Pressed the pace while 3 wide last race on a day in which the rail was strong. Today faces a weak field and should go wire to wire.
Race 6- #2 She's A Sizzler
Another victim of the gold rail on January 10th. Was wide throughout and still put in a valiant effort to finish 3rd. The horse whom was 2nd in that race Lemme Rock draws post 8 today, she rode the gold rail that day and only outfinished She's A Sizzler by about 2 lengths.
Other players here include a 1st time started #5 Crazy Over Easy. As well as #3 Very Precious who comes out of the same race as She's A Sizzler, had trouble at the start this day and will be better here today.
Will use those two in the exotics with She's A Sizzler
Race 7 is IMO the best betting race of the day. Im going to take a shot with #7 Erin Enchanted whom had a terrible trip last race. Was absurdly wide in the early stages and was shuffled back to last. Then when the rider gets a full head of steam built up she gets shut off at the top of the stretch in the midst of her rally. I think she is better than her form suggests and is a legit player here.
#3 Jerusalem Stone coming off a 6 month layoff could be get on the ticket as a deep closer with alot of speed signed on. Should be the longest price on the board.
Race 9- #7 Shanks for Nothing
This horse really had an eventful trip in his last race. Broke well got to the rail was sitting 2nd and it was all down hill from there. I have watched the replay about 15 times and honestly I have no idea if it was the riders fault or something just went amiss but he got in a tight spot and went from sitting 2nd to being next to last entering the far turn, was completely steadied out of the race. Probably lost about 15 lengths in the deal and was absolutely eliminated from contention this day. It really is worth a look. He was the #5 horse. In the same race are 2 other entrants that were in this race as well and figure to be amonst the favorites. Eltanin was the #4 and Holyicious was the #8. They both had clean trips.
Should run over these horses in the stretch based on the major class drop.
Race 6- #3 Read the Mirage
2 routes stretching out angle here. Watching this horses last repay really felt like he would appreciate the added distance. Hopefully he is forwardly placed early. Not a fan of the horses that have already routed. Very wide open race.
Very wide open maiden 35 claimer here. I dont really get the 10-1 ML as his 1st 3 races which were run on dirt are fast enough to put him right on the wire with some of the shorter priced runners. Granted those races were over a year ago. He now comes in 2nd off of a layoff and his last race beyer fig on the turf was close to what he was running on the dirt so I see no reason not to expect an upper 60 minimum beyer here and that very well could win this based on the competition.
Not sure why the #8 Gray Day Lover is favored on the ML as he was 5th in a maiden claimer at Turfway Park at 38-1 1st time out.
I think the main competition will come from the 1 and 4.
Win on 9
Exacta's 9 over and under the 1 and 4. If the 2 is live on the board off the layoff I will use him too.
Race 6- #10 Coexist
Really getting mixed signals on this horse. Hasnt ran competitevly since the fall of 2012 at Belmont. This horse has never faced a field this weak. I like him on the class drop alone. If he could get back to any of his races in 2012 he could run laps around these horses.
But mixed signals as the horse just worked a bullet drill over the turf, yet the connections put some no name rider on his back. No name atleast to me. Bullet work could be that they want this horse to be claimed. I am very well aware that this horse may just not be able to run anymore but have to try him as this appears to be a Now or Never type scenario.
Also like the #5 Dreamalot. His maiden win 2 back makes him a major contender and was caught very wide last race and he to is taking a serious drop in class.
The ML favorite Defiant was terrible last time as the favorite but is a major contender just because of the weakness of the field, and the cutback in distance should help too.
Win on 10
Exacta box 5,10
Exacta 5,10 with 1
Smaller exacta 5,10 with 7
Race 7- #7 Magnificent Moon
I guess the theme of today has turned out to be long layoff horses returning. This guy hasnt ran since the summer of 2012. If the connections have him ready to run today he should win. He has never faced a field this weak. But the layoff is a massive concern but the ones that are in form leave little to be desired. Appears to be working regurally and you have gotta think they kept this 6 year old maiden around for a reason.
Race 4- Standup paddle was caught 3 wide in the early stages, stalked the 2 phony favorites in the early going. When asked went by those 2 and opened up a small lead in the stretch but was no match for the #2 Elusive Success who opened up at 1/9 off of a year and a half layoff, sat the best trip and won at 9-1 sparking a decent exacta payoff.
2-9 Exacta paid $74
Race 6- Very frustrating results here as the best horse didnt win. Both of my horses had trouble in the race, more so the #5 who made a late close to get 2nd. Coexist had to steady in the early stages but was still the leader mid stretch and he really had nothing to offer in the late stages fading to 3rd. This now or never was a never.
Race 7- Magnifecent Moon opened up at 6/5 off of the 18 month layoff, drfited up to 4-1 and proceeded to never lift a hoof. Dont think he beat a horse home.
Comes out of the same race as the ML favorite Village Warrior which took place on Jan 9th, a day in which the rail was very strong. Village Warrior broke from post 7 of 9 and rider Rajiv Maragh really did a good job of getting him right to the rail. He saved ground until the top of the stretch where he was then produced on the outside and clunked up past Bridgeville whom finished 3rd. Bridgeville was caught 3 wide chasing the entire trip and was only 1 length behind Village Warrior at the finish. IMO Bridgeville ran significantly better of the 2.
So Im gonna toss Village Warrior in the pick 5. Just dont need this horse at a short price. If he beats me he beats me, Ive just seen enough of him. I will also use the Chad Brown trained 2nd time starter #1 Chrishi as well as #2Permanent Campaign who should be the early pace setter.
Win on 4 Using 1,2,4 in the pick 5
The 2nd race on paper is a virtual match race betweent the #1 Ivanovna and the #2 My Lucky Lieu. Of the 2 I prefer Ivanovna who has been facing better but she will have to overcome a low percentage rider. On the pick 5 I will also use longshot #5 Wildichi. She is about 10 beyer points away from the 2 favorites but I thought she ran well last race finishing 4th in a sprint at 84-1. Stretching out im hoping the rider sends hard and gets the lead and against a field of this quality why not?
Use 1,2,5 in pick 5
3rd Race- Completely wide open field of 6 IMO. I wanted to take the #1 Reggie D as the best horse but he is a dead closer in a race where there likely wont be much of a pace. The #5 Ten Items or Less was wide against the gold rail on Jan 9th and puts the blinkers on. He will probably be the speed.
Using ALL in the pick 5
4th Race- Will single the #1 Handy Stan who just cant lose on paper.
Use 1 in Pick 5
5th race- #4 Vinda
Lots to like about Vinda today.
1st off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Which is 27% over the past 5 years
When he has a horse 1st off the claim and they are coming off of a 31-60 day layoff the stat jumps to a 34% win angle with a $2.99 Roi.
This horse has back races to go to that would make him the clear 2nd best horse in this race.
Lots of speed signed on here so she should get a nice setup
Finally gets Pablo Fragoso off of her back and a real rider Cornelio Velasquez
#1 Heir to Dare is the horse to beat. She has speed but I dont think she is quite as fast as the #3 Insolvent whom just lost at 2/5 in her last start. Or the #5 The Royal Boot who is a dead send speed as well. Not sure what kind of trip Heir to Dare will work out with the rail draw so that is a bit of a concern but I cant see the 3 or 5 finishing infront of the 1 so I will use the 1 in the pick 5.
This is a double gold rail bias play back. Was wide against the bias on Jan 10th as well as Jan 25th. Finally gets a rider change to Chris Decarlo who has done well with limited mounts. Im hoping with the rail draw he can get the horse to break well and just go to the lead and wire the field as the best horse. If she doesnt get the lead she could sit and make one run. Based on the competition this has to be considered a Now or Never situation for Prize Taker.
I dont see why the #3 Ascended Fever is even a serious contender let alone the ML favorite. She is clearly a better turf horse and has never had any success routing on turf or dirt. She can beat me.
The 2nd choice on the ML #5 Alwaysinmycircle is a speed horse but whenever she has been looked in the eye she has blinked in the late stages. Also negative trainer switch.
IMO the 2nd likliest winner is #6 A Pretty Dixie whom comes out of the same race as Prize Taker and she was even more against the track chasing wide the whole way.
Win on 1 Exacta Box 1,6
Race 4- #1 Go West Marie
I thought she was very impressive while breaking her maiden last out. I think of the 5 horses in this field she has the most upside of the bunch. No doubt the #5 Gracer will be extremly tough ro beat, I think the only one with a chance is the #1. These 2 actually faced each other at Saratoga in a maiden special that Gracer won. In the race Go West Marie was moving sweetly the whole race when the jock began to angle her out into the stretch the horse drifted way wide essentially taking her out of the race. I dont think she is that far behind Gracer in ability and would only have to take a small step forward to beat her.
Win on 1
Race 6- #7 Joe Alan
I really want to take a shot against the 8/5 ML favorite Chief Scout whom I think is vulnerable here but unfortunately there are few options to go to. I have taken Joe Alan in hopes that he can wire the field. Ran on Jan 13th a day in which the rail was dead and Joe Alan was right on the rail the entire race. He is taking a serious class drop today. Last race he was facing horses that consistently run beyers in the upper 60's to low 70's. I like the cutback to 5.5 furlongs and bug rider going up. Just send to the lead and see how far he can takem. Wont ever find an easier spot than this.
#8 Indigene Charm
Gonna take a shot with this longshot as well. Another horse that was way wide against the rail bias on Jan 10th as well as Jan 26th. In the race 2 back Indigene made a ridiculous middle move going from the back of the pack all the way up to the lead before tiring. Last race just had no chance as he was about 6 wide the entire trip on the goldest of gold rails. Gets Laura Carson off of his back whom I think has chosen the wrong proffesion as a jockey. Not the biggest fan of Abel Lezcano but he is capable. I think he fits against this competition and will be a big price.
Win on 7 WPS on 8
Race 7- #2 William'sluckygray
2nd time starter going a route of ground for the 1st time. 1st race was pretty much an even run at 6 panels while caught wide the majority of the trip. Looked like a horse that would appreciate more distance and is bred to do so. Hoping he plays out to be the inside speed in this wide open race.
Win on 2 Exacta all with 2
Race 9- #3 Hannibal Lector
Very interesting 5.5 sprint here. I like hannibal Lector as I did last time when the other speed missed the break and he ended up going to the lead in a contested pace. Ok, that didnt work so this race he will have to sit a trip in behind horses and with this race being 5.5 furlongs his middle move should be longer and more sustained than usual.
There are some lightning fast horses in here. The returning #4 Retrieve is a dead send speed as well as #7N.F's Destiny. The 2,6 and 8 are also front running types. Just think Hannibal gets the setup and passes them in the lane.
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