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  1. #1

    Default At what rate do +200 dogs in MLB hit?

    Anyone know off hand these numbers? Or any breakdown by say +200 - +220, +221 - +240, etc... Thanks...

    SBR Founder Join Date: 8/10/2005


  2. #2

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    this would be intresting

    i know accuscore.com has it but i never renewed their service

  3. #3

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    my estimate is 30%. blindly betting +200 and you'll lose in the long run.

  4. #4
    Ganchrow's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuddyBear View Post
    Anyone know off hand these numbers? Anyone know off hand these numbers? Or any breakdown by say +200 - +220, +221 - +240, etc... Thanks...
    FWIW, from the 1999 season through May 20th, 2008 and using Covers.com data:

    Dogs of +200 to +220 (N=941):
    Win rate: 32.62%
    Std. Err.: 1.53%
    flat bet ROI: +0.68%
    Std Err of ROI: 4.72%

    Dogs of +221 to +240 (N=323):
    Win rate: 30.34%
    Std. Err.: 2.56%
    flat bet ROI: +0.93%
    Std Err of ROI: 8.52%

    Dogs of +241 to +300 (N=362):
    Win rate: 26.80%
    Std. Err.: 2.33%
    flat bet ROI: -1.20%
    Std Err of ROI: 8.56%

    Dogs of +301+ (N=83):
    Win rate: 25.30%
    Std. Err.: 4.77%
    flat bet ROI: +9.04%
    Std Err of ROI: 20.66%

    All Dogs of +200+ (N=2,083):
    Win rate: 30.56%
    Std. Err.: 1.02%
    flat bet ROI: +0.77%
    Std Err of ROI: 4.72%

    SBR Founder Join Date: 8/28/2005


  5. #5

  6. #6

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    Playing all +200 or better would be much better than playing all faves -200 or worse, I'm pretty sure of that. Thanks for the figures, Ganch.

  7. #7

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    Old Chinese Proverb:

    "It does not matter at what rate +200 dogs hit. What matters is at what rate you are hitting them."

    Confucius 501 BC

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by accuscoresucks View Post
    this would be intresting

    i know accuscore.com has it but i never renewed their service
    Judging your posting handle, I can't understand why.

  9. #9

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    This bring up the question:
    If 44% of dogs win, then how would we do flat betting all dogs of +130 or better?

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by staf View Post
    This bring up the question:
    If 44% of dogs win, then how would we do flat betting all dogs of +130 or better?
    First off, I am no Ganchrow.

    He can do stuff I can't even dream off.

    But I do have a database with 3742 home dogs in it and 11240 road dogs, all at odds of +130 or better.

    The HD won about 40% of their games (1483/3742), at at average price of approximately +154.

    I have the road dogs winning 38% or their games (4323/11240) at an average price of +161.

    I am just getting back into gambling, and am learning access 2007. I like it, can do things I didn't know how to do on my old 2000......

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by staf View Post
    This bring up the question:
    If 44% of dogs win, then how would we do flat betting all dogs of +130 or better?
    You will always make money in this case. The average odds for all dogs of +130 or better has to be greater or equal to +130. Assume the average is +130, then we have

    130*44% - 100*56% = 1.2

    So for every $100 you wager, you expect to make $1.2 or more, since the average odd is likely to be greater than 130.

  12. #12

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    The problem is that the bulk of the 44% winning dogs are less than +130. As Peep pointed out above, all dogs of +130 or better win about 38% of the time, which is a losing proposition if bet blindly.

  13. #13

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    ill take the +200's at 30% for the shortrun... baseball these days are seeing more teams play better. If the Rangers played the Red Sox at fenway and the line was at +210 for the rangers, ide take the shot on it.

  14. #14

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    they always hit when you didn't bet them and rarely when you do

    SBR Founder Join Date: 9/22/2005


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