View New Posts
  1. #1

    Default question for justin7 regarding correlated parlays

    In your book you write that the minimum spread to total ratio for a parlay to be profitable is 2.7. What would be the number for a half time line? What about 2h?

  2. #2

    Default

    Sorry, Poogs. You'll have to figure that out yourself

  3. #3
    mminkovski's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-22-07
    Posts: 924
    SBR Points: 1369
    Message Me

    Default

    Poogs, you can do some backtesting for NCAAF. It's not a hard task, just need a good database
    15,000

    NCAA BRACKETS 1st4/2/2012


  4. #4

    Default

    The reason for Justin's response is in page 201 of his book.

    CHARITY DONOR
    11/27/2011 $25 donation


  5. #5

    Default

    Hey guys, quick question. Is it possible to win long term betting 2 and 3 leg parlays? During NCAAB, I usually only bet 1st and 2nd halves, parlaying totals and spreads(correlated) for the same game. Last season, I placed 325 2 leg parlays, hitting 31%, my 3 leg parlays were about 12%. I'm trying to learn, and I'm getting better at the math behind it, but a "sharp" told me that I'm throwing away money(eventhough I was up at the end of the year), saying I would've made more doing straight bets. He didn't really elaborate on his reasoning.

    I really don't use Kelly or any other methods to determine my bet amount, I usually for my 2 team parlays bet 2% of my bankroll. Anything thoughts/suggestions on how to "reorganize" my parlay bets into straight bets to make more profit.

    Thanks, sorry if my post is sorta confusing.

  6. #6

    Default

    if the bets are correlated, you should be parlaying them

  7. #7

Top