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Old 10-05-09, 09:35 PM   #1
ZXCVBNM
Crew/Fire over 2.5
 
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Joined: 09-17-08
Posts: 1,027
 
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Question Merits of playing big-ish favorites -1 or to win in regulation?

Just curious because as the season gets going there are teams I ride, and I just don't like laying the -150 or -160 that seems common.

Example:

Today the Canucks are -160, the -1 is +114 and "win in regulation" is +101.

I've always been partial to the -1 lines. It results in a lot of pushing sometimes but I'd rather get better odds in the first place. I'm too much of a chicken to go for a win in regulation because I'm guessing around 30% of games go into overtime, that guaranteed point is a good incentive for half-trying the last 10 minutes.

So I guess the question is, which do you prefer, if you prefer any alternatives at all?
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Old 10-06-09, 01:29 AM   #2
Blargh
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Your guess of 30% is a bit high.
Games going into OT have remarkably consistent the past 4 years.
05-06 22.93%
06-07 22.85%
07-08 22.11%
08-09 22.93%

For the sake of curiousity
03-04 11.79%
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