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Old 06-12-08, 01:37 PM   #1
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Default At what rate do +200 dogs in MLB hit?

Anyone know off hand these numbers? Or any breakdown by say +200 - +220, +221 - +240, etc... Thanks...
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Old 06-12-08, 02:03 PM   #2
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this would be intresting

i know accuscore.com has it but i never renewed their service
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Old 06-12-08, 06:54 PM   #3
pico
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my estimate is 30%. blindly betting +200 and you'll lose in the long run.
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Old 06-14-08, 05:51 AM   #4
Ganchrow
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuddyBear View Post
Anyone know off hand these numbers? Anyone know off hand these numbers? Or any breakdown by say +200 - +220, +221 - +240, etc... Thanks...
FWIW, from the 1999 season through May 20th, 2008 and using Covers.com data:
Dogs of +200 to +220 (N=941):
Win rate: 32.62%
Std. Err.: 1.53%
flat bet ROI: +0.68%
Std Err of ROI: 4.72%

Dogs of +221 to +240 (N=323):
Win rate: 30.34%
Std. Err.: 2.56%
flat bet ROI: +0.93%
Std Err of ROI: 8.52%

Dogs of +241 to +300 (N=362):
Win rate: 26.80%
Std. Err.: 2.33%
flat bet ROI: -1.20%
Std Err of ROI: 8.56%

Dogs of +301+ (N=83):
Win rate: 25.30%
Std. Err.: 4.77%
flat bet ROI: +9.04%
Std Err of ROI: 20.66%

All Dogs of +200+ (N=2,083):
Win rate: 30.56%
Std. Err.: 1.02%
flat bet ROI: +0.77%
Std Err of ROI: 4.72%
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Old 06-16-08, 06:05 PM   #5
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Wow. Pretty solid results.
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Old 06-18-08, 06:53 PM   #6
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Playing all +200 or better would be much better than playing all faves -200 or worse, I'm pretty sure of that. Thanks for the figures, Ganch.
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Old 06-18-08, 08:46 PM   #7
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Old Chinese Proverb:

"It does not matter at what rate +200 dogs hit. What matters is at what rate you are hitting them."

Confucius 501 BC
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Old 06-19-08, 10:51 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by accuscoresucks View Post
this would be intresting

i know accuscore.com has it but i never renewed their service
Judging your posting handle, I can't understand why.
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Old 06-19-08, 11:35 AM   #9
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This bring up the question:
If 44% of dogs win, then how would we do flat betting all dogs of +130 or better?
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Old 06-26-08, 06:10 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by staf View Post
This bring up the question:
If 44% of dogs win, then how would we do flat betting all dogs of +130 or better?
First off, I am no Ganchrow.

He can do stuff I can't even dream off.

But I do have a database with 3742 home dogs in it and 11240 road dogs, all at odds of +130 or better.

The HD won about 40% of their games (1483/3742), at at average price of approximately +154.

I have the road dogs winning 38% or their games (4323/11240) at an average price of +161.

I am just getting back into gambling, and am learning access 2007. I like it, can do things I didn't know how to do on my old 2000......
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Old 06-28-08, 04:39 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by staf View Post
This bring up the question:
If 44% of dogs win, then how would we do flat betting all dogs of +130 or better?
You will always make money in this case. The average odds for all dogs of +130 or better has to be greater or equal to +130. Assume the average is +130, then we have

130*44% - 100*56% = 1.2

So for every $100 you wager, you expect to make $1.2 or more, since the average odd is likely to be greater than 130.
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Old 06-28-08, 05:31 AM   #12
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The problem is that the bulk of the 44% winning dogs are less than +130. As Peep pointed out above, all dogs of +130 or better win about 38% of the time, which is a losing proposition if bet blindly.
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Old 06-28-08, 01:27 PM   #13
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ill take the +200's at 30% for the shortrun... baseball these days are seeing more teams play better. If the Rangers played the Red Sox at fenway and the line was at +210 for the rangers, ide take the shot on it.
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Old 06-28-08, 04:02 PM   #14
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they always hit when you didn't bet them and rarely when you do
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