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05-25-2008, 02:08 AM
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#1 (permalink) |
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SBR Posting Legend
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 10,937
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how would you hedge this spurs series if you have no opnion
i got 2k on spurs to win the series at +330 before game 2...i did it because i was doing some other hedge. so game 2 is over, lakers won. now i have this 2k pending wager for spurs to win the series.
the current series odds is: 05:35 PM 601 Spurs +500 602 Lakers -700 since i actually feel that lakers will win the series, so i feel that i am holding a losing ticket. right now i can hedge it with lakers -700, but that is going to lock up majority of my bankroll for the series...that is a long ass time. or i can ride it out and wait til an elimination game to make the hedge, but if lakers win game 3, lakers series odds will be close to -1000. or should i just keep betting couple of hundred dollars on lakers ML for the two away games at plus money? what would you do when you're holding a 2k spurs series future?
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money My Spreadsheet |
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05-25-2008, 02:40 AM
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#2 (permalink) |
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VIP Moderator
Join Date: 08-02-07
Posts: 18,643
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I would maybe wait one more game, let the Spurs take this first one at home and then hedge out with the Lakers.
Either way, I don't think is going 7 games.
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05-25-2008, 02:51 AM
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#3 (permalink) |
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SBR MVP
Join Date: 02-24-08
Location: Yanks
Posts: 3,490
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Well, thats a tough call because if you play lake show ml and they lose, you are now down more money and still down in the series 2-1... If you do win...now lakers will be up 3-0 and you will have to hedge with them for the next couple of game...and if they lose(hypothectical) 2-3 games in a row you are now down more as well...its up to you...I would just take the safe route and not only hedge, but put a little more on the lakers -700 to try to lock in some profit. Yes it does suck to lock up your BR for that long but thats what you have to do when you get in these kind of situations...
just my 2 cents...do what you will  |
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05-25-2008, 03:02 AM
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#4 (permalink) |
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SBR Posting Legend
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 10,937
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the 2k futures bet is already all profit from the last hedge. just trying to squeeze more money out of it. the problem with taking -700 is that it will lock up my bankroll for too long. that is why i am thinking about risking 500 on the lakers ml every game until spurs get eliminated.
i think that is the best way to go. lakers plus money for the next two games.
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money My Spreadsheet |
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05-25-2008, 03:04 AM
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#5 (permalink) |
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SBR Posting Legend
Join Date: 04-05-07
Location: the moon
Posts: 10,937
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the problem with that is that the lakers will be favorite for game 5,7 with at least -300 odds.
__________________
"But you can't have your dream without laying something on the line. The key is not to risk what you can't afford to lose. You might think you're different, but someday you gonna want more too. The quesiton is what are you willing to lay on the line." 钱 錢 argent Geld soldi お金 돈 dinheiro деньги dinero เงิน כסף, ממון raha λεφτά pengar danh từ money My Spreadsheet |
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05-25-2008, 12:40 PM
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#6 (permalink) |
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SBR Wise Guy
Join Date: 11-27-07
Location: U.S.S. Enterprise NCC-1701-E
Posts: 948
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Use this Ganchrow's spreadsheet:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/attachment...d=12062 79457, |
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