Just ran the stats from 6,299 games over the last 5 years where the line moved:
If you were to bet the closing line of the team in which the line moved towards, you would be down 285 units
Be smart boys. Looking forward to this year
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08-07-12 05:16 PM #1
"Line movement is extremely important in hockey"
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08-07-12 10:05 PM #2
Yup I tell everyone this but no one believes me
Hockey is one of the few non corrupt sports left.
Nice research to back this up
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08-07-12 10:35 PM #3
What's the %?
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08-08-12 12:55 AM #4
this is bogus lines move all the time to attract even action
RLM is a different story
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08-08-12 06:08 PM #5
You're going to find the same result in any efficient market. If the closing line is efficient, then taking whichever side at that point will result in you paying the juice. Once a line has moved, you've lost value simply taking the new line based on which direction it moved from the old one.
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08-08-12 08:12 PM #6
obviously dude, you show me where SBR tracks public pct and I will gladly do the research, however on the NHL odds page, what you see is what you get; not to mention they had some NBA games in there, was wondering why one team scored 100 pts in one game.
Originally Posted by lunchbawks
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08-08-12 09:21 PM #7
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08-09-12 09:07 AM #8
the 285 points looks like it is just juice. assuming you go 50/50 on the bets, you'd win 3150 of them. your 10% loss due to juice would be 315 units. 285 units is less than that.
the expected value of losses purely from juice is -315 units. if you are only down -285 units, you are beating the odds. You were supposed to be down 315, so you are 30 units ahead of where you should be. you are still losing, but it shows how hard it is to beat the books long term.
-285 units sounds terrible... but you have to take into consideration that you are talking about 6,300 bets. That is SIX THOUSAND, THREE HUNDRED BETS. That is A LOT of bets.
I'm not making a case for line movement. I'm just saying that if you place 6,300 bets and are only down 285 units... it's not that bad since your expected value (10% juice) is -315. You are 30 units ahead of where you should be.$30
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