Quote:
Originally Posted by TodaysAction
With camps opening around the lands, would be interested in reading your thoughts on futures and season point totals or you could put them on your SBR spreadsheet.  |
Regarding point totals, I already have
my numbers and just waiting till the Hilton posts theirs, (probably at least a week away). The Hilton tends to be the first to post season point totals then offshore shops will basically copy and paste the Hilton’s openers. At least that’s what happened last year.
In a nut shell I anticipate leaning to taking Western conference teams over and Eastern under due to the new schedule and unbalanced talent level. Both of these factors may or may not be reflected in those opening numbers. If they are, I’ll adjust. If not, I’ll hammer away. I know this theory sounds very elementary and broad but it’s a strategic starting point and from there I’ll modify my thinking as necessary.
As far as futures you really need to find something with what you consider positive expected value,(+EV). This includes taking a team you will ride to the end or a team you just hope to make the post season and then hedge for a profit. Generally my strategy leans to the latter.
For me grasping the concept of +EV in regard to future betting is a rudimentary exercise. Consider the team, consider the odds placed on them to win the cup, consider the path they need to travel to get there, consider their opponents, consider the intangibles. For instance if this season played out 24 times in it‘s entirety, (with all the information we have at present), could the Dallas Stars win the cup once? If you believe they could then anything at 25/1 or better would be +EV.
My next rule is to never bet any chalk at say 10/1 or less. I don’t think any team in this parity driven NHL deserves the tag of 10/1 or less. Too much can happen during the course of a season for any team, (including the Detroit Red Wings), to be such heavy chalk. As much as I like the Red Wings what happens if just a couple key guys are lost for a prolonged period of time, especially during the playoffs? Case in point….Last year for about a three week period both Niklas Lidstrom and Brian Rafalski went down at the same time. The Wings went 2-6.
Choosing teams at higher odds to hedge if they make the playoffs is a touch more complicated and I don‘t want this post to run on forever. But in short…things you need to consider is, at what point to do you start the hedging process, how much of a bankroll do you have, what were the odds you got at the start of the year, and how much has that team’s stock risen during the course of the season. Last year I had Washington at 200/1. Hedging was a simple process because the odds were so high, they ended up being a three seed, and series prices were within a reasonable range. Lastly I had plenty of bankroll to invest all the way even if they made it to the Stanley Cup finals.
For what it’s worth I tend to play numerous teams to win the cup. I place some of these bets in the summer and continue to invest during the year when I see something I consider of value in relation to what’s happening at that moment. Inevitably I have several futures riding come playoff time and this makes the hedging process much more simplistic and financially viable.
For the record…at the moment I have Dallas at 25/1 for a large investment.
Smaller plays on Tampa Bay at 50/1, Chicago at 40/1 and Edmonton at 50/1.
Spread, Total or Puck-line
