[Ganchrow]

Best currently looks to be Shapsplace +114 (about +111.7 after 2% commission) v. Fred G. Sanford. $5K now on offer.

Now I have no idea what the rules of this contest are, nor the trustworthiness nor identity of the individual handling the grading of these particular X-Bet markets, but were one to assume everything were on the up and up (meaning that no contestant were actually attempting to lose or sabotage his chances via volatility, correlation, odds texture games and/or consistently picking the wring side of stale lines), I think it's fair to say that this likely represents a rather meaty advantage bet.

With truly no disrespect intended to the fine people over at EOG (many of whom I consider friends), I think it rather likely that the Think Tank regulars should be able to fleece these guys not only on these off-market lines but also by providing additional liquidity to these markets.

Personally, I'm staying away (I don't have the time to automate the process and I detest manual labor), but the more adventurous among Think Tank posters might wish to give this some serious consideration.

Before proceeding, however, I would recommend, however, e-mailing trading@amtchbook.com and putting in an immediate request for a reduction in commissions on these markets.

[BuddyBear]

I love Sanford & Son. It is one of the best shows ever made. I have all 6 seasons on DVD and have seen every single episode. You should check it out Ganch....

[xyz]

If we assume that it is basically a coin toss in a short term contest, then any plus odds would represent a +ev opportunity. But how does trading come in to this, Ganch? Thanks for the enligntenment.

Originally Posted by Ganchrow

Best currently looks to be Shapsplace +114 (about +111.7 after 2% commission) v. Fred G. Sanford. $5K now on offer.

Now I have no idea what the rules of this contest are, nor the trustworthiness nor identity of the individual handling the grading of these particular X-Bet markets, but were one to assume everything were on the up and up (meaning that no contestant were actually attempting to lose or sabotage his chances via volatility, correlation, odds texture games and/or consistently picking the wring side of stale lines), I think it's fair to say that this likely represents a rather meaty advantage bet.

With truly no disrespect intended to the fine people over at EOG (many of whom I consider friends), I think it rather likely that the Think Tank regulars should be able to fleece these guys not only on these off-market lines but also by providing additional liquidity to these markets.

Personally, I'm staying away (I don't have the time to automate the process and I detest manual labor), but the more adventurous among Think Tank posters might wish to give this some serious consideration.

Before proceeding, however, I would recommend, however, e-mailing trading@amtchbook.com and putting in an immediate request for a reduction in commissions on these markets.

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by xyz

If we assume that it is basically a coin toss in a short term contest, then any plus odds would represent a +ev opportunity. But how does trading come in to this, Ganch

It woudl come in to play via the monitoring each player's standing within the contest on a day-to-day basis and then using thin conjunction with the binomial distribution (necessitating making certain assumptions regarding each player's likely odds range for future bets).

[Munson15]

Sanford is one unit ahead with a couple of plays left.