[VegasVic]

There are some certainties this coming season. The Red Wings will be very good, the Islanders very bad, and little will separate all the others. All the season previews are coming out and most are all good reads but none forecast their predictions from a gambler’s view. Instead of focusing on what player has value on a fantasy level I look at this coming season from a betting perspective.

I wont break down every team in the NHL during this thread or advise what player you should draft in your pool. But I will offer you some opinions on what angles I will use to make my hockey season profitable. I hope to make this a running thread during the pre-season and encourage your contributions.


Atlanta Thrashers
Back their opponent on the goal line when the Thrashers go on the road.

Perhaps it’s because they have one of the most prolific scorers in hockey, (Ilya Kovalchuk), or because they have never been known to play much defense. Perhaps it’s just because they play in the wide open Southeast division where 5-4 finishes are common but I always thought of Atlanta as being a team to play the over with. However, the Thrashers played to the under in 2007-08, (35-45-2), mostly due to the fact that they could only muster 216 goals for the season., (ranked 22nd in the league with a 2.5 GPG average).

However the real profits betting on, (or against), Atlanta last season wasn't in the totals. Their lack of offense contributed to another profitable angle. Back their opponent on the goal line whenever the Thrashers took to the road.

Atlanta was 15-21-1-4 on the road last year. Of those 21 road regulation loses, 20 were by more than one goal. It wasn’t until March the 18th until they lost their first road game, (in regulation), by just one goal. Not surprisingly they ranked 28th in road offense with a 2.2 GPG average. Once you got the Thrashers away from the frenzied crowds of Blueland they became the worst team in hockey and were routinely blown out of games.

Before you think it’s easy to look at this in hindsight consider this proactive stance. They had this atrocious record last year with Marian Hossa feeding Kovalchuk, (at least for most of the year). This year it looks to be Erik Christensen and Jason Williams setting him up. I like Jason Williams but face it. He’s no Marian Hossa. After this top line the talent pool at forward drops off dramatically. Most teams should have little trouble in defending against this one line wonder and goal scoring still looks to be a concern for them on the road.



Boston Bruins
Wager the under on totals of 5.5 or against the Western Conference.

Bruins weakness last year was not owning any puck moving defensemen that could push the attack through the neutral zone. So what was their lone major off season acquisition? They picked up Michael Ryder. Brilliant!

When your projected top line consists of Marco Sturm, Ryder, and Marc Savard the Bruins clearly will exhibit a defense first system again this year. The Bruins had just two players reach 20 goal seasons last year, (Sturm 27 and Chuck Kobasew 22). Patrice Bergeron does return after missing nearly the entire season with a serious concussion but you have to question how he’ll perform or how long he’ll perform for.

Two things you can be certain of. The Bruins will struggle with their transition game again this year and coach Claude Julien will stress defense first. His game plan has to be the same as last year. His roster demands it. They will clog up the opposition’s passing lanes and neutral zone. They will force their opponent to take low percentage shots from the half boards or outside the dots. They will dump and chase.

They will not have enough offense to make it to the playoffs this year but can still be a profitable team for us by backing their totals to go under. Their O/U/P last year came in at 30-49-3. In the playoffs they continued the trend at 2-3-2 and if it wasn’t for the Carey Price meltdowns in games 5 and 6 no game would have went over the total.

Two strong angles should be noted regarding the Bruins propensity to go under the number.

1) Last year they went 21-41 when the total was set at 5.5.

2) The Bruins recorded a 1-8-1 O/U mark versus the Western Conference last year.

In the ten games they played versus the west only once did the two teams combine to score more than 5 goals. That lone game was early in the season, at Los Angeles, and had Manny Fernandez against Jonathan Bernier in nets. Seven goals were scored in the third period alone and the 8-6 Bruins final went a long way in skewing Boston’s season ending 5.1 goals per game average.

It should be also noted that the Bruins were only 1 of 4 Eastern Conference teams to have a winning record against the west.

[mr. leisure]

Good stuff as always vic,looking forward to a great season !

[bigboydan]

Always look forward to sharing puck info with you Mr.Vic.

[Give It Away]

I'm going to get an NHL thread going when the season starts and then you'll see what's going on.....

[Lippsman]

Once again Atlanta did nothing to shore up thier D. If they win a game they had better put up 4 goals a game

[fiveteamer]

I've been betting hockey since I was 13.

Not saying I'm great, or making money every year.

Just sayin'.

gl this year!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

yea good break down vic, what you guys think about Tampa Bay, they made alot of noise getting new players and coaches this year. they start off the season in Europe with 2 games vs the Rangers. Not sure all the new players will make them good out the gate, and remember they were tied for dead last in the league last year. might get some good odds fading them early in the year.

[element1286]

Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

yea good break down vic, what you guys think about Tampa Bay, they made alot of noise getting new players and coaches this year. they start off the season in Europe with 2 games vs the Rangers. Not sure all the new players will make them good out the gate, and remember they were tied for dead last in the league last year. might get some good odds fading them early in the year.

No defense, Meszaros and Carle are good young guys but they have no anchor on defense. I agree they will probably be overpriced at the beginning of the year. I could see them having some chemistry issues and the unders might be a good thing to look at as well.

[VegasVic]

Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

yea good break down vic, what you guys think about Tampa Bay, they made alot of noise getting new players and coaches this year. they start off the season in Europe with 2 games vs the Rangers. Not sure all the new players will make them good out the gate, and remember they were tied for dead last in the league last year. might get some good odds fading them early in the year.

Lots of pros and cons for this team.

As element1286 pointed out their blueline is most definitely an issue. It is thin and very young. Not a good combination for a defensive corps.

They finally have a good tender in Smith, (which has been a Achilles heel ever since Khabibulin’s departure), and a competent backup in Kolzig. They are stacked in the forward lines and scoring shouldn’t a problem. I’m leaning the other way than element1286 on his opinion for the totals with Tampa Bay. I think the combination of the depth at forward, inexperience at defense, and coach Melrose’s style, (at least in the past), of letting his boys play, will lead to some large scores and I’ll be looking to back any game over 5.5 especially within their own division or conference.

One big concern for me is the health on Lacavalier’s shoulder and how it will take to punishment. He goes down again and they’re done.

All this being said I took a flyer on them at 50/1.

[element1286]

Originally Posted by VegasVic

Lots of pros and cons for this team.

As element1286 pointed out their blueline is most definitely an issue. It is thin and very young. Not a good combination for a defensive corps.

They finally have a good tender in Smith, (which has been a Achilles heel ever since Khabibulin’s departure), and a competent backup in Kolzig. They are stacked in the forward lines and scoring shouldn’t a problem. I’m leaning the other way than element1286 on his opinion for the totals with Tampa Bay. I think the combination of the depth at forward, inexperience at defense, and coach Melrose’s style, (at least in the past), of letting his boys play, will lead to some large scores and I’ll be looking to back any game over 5.5 especially within their own division or conference.

One big concern for me is the health on Lacavalier’s shoulder and how it will take to punishment. He goes down again and they’re done.

All this being said I took a flyer on them at 50/1.

I was kind of going against the grain as far as totals. I agree that divisional games with totals around 5.5 should be seriously considered for the over. I was thinking that they might get overvalued at the beginning of the year, and the totals might be artificially high, like 6.5 or 7 regularly. Which I would take the under, but it all based on where the market places their value.

I do like Mike Smith, he is should be good enough, and Lecavailer is very concerning, he is as important to his team as anyone in the league.

[VegasVic]

Originally Posted by element1286

I was kind of going against the grain as far as totals. I agree that divisional games with totals around 5.5 should be seriously considered for the over. I was thinking that they might get overvalued at the beginning of the year, and the totals might be artificially high, like 6.5 or 7 regularly. Which I would take the under, but it all based on where the market places their value.

I do like Mike Smith, he is should be good enough, and Lecavailer is very concerning, he is as important to his team as anyone in the league.

Nothing wrong with contrarian thinking.

You're probably right. The odds makers may price me out of any chance to take these guys over. I think 6 will be a common number posted for this team. No way in the world T.B playing either Washington or Carolina would have a total set less than 6...would it?

[element1286]

Originally Posted by VegasVic

Nothing wrong with contrarian thinking.

You're probably right. The odds makers may price me out of any chance to take these guys over. I think 6 will be a common number posted for this team. No way in the world T.B playing either Washington or Carolina would have a total set less than 6...would it?

Probably not.

[Lippsman]

I think you should give the TB unders a close look the first few weeks before the oddsmakers catch on about Smith. That guy is way under the radar right now.

Also I don't think we will see anything over 6 until we actually start to see those goals go in.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

is smith gonna be the starter for sure? the rumor was they were gonna trade him (new owners going crazy) thats why the brought in Kolzig, but i guess the better goalie will win the job in training camp

[VegasVic]

Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

is smith gonna be the starter for sure? the rumor was they were gonna trade him (new owners going crazy) thats why the brought in Kolzig, but i guess the better goalie will win the job in training camp

Nothing is for sure and I'm sure you're right regarding earning the #1 spot in training camp.

However Smith is the better tender in my opinion and despite having a poor showing after Tampa Bay picked him up late last year I think he'll adjust well with a full season ahead of him. He has never been a number one and he has some critics saying he's not capable of handling the position. I hardly doubt that Smith would ever be traded considering they thought enough of him to gave up Brad Richards for him.

I think they got Kolzig to help mentor Smith and fill in. I was not impressed with Ollie last year. There were a few games he stood on his head but far too many more where he didn't. Still Ollie is a class guy and I'd be happy for him to have a monstrous year.

[element1286]

Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

is smith gonna be the starter for sure? the rumor was they were gonna trade him (new owners going crazy) thats why the brought in Kolzig, but i guess the better goalie will win the job in training camp

That would be very stupid as Smith is a better goalie right now, and is 10 years or so younger.

[VegasVic]

Fade Calgary In October

October is not Calgary’s month. Since the lockout the Flames have started their seasons in the following manner.

2005-06.….Calgary won just 4 of their first 13 games.
2006-07.…..Calgary won just 3 of their first 12.
2007-08.…..Calgary won just 6 of their first 17.

13 wins and 29 loses. After that they post winning records and have made the playoffs every year.

I can’t explain entirely why this dichotomy exists but a good beginning would be to look at Miikka Kiprusoff’s splits. He is a notorious slow starter. His lifetime October GAA is 2.98 and includes a .893 save percentage. More than one half goal worse than any other month during the season.

Kiprusoff has another disturbing trend. His numbers have steadily declined since he led Calgary into the 2004 Stanley Cup final. After he was traded to Calgary, (in November 2003), he posted a 1.69 GAA and .933 save percentage for the Flames in the '03-'04 season.

In 2005-06 his numbers rose to 2.07, .923.
I suppose we can excuse that jump to the new rules of the post lockout NHL. But what excuse can we give him for the next two years?

When the league averages for scoring began to steady, (and eventually decline), Kipprusoff’s continued to climb.

2006-07.……..2.46 GAA…… .917 save percentage
2007-08.…….2.69 GAA……. .906 save percentge

His GAA has risen exactly one full goal since 2003.

Kiprusoff and the Flames have another long standing trend. They win at home and struggle on the road. Since the lockout Calgary has won 81 of their 123 home games. At the Saddledome Kiprusoff has a lifetime record of 92-31-3-15, (W-L-T-OTL). He has 18 shutouts in those games, a 1.94 GAA, and .927 save percentage. On the road his lifetime GAA grows to 2.77.

How does this home/road split translate into Calgary’s futile Octobers?

I mentioned earlier the Flames had a 13-29 record to start the last three seasons. The home/road breakdown amounts to, 9-12 at home and 5-17 on the road. Clearly profitable numbers either way considering the juice you’d have to lay fading them on the road or the plus price you’d get by betting against them at home.

Calgary Flames
October 2008

9 @VAN
11 VAN
14 COL
17 EDM
18 @EDM
21 WAS
23 @NSH
25 @PHO
28 COL
30 BOS

[bigboydan]

Would you lay the puckline opposed to the moneyline though Mr.Vic?

[nojuice]

good luck this up-coming season, are you going to post here ?

[VegasVic]

Originally Posted by bigboydan

Would you lay the puckline opposed to the moneyline though Mr.Vic?

At first I considered that Dan but looking at each game individually I found there weren't enough 2 goal margins to merit it. I don't have the figures off the top of my head but the strongest attack on this angle was to play the money line, at least according to what has happened in the past.

Perhaps taking a proactive stance for this year, (playing the puck line), would be even more profitable but my gut says don't get greedy. Could just end up turning a winner into a loser.

[VegasVic]

Originally Posted by nojuice

good luck this up-coming season, are you going to post here ?

I plan on it nojuice...... as well across the road.

[element1286]

It would be nice to see some more scoring this year, last year we went back to the old NHL, get a lead, and play the trap.

[JRS21386]

Doesnt hockey pre-season start next week?

[element1286]

Originally Posted by JRS21386

Doesnt hockey pre-season start next week?

I'm going to the Pens/Lightning pre-season game on Saturday night. Which I think is the first pre-season game for anyone.

[JRS21386]

Originally Posted by element1286

I'm going to the Pens/Lightning pre-season game on Saturday night. Which I think is the first pre-season game for anyone.

Thats awesome.. Im glad its here..

[VegasVic]

Originally Posted by element1286

I'm going to the Pens/Lightning pre-season game on Saturday night. Which I think is the first pre-season game for anyone.

I'm hitting up the Ducks/Sharks prospect game tonight in Vegas. Really looking forward to see some live hockey.