[Reload]

“Life Is Sweet to sugar-coat an upset over Zenyatta in Lady’s Secret at Oak Tree”

by "Reload" Joe Freda

Saturday will have lots of rich racing action around the country and a total of five races will be televised live on ESPN Classic from Keeneland and Oak Tree. The day’s main event is the Lady’s Secret and 2-5 morning line favorite Zenyatta (#5) tops a field of eight going 1 1/16 miles for $300,000.

When it comes to how dominant Zenyatta has been in the racing world, there will be no hush-hushing in the Lady’s Secret today. This filly has done it all going 12 for 12 lifetime, including many races on the synthetic surface featured at west coast tracks like Oak Tree. The most recent victory came at Del Mar in August when running in the Clement Hirsch Stakes just narrowly defeating Anabaa’s Creation (#8) by a head who will be in today’s rematch.

With such low odds, it is hard to back taking Zenyatta at the betting windows and with how close her last win was it is best to look elsewhere for some value. Some may look to Anabaa’s Creation right away at a juicy 12-1 morning line but I feel a repeat of the solid performance in August is unlikely to happen. Going off at 22-1 against Zenyatta that day and now only being 12-1 or less come post time makes me feel the value has dropped too much.

Some other horses I am avoiding in the Lady’s Secret are Cocoa Beach (#1), Sweet and Flawless (#2), and Briecat (#7). Although Cocoa Beach was runner up to Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Lady’s Classic a year ago, she has been doing worse against lesser competition this year. Sweet and Flawless has a decent record, but most outings have been on dirt and no victories have happened on the synthetic surface anywhere. Briecat finished second to Zenyatta back in June at Hollywood Park, but has been inconsistent and will also be carrying nine pounds more than that day.

Out of the four horses left to choose from, Life Is Sweet (#4) is the lowest priced contender at 5-1 and would be my selection to win based on overall value. She comes into this one off a fourth place finish in the Clement Hirsch ending up behind Zenyatta and other foes in today’s matchup. Had she finished higher in the order that race, you would not be seeing 5-1 or more today and this will be the highest price she has paid all year. Life Is Sweet scored three straight wins on Santa Anita’s synthetic surface this past winter, including a career-high speed figure of 117 back in March. Look for her to stay toward the front of the pack and get a sharp close past Zenyatta in the stretch.

Should Life Is Sweet not collect, two longshots worth putting a few bucks each on are Made for Magic (#3),and Lethal Heat (#6). Made for Magic is taking a huge step up in class and is 30-1 in the morning line because of it but went nearly wire to wire at Del Mar in a one mile effort just six weeks ago. Lethal Heat has some good value in not having won yet this year and a solid performance last week in Oak Tree’s California Cup Classic with wanting to race again today keeping Alex Solid aboard tells me the filly is ready for an upset.

The Goodwood Stakes: Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird returns to action
Prior to the Lady’s Secret, Mine That Bird (#10) will be in a field of ten going 1 1/8 miles in the Goodwood Stakes. As a prep to the Breeders Cup next month, a shift of gears back out to the west coast for Mine That Bird is taking place here and his connections are looking to bounce back from a third place disappointment in the West Virginia Derby two months ago.

I feel a morning line of 7-2 is not enough odds to take Mine That Bird here. Even though I can see Calvin Borel finishing in the money here aboard the Kentucky Derby winner, there are other choices paying around the same odds that are worth a more promising look. Having the worst post position will make it hard enough to have a good trip let alone not having run on the synthetic surface in quite a while.

The battle for a win in this one will end up being between Tiago (#2) and Colonel John (#4) who are each a low price at 4-1 and 3-1 morning lines, respectively. Colonel John should be able to improve from the fifth place finish suffered in Del Mar’s Pacfic Classic, but low 3-1 odds are not worth the uncertainty of form here. Without a finish in the money on the synthetic surface since July, it has me passing here.

Tiago failed on the turf at Del Mar back in August but is now back on the synthetic where he has earned over a million dollars finishing in the money with 8 out of 10 starts. Mike Smith has also never finished out of the money at 1 1/8 mile distance aboard Tiago and this has included races against top notch competition like last year’s Breeders Cup Classic. As long as the odds stay at least 4-1, my choice at the betting windows to win will be Tiago.

Shadwell Turf Mile headlines big money Keeneland card on Saturday
Keeneland is loaded with big purse money today and topping it all is the $600,000 Shadwell Turf Mile. My choice there would be Battle of Hastings (#5) at a morning line of 5-1 who has been one of the most consistent contenders on turf this year. Last month, he lost the Del Mar Derby at a longer 1 1/8 mile distance by a nose but was sharp and reached a career-high speed figure there. 5-1 odds would be a real overlay in what should be a strong chance to bounce back with a win here at a shorter one mile distance where Battle of Hastings has won two out of three lifetime starts.

Sunday afternoon racing action on ESPN: The Juddmonte Spinster Stakes
If you need a break for a few minutes from NFL action on Sunday, ESPN will be televising the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes from Keeneland. This race will feature older fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the synthetic track for a share of $500,000. Check back tomorrow for a full preview of this card as a big field of 11 contenders should make this a good betting race.

[madmaxx]

Life is Sweet will be in every Zenyatta race for the next 2-3 years and will never beat her. Life is Sweet is certainly talented but is limiting herself by entering every Zenyatta race. She should go elsewhere, pick up some wins, and try later down the road.

If anyone beats Zenyatta today it will be Lethal Heat who has been close a couple times now. She will fly on the front end as usual and hope no one gets her.

Zenyatta is just too much for these fields though, she cruises today.

[TonyP]

boxed Letal Heat, Made for Magic, and Zenyatta hit the last ex had 3,8/1,2,3,4,8

[madmaxx]

you had that 8? nice hit.

pisses me off when these shippers (especially with their own jockeys) come in and win. moreso in SoCal. Had Colonel John big

[TonyP]

yeah my puter is real slow so did not post however posted it in the contest I was trying to have. This time of year you have to watch out for the invaders trying to get in Breeders Cup and he was good enough

[madmaxx]

Too easy for Z. Lethal Heat ran a pretty big race. I have no idea why they continue to waste Life if Sweet having her do the exact same thing every race which is sit back and somehow try to outkick Zenyatta...wasted this filly bigtime.

[madmaxx]

oh and I will NEVER BET TIAGO AGAIN...so sick of that asshole

[TonyP]

Originally Posted by TonyP

boxed Letal Heat, Made for Magic, and Zenyatta hit the last ex had 3,8/1,2,3,4,8

got this one also

[TonyP]

Originally Posted by madmaxx

oh and I will NEVER BET TIAGO AGAIN...so sick of that asshole

you and me both I just thought smitty's clock was off and gave him a bad ride last out so put him underneath and still nothing

[Reload]

Originally Posted by madmaxx

oh and I will NEVER BET TIAGO AGAIN...so sick of that asshole

Yeah, madmaxx - I went down the Tiago toilet yesterday

As for Zenyatta, a very nice race she ran but I sure would not have wanted the bridge-jumping chalk odds being paid. 10-1 seemed like an especially big overlay on Life Is Sweet and I have no regrets taking a chance with her.

[thezzone]

How can you possibly bet against Zenyatta anyway??? Wait, I know, they will lay her back as the chalk and claim they were getting ready for the Breeders....what's that 13-0?? Tied Personal Ensign's record????...potential to take on the boys in the CLASSIC (likely, although I wouldn't run her there...retire her undefeated) best filly/mare PERIOD...I was so looking forward to a hook-up with Rachel Alexander( that woulda been worth the price of admission)....crap!!!!! They run in the CLASSIC if her connections think she has a deadly serious shot, otherwise, it'll be the Ladies. If she runs in the Classic..I'll put a 100/win on her just because she deserves it and I won't give a flyin fck if I win or lose...ZENYATTA RULES!!!!