[mofome]

I say definitely. No way Livan holds the yanks under 4 runs.

Yanks roster vs Livan:
166 AB
.325 BA
.406 OBP
.991 OPS
9 HR
12 2B
Arod 1.974 OPS off Livan

[The HG]

Nice one, good eye, a great example of handicapping correlation in MLB.

[The HG]

Now here's the question, and this could result in the first-ever thread being moved from the toddlers' asylum to the handicappers' think tank - but the question is, when you see something like this, is it better to bet the team total (yanks over) or a parlay of the two supposedly correlated sides (minn and the over)?

[mofome]

Originally Posted by The HG

Now here's the question, and this could result in the first-ever thread being moved from the toddlers' asylum to the handicappers' think tank - but the question is, when you see something like this, is it better to bet the team total (yanks over) or a parlay of the two supposedly correlated sides (minn and the over)?

we'll get better replies to this in the think tank. slink time. I was thinking of just playing the tt over, but i ended up taking the over and minn individually rather than the tt or par. lets figure out what i should have done.

[Data]

Originally Posted by The HG

Now here's the question, and this could result in the first-ever thread being moved from the toddlers' asylum to the handicappers' think tank - but the question is, when you see something like this, is it better to bet the team total (yanks over) or a parlay of the two supposedly correlated sides (minn and the over)?

For starters, we would need to establish that this indeed is a "handicapping correlation" (it is something of value, right?) and not a "handicapping fallacy".

I am very new to MLB, so forgive my ignorance, but this seems to be just a result of a "noise" that handicappers tend to love so much.

[Arilou]

There are games with a real correlation of this type, because of uncertainty. When an established pitcher faces another pitcher that is making his first start, or coming back from an injury, most people will more or less agree about the established pitcher but have different valuations for the new one. Thus, those who like the new guy will tend to like the under, and those who like the established pitcher's side will take the over.

Then of course there's the whole over-away and home-under correlation, which can give you a little extra push. One interesting tactic I've pulled a few times is that you can bet both side and total in order to 'cancel out' half of your bet: In the example above, betting Yankees and Over is a bet against Livan, and you don't have to care too much about what the Twins do.