Tor @ Ana (Won 10 of last 11, even payouts or better)
I've been on a role since I've consistently posted picks here with my new strategy
http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-han...4-edm-van.html
http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-han...ither-way.html
http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-han...t-phoenix.html
http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-han...-colorado.html
Basically what I try to do is bet games with even money payout or better (underdogs, unlikely O/U, spreads on favs) and my goal is to hit 50% of them. I've been doing well by only choosing games where I can actually write down my reason for choosing them. I feel it installs discipline since I force myself to come up with good reasons to make a bet rather than gut feel.
Even though I aim for only 50% accuracy, preferably no less than that any given night, I've been 10-1 so far using this strategy. Let's hope the karma police doesn't view this as bragging and give me a nice long losing streak
Tor @ Ana:
Toronto was actually very impressive offensively on Saturday, particularly in the final few minutes but could just not get a puck past Luongo. Neither Hiller nor Giguere is Luongo and if they get 36 shots on Anaheim like they did on Vancouver, chances are more than one of them will go in.
The problem for the Leafs is Anaheim is definitely not Vancouver on the offensive side either. The Leafs gave up 24 shots with a goalie present which I think is the lowest total they gave up all year (from memory, I might be wrong on this) and two still went in. It took Vancouver 5 tries from centre ice or closer to get the bloody puck in on an empty net!
Anaheim has two complete scoring lines and any team with two complete scoring lines has throttled the Leafs this year as Kaberle cannot play 60 minutes a game. Even the Rangers scored 11 goals in two games against them and they don't have what Anaheim has on offense despite the current differential in goal totals between the two teams. Barring a miracle from third-stringer and career journeyman McDonald (he does have one shutout in his career) this will be a slaughter. Anaheim spread pays at 2.80 so I couldn't resist that type of potential payout in this matchup.
Given the high likelihood that Anaheim will score 4 or more goals and the Leafs 2 or more my plays for tomorrow are:
Ana -1.5 @ 2.80
total over 6 @ 2.00 payout
I moved early on both of these since I have a feeling both lines will move in my direction and I wanted to at least breakeven since I can also see a 4-3 or 5-4 ending as the Leafs are playing better...but 3-2 or 2-1? Not likely.
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Originally Posted by ower
