for more clues.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.
The 8-Ride On Curlin came in third. With the 2-Tapiture winning and 7-Kobe's Back second. Trifecta paid $85 for $1 wager, not too bad, I guess.Didn't get a chance to play the Race of the Day yesterday. Saw the replay, and Kobe's Back does look impressive, going home with a hand ride. Read that Rosario will be riding Strong Mandate today at Oaklawn Park and may need to make a decision as to which one to ride if Kobe's Back and Strong Mandate both end up in the Rebel Stakes. So that take us to DRF Race of the Day: Race 9 @ Oaklawn Park 1 1/16 Southwest G3 on dirt.
Rosario is on the 7-Strong Mandate. I am gonna go against him mainly because I don't think he will be fully cranked to win this one base on Lukas record of off layoffs. These young 3 yr olds are so difficult to cap simply because we haven't seen much of them yet and they are still learning. This group of potential Derby runners are very similar in running style, most like to be forwardly race. The chances are there will be a strong pace for this race. So I am gonna with a horse that I think will get the best trip running behind the front runners and hopefully clear out of trouble and get a run at them. The one that fits to me is the 8-Ride On Curlin @ ML 6-1. Borel and Solis have shown that this horse can come from behind. And he is the horse here that has put up two 90's beyer figure. This $25K yearling may not be good enough for the Derby, but today I think he has a good chance. His father is Curlin (who is out of Smart Strike- whom I love) and mother is Magical Ride (out of Storm Cat); so I don't think the distance will be an issue. Gonna key him with 7, 2, 5 and may be 1 and 2 also. Will be watch the tote for more clues.
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.
DRF Race of the Day for Saturday is the Fountain of Youth, 1 1/16 Dirt (Race 11-GP).
The obvious picks are 1-Commissioner and 12- Top Billing and they look pretty tough to beat. So I am gonna add two picks that I think has a chance to complete the exotics. The pace of this race looks like will be pretty swift and the 12- Top Billing will most likely gonna hug the rail and save ground. I believe the key for this race will be who can avoid trouble and have the best trip. There are too many horses in the front and some will lose ground and some will hit traffic and some will be tired. Therefore, due to this pace scenario, I am gonna add the 7-C. Zee and 5-General a Rod. My mental picture of this race is that these two and Commissioner will be there turning for home with Top Billing charging on the outside. Will be get there on time??
As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.
I agree the obvious ones are the 1 and 12
5-general arod.. think this is a very talented horse who will do
some nice things down the road. Working well and have a feeling
he's versatile enough to sit or go depending on the situation. Has
route bloodlines and don't think two turns will be a problem.Top pilot
and trainer having a great meet
9-best plan yet (20-1)..Like at a price. Excellent 2yo campaign including
2 route wins with decent beyers especially for that time of the year. 1st
off the 7 week layoff was a dud but like the even run in the Holy Bull last
out. Says dam won twice routing and banked over 300k and dropped
several routers that won over 500k (not sure if they mean cumulatively
or individualy)
Thanks for your input, JBEX. In regards to talented horse and nice things down the road, I am very interested to how the 1_Commissioner is gonna do today. I love the blood line of this horse especially for the Triple Crown. He is by A.P. Indy (out of Seattle Slew) and Flaming Heart (out of Touch Gold). To me, he prefers more distance (such as the Derby and the Belmont). I think that today's distance may be a short for him, but Flaming Heart has won at 1 1/16. So, he may have enough tactical speed to get the W. But I am just very intrigued by his bloodline.
Good insight & selections from the two previous posters & I agree with their assessment but I would not discount & would add wildcat red
Thanks for checking in Hawkwind.
I must admit I don't distinguish distances within a halfThanks for your input, JBEX. In regards to talented horse and nice things down the road, I am very interested to how the 1_Commissioner is gonna do today. I th love the blood line of this horse especially for the Triple Crown. He is by A.P. Indy (out of Seattle Slew) and Flaming Heart (out of Touch Gold). To me, he prefers more distance (such as the Derby and the Belmont). I think that today's distance may be a short for him, but Flaming Heart has won at 1 1/16. So, he may have enough tactical speed to get the W. But I am just very intrigued by his bloodline.
furlong of each other. I do think however Pletcher is probably
more interested in what happens down the road rather than
whether he wins this race
Well, 4 out of the first 6 races were won by Castellano. Does anyone else know how to win?
appears he went with the better horse, I love the 4 but the five won last time so why not again. Finally a decent post for the five also, this horse might explode today. Appears that he will be out front as he was last time from the outside. Glad that I took a second look at this move. 1 and 12 both have a ton of speed and may be faster. all over these four for the superfecta using nobody else.
Thanks for checking in Hawkwind.
ends up looking like this
Ticket#:2412190
Feb 22 04:03 PMFeb 22 04:03:56 PM RAC Racing ticket #173605
Feb-22 GUL R11 10.00 SBR TRI 5/1,4,12/1,4,1260.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2412193
Feb 22 04:04 PMFeb 22 04:04:31 PM RAC Racing ticket #173606
Feb-22 GUL R11 2.00 SBR TRI 12/1,4,5/1,4,512.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2412194
Feb 22 04:04 PMFeb 22 04:04:57 PM RAC Racing ticket #173607
Feb-22 GUL R11 5.00 SBR TRI 4/1,5,12/1,5,1230.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2412206
Feb 22 04:21 PMFeb 22 04:21:05 PM RAC Racing ticket #173609
Feb-22 GUL R11 3.00 SBR SPR 4/5,12/1,5,12/1,5,1212.00 / 0.00 Ticket#:2412214
Feb 22 04:25 PMFeb 22 04:25:36 PM RAC Racing ticket #173614
Feb-22 GUL R11 5.00 SBR SPR 5/4,12/1,4,12/1,4,1220.00 / 0.00
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no1here gave mikemca 25 Betpoint(s) for this post.