[shantystar]

WAS Capitals @ NY Rangers Over 4.5 +115 .

[qsilver335]

I like it, I will be on this as well. Too much value at +115 to pass up. Good luck!

[zizoudane10]

Over 4.5 @+115??? Where do you get this line?? Over 4.5 @-125 and under 4.5 @+115 at Pinnacle right now.

[NickJ3]

On the under expecting a 2-1 or 3-1 victory nothing more than that, the goalies no what time it is and if anything they will be on there A game especially Lunquist (Excuse the spelling if wrong). BOL YALL

[Mriceyman]

Iv lost all week wth overs... idk wat to think bout tonite.. shud be low scoring

[Miser]

The over is now juiced to -135 on Bookmaker

[PuckIt]

I don't think the O4.5 was EVER +$

[NotSammySosa]

now its over 5 +145, under 5 -157

[PuckIt]

I'm liking Caps O2 -120

[PuckIt]

I don't see the line changed to 5 anywhere?

[PuckIt]

Caps OVER 0.5 [1st] -105 is $

[zizoudane10]

I don't think the O4.5 was EVER +$

[niteowl]

First, I agree that the Over (4.5) in this game was never plus money, as it's been floating between -125 and -145 the last two days.

This has been a low scoring series so far, with the six games averaging just 4.25 total gpg and none of them with > 5 goals, mostly due to stellar play by both defenses and goalies, but also due to some poor execution on offense by both teams, more so NY. And as a result, the six games are 0-3-3 to the Under, again with an average of 4.25 total gpg. That’s consistent with NYR’s overall 1-6-6 Under mark in their 13 playoff games so far TY, and 2-3-2 Under mark in the 7 PO games that were at home, with an average of 4.3 total gpg in those 7 playoff HGs. And it’s also consistent with Wash’s overall 3-7-3 Under mark in their 13 playoff games so far, and 1-4-2 Under mark in their 7 PO games that were away, with an average of just 4.0 total gpg in those 7 roadies. And I am 2-0-1 so far going Under in this series.

So with that backdrop, why would I take the Over in this game? Very simple – by posting this beatably low totals line of 4.5 goals, the line makers have over-reacted to the large number of playoff Unders already posted by these two teams in TY’s playoffs (4-11-7 Under in their 22 combined playoff games so far). As a result, I see a golden opportunity for a high % line value play on the Over, based on the following support and line value analysis: first, note that if the score is tied 2-2 at any point in the game, we are guaranteed a win with the Over 4.5. Second, look at NYR’s totals record at home (19-19, with 11 “pushes,” all vs a line of 5) and NYR’s totals record of 15-20 to the Under, but with an incredibly high 25 “pushes,” in their 60 games TY when the totals line has been 5. Third, the Caps’ totals record on the road TY was 24-20 to the Over, with 4 “pushes” vs a line of 5, and in their 25 games TY when the totals line has been 5, Caps were 8-9 to the Under, with 8 pushes (games ending up with a total of 5 goals). Adding up all of those 47 TOTALS PUSHES for both teams in the above described modes VS A TOTALS LINE OF 5 changes the relevant totals records of both teams immensely – more specifically, if the totals line was instead 4.5 in those 47 games, like it is here, the totals records would by NYR 30-19 Over at home, Caps 28-20 Over away, 40-21 Over for NYR vs. a totals line of 4.5, and 16-9 Over for Caps vs. a totals line of 4.5. Those numbers (114-69) add up to a HUGE 63.3% edge for the Over vs a “would be” line of 4.5 in those 183 games (admitting that there is some ‘overlap” in those above 4 categories of totals records). And similarly, while these two have gone 0-3-5 vs the total in their 8 games against each other TY since All Star break, with all 5 pushes vs a line of 5, including 0-1-4 for the five games (of the 8) played in NY, those records would be 5-3 to the Over in the 8 games and 4-1 Over for the five games in NY vs a “would be” totals line of 4.5 in those games.

So even though this game could easily end up a 3-1 or 2-1 Under, I won’t pass up this opportunity to jump on the Over at 4.5, given the above support for this strong line value Over play.

[PuckIt]

Hell of a first post niteowl

I like the Caps O2 -110 play and the game goes to OT +260.

[NotSammySosa]

I don't see the line changed to 5 anywhere?

pinnacle

[dreamlanding]

What about just pounding both team total overs?

WAS o2.5 +165
NYR o2.5 +140

4 of 6 games have had one team score 3, and I could easily see this ending up 2-2 @ some point for the guaranteed profit.

[Pivotpoint]

I lean towards the over, but as of now passing. Over 4 1/2 is -135 where I play. I lean towards the over for one simple fact. Think back how many pucks rang off the pipes in the last couple games.

This game could be real tight and the over could be easily impacted by penalties. An early power play goal could really change the pace of the game and open things up.

I agree with the Caps (TT) Over 2 . Played it at -120, (1x). Ovechkin should be good for one, maybe Backstrom another?

My main play is the Caps. 2X -130. I was hoping that the Rangers fans would pound the home team and I could do better than +130, but looks like wishful thinking. Game down to Caps +115 as I type.

Anything can happen in a game 7 and I'm fired up for this game. For those into stats, I thought the following was eye opening.

Rangers have not scored against the Caps at full strength over the last 144:52 minutes of play. ( Do they need help from refs to score)?

Rangers have held the lead for a total of 22 minutes over the last 5 (gms), have not held the lead at all in any of the three games they have lost, and have not held a 3rd period lead for so much as a second after Gm 1. Wow.

Good luck with your choices, boys. Off to get some pizza and more beer before the drop of the puck. What's not to like about game 7's ?

[FindTheLock]

U2.5 is +1305 at 5D

[leeloo]

I'm very surprised so many like the over. Thought game 7's are supposed to be tight, low scoring games, very defensive as no one wants to make a mistake. Wish you all luck but I have a feeling the under will hit in this one.

[Pivotpoint]

I'm very surprised so many like the over. Thought game 7's are supposed to be tight, low scoring games, very defensive as no one wants to make a mistake. Wish you all luck but I have a feeling the under will hit in this one.

That Un 4 1/2 is a nasty #. If it cashes, you'll sweat it out the whole game.

[Miser]

Well I'm on the under. I thought about it and all the games so far have been defensive. I only bet 25 bucks cause who knows what way this game will go.

[Miser]

What do you over backers think of the Rangers strategy of blockading and collapsing on their own net

[nrok2118]

That Un 4 1/2 is a nasty #. If it cashes, you'll sweat it out the whole game.

Thats why Im watching baseball and check the 1-0 score at 2nd intermission

[leeloo]

Thats why Im watching baseball and check the 1-0 score at 2nd intermission

You rather miss watching a game 7 than to sweat it out? Best option is to put a small unit so you don't get hurt if it loses and ENJOY the game.

[FindTheLock]

You rather miss watching a game 7 than to sweat it out? Best option is to put a small unit so you don't get hurt if it loses and ENJOY the game.

I could be wrong, but I believe he was being facetious when he made that post about watching baseball and sweating the 1-0 lead.

[nrok2118]

so when it went 2-1 i got nervous and bought the over to guarantee a few bucks, should have trusted the play

[icecapper]

Yikes fellas, anyone who took the Over hasn't been watching this series. Can count the number of grade A scoring chances on one hand.