[cahut13]

first time poster here

For soccer, there are lines for the both the teams to win and a draw, if the draw is removed and a tie pushes the other bets, what is the advantage that the bettor has over a book?

for ex. in an upcoming german league game the line is as follows:
Eintracht Frankfurt +135
VfL Wolfsburg +175
Draw +220

So if the draw is removed and the other bets are graded as wagers, what advantage am I looking at here?

[picoman]

look into asian handicap. pk pushes.

difference is 3-way, 2 way

[cahut13]

so if this were to be a nfl game and the line looked like this
Bears +135
Vikings +175

What kind of advantage is that, for some reason I cant figure out how to do the math (never was the best at it) to get me where I want to get

[picoman]

Originally Posted by cahut13

What kind of advantage is that, for some reason I cant figure out how to do the math (never was the best at it) to get me where I want to get

Eintracht Frankfurt +135
VfL Wolfsburg +175
Draw +220

let me do couple of asian handicap conversions for you

eintracht +0.5 will have odds of -282 (you win on draw and win)

wolfsburg +0.5 will have odds of -209


if you want to do pk, that is a little more tricky to calulate

[cahut13]

ha, sorry i didnt know what asian handicapping meant, but I see now. So essentially to break even I have to hit somewhere around 30ish percent? IF betting the "favorite" at +135 when true odds should be -282?

[picoman]

ok here it is

eintracht pk is -162
wolfsburg pk is -112

pk means you get your money back on draw

so i pretty much coverted 1x2 odds to 2 way asian handicap. as you can see, the odds you're getting is atrocious. that is 70 cents vig. if you want to bet soccer, you have to line shop.

[picoman]

there is also quarter asian handicap (not sure about the exact term)

for example, eintracht +0.5/pk , which means if you wager 100 dollars, 50 will be on eintracht +0.5 and 50 will be on eintracht pk.

on the other hand you'll often see eintracht -0.5/pk


for some heavy favorites you might see something like Man U -1.5/-1


same goes for the toal

[picoman]

Originally Posted by cahut13

ha, sorry i didnt know what asian handicapping meant, but I see now. So essentially to break even I have to hit somewhere around 30ish percent? IF betting the "favorite" at +135 when true odds should be -282?

when you take eintracht at +135, it is same as asian handicap of eintracht -0.5. +135 is not really favorite.

if you see eintracht -0.5 at -150....that is a favorite.

[picoman]

cahut, i am glad you started this thread. because it is not that straight forward to convert 3 way to different asian handicap lines. i asked ganch to create a tool for the sbrlines, but he told me that no one give a damn about soccer. so i went ahead and created couple of solver functions in excel. the concept is pretty easy, and if you're famailar with the excel solver it only takes 2 second to convert. but if you never done it, it is pretty hard (sometimes confusing when the game is about to start) to do even with a graphing calculator.

soccer is fun to bet because it is on 24/7.

[cahut13]

I really appreciate your help and I have learned a lot more about betting on soccer, but my original question wasnt completely answered I will rephrase it:what would my advantage be over a book if they offered me lines of
+135 and +175 it doesn't necesarily have to be in soccer, but in any sport
so If I found a book that offered me
Yankees +135
Boston +175
and I could only bet on one side, what percentage would I have to hit to stay even? is it something like 43 percent? I am having an argument with a friend

[cahut13]

Originally Posted by picoman

cahut, i am glad you started this thread. because it is not that straight forward to convert 3 way to different asian handicap lines. i asked ganch to create a tool for the sbrlines, but he told me that no one give a damn about soccer. so i went ahead and created couple of solver functions in excel. the concept is pretty easy, and if you're famailar with the excel solver it only takes 2 second to convert. but if you never done it, it is pretty hard (sometimes confusing when the game is about to start) to do even with a graphing calculator.

soccer is fun to bet because it is on 24/7.

so your program converts the 3 way money lines into 2 way lines, so does it disburse the draw money evenly? or how does it consistently come up with spread lines, seems tough to do

[cahut13]

Ya and completely OT but I have been betting on soccer more lately and I am really new to it, but having a tool that could tell me that I am getting a fair price on spread lines could be really helpful

[picoman]

Originally Posted by cahut13

I really appreciate your help and I have learned a lot more about betting on soccer, but my original question wasnt completely answered I will rephrase it:what would my advantage be over a book if they offered me lines of
+135 and +175 it doesn't necesarily have to be in soccer, but in any sport
so If I found a book that offered me
Yankees +135
Boston +175
and I could only bet on one side, what percentage would I have to hit to stay even? is it something like 43 percent? I am having an argument with a friend

no book will offer this line. if you bet one million dollar on yankees and one million on boston, how can you lose?

with 3 way betting, you don't really know what is the win% for each outcome, and you can't say team 1 win is 33%, team 2 win is 33%, and draw is 33%. every game is different.

[picoman]

Originally Posted by cahut13

Ya and completely OT but I have been betting on soccer more lately and I am really new to it, but having a tool that could tell me that I am getting a fair price on spread lines could be really helpful

one thing i can tell you, the lines you're getting is crap. find a different book if you want to bet soccer long term.

[turnip]

Originally Posted by picoman

one thing i can tell you, the lines you're getting is crap. find a different book if you want to bet soccer long term.

This is true, these lines are tight (this looks like bodog though, not as bad as the CRIS family)

If you're an american and want really good lines, you have to settle for 5dimes as far as I know.

Looking at this game, the odds at 5dimes are:

Eintracht Frankfurt +135
Draw +231
VfL Wolfsburg +206


Unfortunately the limits are $500 at 5dimes I believe, and will likely be cut further if you win.

Hopefully you aren't living in the US, in which case you have several more options, including Pinnacle, who offers higher limits and even better lines than 5dimes.

[turnip]

Since you are using examples like:

"Yankees +135
Boston +175"

Let me clear this up..just in case both me and picoman are erroneously assuming you already know this:

Your 1x2 bets on Eintracht Frankfurt and Wolfsburg don't get canceled if the game ends in a draw. You would lose both bets.

[cahut13]

Originally Posted by turnip

Since you are using examples like:

"Yankees +135
Boston +175"

Let me clear this up..just in case both me and picoman are erroneously assuming you already know this:

Your 1x2 bets on Eintracht Frankfurt and Wolfsburg don't get canceled if the game ends in a draw. You would lose both bets.

Yes I know that I wont get paid for a draw, but What I am asking is completely hypothetical. IF there was a book that offered:
"Yankees +135
Boston +175"
BUT only allowed you to bet on one side, what would the player have to hit to stay even? Me and my friend had an argument about it and we both suck at math so try and help me out. I thought it was around 43 percent, he says it is less. Who is right?

[cahut13]

Originally Posted by turnip

This is true, these lines are tight (this looks like bodog though, not as bad as the CRIS family)



Unfortunately the limits are $500 at 5dimes I believe, and will likely be cut further if you win.

Hopefully you aren't living in the US, in which case you have several more options, including Pinnacle, who offers higher limits and even better lines than 5dimes.

Yes the lines I got were bodog lines, it is good to know there are better soccer books out there, too bad i'm in the US so i am limited, and unless I went on some crazy run I dont think the 500 dollar limit should be a problem