[adamcm]

Hi all,

I started writing a computer app last year to simulate a hockey game in an effort to increase my gambling success. I think I am ready to start using it since most teams have played enough games.


Background
- The simulation plays 5000 games for each game on the board
- I have the data split up between road and home
- The simulation was tested "on the fly" last season and I stupidly did not save month to month stats. So over the summer I repeatedly tested for the month of April using various different algorithms.
- I found that the most profitable approach to betting using this sim was to bet the Money Line for anything less than -200, bet the regulation win for anything between -200 and -300, and to leave anything over a -300 alone.
- Right now I only play the Money Lines, but am hoping to see some trends for over/unders next season.
- If I used this simulation last April I would have gained about 1 unit per day. I am hoping I will see similar results through the whole season, but who knows.
- I use a standard bet size of 2 units per play no matter the ML.

Anyways, i'll just post my picks here. I realize the is a bit unconventional and many betters will not want to pay into so much juice. I completely understand. Feel free to play them/fade them or just see how it goes. There will be good nights and bad nights, let's just hope the number of good ones are greater than the bad ones!

[whatsgood5]

Looking forward to seeing this, good luck with your picks!

[adamcm]

Picks for today:

Nashville vs Los Angeles (-123 in Regulation)
Detroit (-141) vs Toronto
Tampa Bay vs Montreal (-140)
New Jersey vs Ottawa (-137)
Atlanta (+107) vs New York Islanders
Florida vs Washington (-155)
Carolina vs Columbus (-113 in Regulation)
Dallas (+112) vs Minnesota
NY Rangers vs Calgary (-140)
Phoenix (+137) vs Anaheim

[adamcm]

Originally Posted by whatsgood5

Looking forward to seeing this, good luck with your picks!

Thanks! I've been watching your picks as well, great start so far!

[whatsgood5]

Thanks man, off the top of my head I know I'm on Detroit and I think Phoenix too. Probably 1 or 2 more. These plays look good, good luck!

[adamcm]

Well that was brutal.

The 3 days before went really well and of course the days I post my picks, they become all crap! I'll keep posting over the next two weeks and hope these picks eventually make there way over .500. Man, what a crappy start! Feel free to fade away.

Last night: 3-7

Today's plays:

St. Louis @ Atlanta (-121)
Edmonton @ Colorado (-176)

[whatsgood5]

I think I ended up going 3-7 or maybe even 2-8 yesterday. Fortunately one of those wins was on the Predators -1 +406. Still a terrible day.

Im on ATL as well. I did take Edmonton though. GL

[keyboarding]

Originally Posted by adamcm

Well that was brutal.

The 3 days before went really well and of course the days I post my picks, they become all crap! I'll keep posting over the next two weeks and hope these picks eventually make there way over .500. Man, what a crappy start! Feel free to fade away.

Last night: 3-7

Today's plays:

St. Louis @ Atlanta (-121)
Edmonton @ Colorado (-176)

I disagree with both picks. Good luck though.

[adamcm]

1-1 lat night.

Going with the Blackhawks (-148) today.

[adamcm]

Won last night with the Hawks to bring the record to an ugly 5-8. Let's hope for a nice night tonight to get back to .500. I like seeing the simulation selecting road favorites and dogs at the same time.

Pittsburgh (+117) vs Boston
Minnesota vs Toronto (-140)
Calgary (-120) vs Montreal
Edmonton (+131) vs Ottawa
Vancouver (+106) vs St. Louis
Nashville vs San Jose (-149 in regulation)

Good luck tonight everyone.