1. #1
    dmolition
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    Interception Odds?

    If a QB has averaged 11 int in his 14 games and
    and is playing a team that averaged 22 int in their last 16 games,

    how do i get the expected interception for this particular game, im having trouble normalizing.

  2. #2
    Justin7
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    Expected INT = QB Int rate * Def int rate / League avg int rate

    What is the league average?

  3. #3
    Thremp
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    I approve the new J7 message answering "Log5" when "Log5" is the correct answer. Little worried we'd be making a power ranking, but all is well.

  4. #4
    Justin7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
    I approve the new J7 message answering "Log5" when "Log5" is the correct answer. Little worried we'd be making a power ranking, but all is well.
    Thremp,

    Why don't you explain your approach? Do you have any empirical evidence that one approach works better on an interception prop?

  5. #5
    gotemcoach1523
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    Go steelers!!!

  6. #6
    lemart5
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    what is the league average for expected INT?

  7. #7
    Thremp
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Thremp, Why don't you explain your approach? Do you have any empirical evidence that one approach works better on an interception prop?
    Do you understand what I said?

    Serious question. If so, do you understand what you said?

    Hint: They're not different.

    The last sentence then remarks on how you've upgraded your knowledge since the last iteration of this style question came around.

  8. #8
    dmolition
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    Thanks for the response,

    just want to check up the math,

    So if i understand correctly a QB int rate is 11 int in 400 passing attempts multiplied by 100
    so its int rate would be 2.75

    Same goes for defense i imagine, so lets say defense int rate is 2.6

    and league average could be 2.2 (the league average for QB int rate right?)

    Exp INT = (2.75*2.6)/2.2
    Exp INT= 3.25

    Thanks again.

  9. #9
    Thremp
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    Justin7,

    Do you have empirical evidence that Bayes Theorem is incorrect?

  10. #10
    Justin7
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    No.

  11. #11
    Thremp
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
    Thremp, Why don't you explain your approach? Do you have any empirical evidence that one approach works better on an interception prop?
    Could you point out why you view what I wrote as "my" approach? I only see one approach possibly suggested in this thread. Once explained in process and once by name. There seems to be some misunderstanding.

  12. #12
    dmolition
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    What method would you use Thremp?

  13. #13
    Thremp
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    dmolition,

    Was I unclear at some point? My first post pretty clearly explains the methodology I'd use. And my approval of answering a question correctly in an authoritative tone, as opposed to incorrectly in an authoritative tone.

  14. #14
    dmolition
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
    dmolition,

    Was I unclear at some point? My first post pretty clearly explains the methodology I'd use. And my approval of answering a question correctly in an authoritative tone, as opposed to incorrectly in an authoritative tone.
    I take it from your first post you would use some kind of Log5 analysis for the expected QB int rate.

    I know log5 analysis from baseball but that is all, any recommended books where i can find the basics of log5 probabilities so i can come to the conclusion on my own then?

    Thanks for the help.

  15. #15
    Thremp
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    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds_ratio

    Its from that, which is apparently a derivative of Bayes Theorem.

  16. #16
    dmolition
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds_ratio

    Its from that, which is apparently a derivative of Bayes Theorem.
    Thanks i'll check it out.

  17. #17
    sonnyhowitzer
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    what a game.

  18. #18
    sonnyhowitzer
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    steel too many turn overs odds on win 11%

  19. #19
    CyberSleuth
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    Interesting thread, and thanks for the link.

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