Originally Posted by
mikemca
I think the best advice I can give is that horses are not static.Most people will look at the form and say XXX horse ran an 85 last race and assume he/she is going to run an 85 again this race.It doesn't work like that.Sure sometimes they will run the same but the vast majority of the time they are going to either improve or decline.
That is where the skill comes in and you can gain an advantage over the people you are playing against in the mutual pools.There are way too many processes to go about projecting a horses effort this race but one way is to thoroughly examine how the horse earned the figure he/she received last race(s). Did he coast on an uncontested lead, was the track carrying speed(did all front runners win that day).My favorite is he closed from the back of the pack into a very slow pace on a speed favoring track and vice versa set a fast pace the other horses on the pace collapsed and he still finished well top 3/4 while other speeds finished last all on a closer friendly track.
That is why I have to disagree with the people saying Brisnet is better than DRF.I think DRF formulator blows Brisnet away but imo TimeformUS>DRF>>>>>>>Brisnet,Trackmaster ,Equibase.