[toastedbread01]

I was wondering if anyone had experimented with this, or if this had been studied before?

For instance say a line opens at +3 and moves to +6 at closing. Assuming no injuries or suspensions or anything unusual. How would one perform by always taking the extra 3 points or any extra amount, for that matter.

Thanks.

[donjuan]

Not very well. The market is better than the linesmakers.

[dwaechte]

It's been discussed and some are pretty strong believers in doing something like that, but personally I didn't think they were well informed or that their arguments were very persuasive. Although, most of the arguments were centered around less movement(say 1 or 2 points rather than 3).

Plus, I doubt you'd find many plays that fit this description. For a game to move 3 points without anything "unusual" would be very unusual in itself.

[Justin7]

You will see this frequently in the last week or so of NFL. A good team plays a meaningless game, and rests all its starters. Every one of them. Line moves of 3+ are not unusual, and the "better team" almost always loses badly. In this case, the line move is sharp.

research it, and tell me what you find. But don't bet it without some good data.

[durito]

This thread is basically the same idea:

Outside The Box

It rightfully got moved out of the think tank, if that gives you an idea of how well this idea should work.

[dwaechte]

Originally Posted by durito

This thread is basically the same idea:

Outside The Box

It rightfully got moved out of the think tank, if that gives you an idea of how well this idea should work.

That's the one I was thinking of, couldn't find it though.

[smitch124]

Originally Posted by durito

This thread is basically the same idea:

Outside The Box

It rightfully got moved out of the think tank, if that gives you an idea of how well this idea should work.

Why are all the "thes" in red in that thread it's very annoying..

[durito]

because i searched for outside the box

use this

Outside The Box

[smitch124]

Its actually a very informative thread Durito, now the first point may be off but the rebuttals are very interesting.

[RickySteve]

Fading moves is hardly the worst idea in the world. I'd certainly rather have the +6 than the -6.

[Peep]

If you would like to test your idea rather than just talk about it, Jim Fiest.com has opening and closing lines for most sports last three years in an easily accessable format.

http://www.jimfeist.com/

[Cyclone]

I did a lot of testing (and wasted a lot of money) on this a few years ago, and I couldn't find an advantage. Maybe there is something to it and I just couldn't find it, but I wouldn't be very optimistic.