[ktorp18]

Are there certain situations where betting against the favorite to win by one run can be valuable?

Example:

rays -1.5 (+140)
blue jays ML (+140)

Is there any value in betting like this? If you go with games where the totals are higher and both sides are at least +130, could this work out? Does anyone have any information on betting both sides in baseball? Basically betting against the ML favorite winning by one run. Any help would be appreciated, thanks.

[20Four7]

I only bet both sides if I get an arb. Or if I feel the line will keep moving such as the jays/rays game yesterday. Bet the jays at +110 then got the rays later at +100.

I've never done this one run thing but I think it was discussed somewhere last year around this time.

[ktorp18]

Thanks for your comments. I'll search and see if I can find some old threads about it.

[Hoja Verdes]

I used this 'system' during the 2006 season and it did not work out well for me. It started out very well, but ended badly. My problem at the time was that I was using a book with 20 cent lines, so I was not getting enough good numbers to make the 'system' work mathematically. I would go on a decent run, but after a couple 1-run losses in a row, I decided to double my unit size. Bad idea. Had another bad run and busted half my bankroll. I got nervous about losing my entire bankroll at that point and went back to normal betting.

I kept VERY detailed charts on each team and each play, and there were certain teams that year (LAD for instance) that seemed to have games with large run differentials. My advice would be that the ONLY way you can make it work is using Matchbook almost exclusively, maybe in connection with a couple other locals or offshores that have 10 cent lines and are a little slow moving their lines. But there is ALWAYS a bit of luck to making this system profitable.

Truth be told, I'd give it another try maybe, but luckily I don't have to anymore as I've learned that betting baseball the 'normal' way is much more profitable for me with a lot less risk.

[donjuan]

Basically if you make 2 -EV bets, they aren't going to turn into a +EV proposition unless you parlay them AND they are correlated enough. If you can identify one of these bets as having +EV, then you should usually just bet the line that has value.

[ktorp18]

hoja verdes - what were details of the system when you tried it out? did you use totals as a factor? what were the average odds of the games you played both sides on? thanks for the comments guys.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Doesnt really work out in the long run...if you are getting +140 for each side you would have to win 3 to 1 just to be up .2 units.(considering you went 1-1 on those 3).

[ktorp18]

actually you have to win 6 to 1. if it was 3 to 1 i would have already started using the system :lol:. games are won by 1 run about 25% of the time. take away half of that by also betting on the ML dog so now you're down to 12.5% of the time. then take 25% of that too because the favorite will win by 1 25% of the time and you're left with about 3-4% of games being won by the favorite winning by one run. those numbers can't be right, someone show me where i messed up. but anyways if i also add in other factors, such as totals, i think a system could be made from this. i'll just keep tracking it for now.

[beetman]

You need to look at historical data to see how often the home team or road team wins by 1 run given certain moneylines and certain totals, then bet accordingly. Without looking at historical data you're just making guesses.

[ktorp18]

beetman - are there any websites that have such historical information to observe?

[Arnold]

No need to track this. It doesn't work. Same goes for NHL -1.5 lines.

[diogee]

I agree with Arnold. With the +140 odds if you were laying $100 on each side a win would only net you $40 while a favorite winning by 1 run will cost you $200. So at those odds it would take 5 wins to cancel out 1 loss.

[ChuteBoxe]

It will have its runs, and then it will have brutal days. Unless you have a huge roll, can pick at least 65%+, and you just out and out get lucky, you will get hammered. A guy I once knew tried this. To make a long story short, he wound up with two broken legs, and having to move. Soo, in my opinion, If you're into to stuff like this, build a good bankroll, and learn how to efficiently arb. Also, there's much better options in trying to make money on baseball. You could always spend your extra time researching, and banging out winners all day.

[ktorp18]

Originally Posted by diogee

I agree with Arnold. With the +140 odds if you were laying $100 on each side a win would only net you $40 while a favorite winning by 1 run will cost you $200. So at those odds it would take 5 wins to cancel out 1 loss.

so i guess the next step would be finding out how often the favorite wins by 1 run. i've seen numbers where the home team wins by 1 run 17% of the time and the away team wins by 1 run 11% of the time, though i haven't seen these numbers verified. if anyone has a historical odds data website they could send my way it would be a big help, thanks.

[Arnold]

Originally Posted by ktorp18

so i guess the next step would be finding out how often the favorite wins by 1 run. i've seen numbers where the home team wins by 1 run 17% of the time and the away team wins by 1 run 11% of the time, though i haven't seen these numbers verified. if anyone has a historical odds data website they could send my way it would be a big help, thanks.

If you want to blindly bet this, you will lose big. Don't waste your time.

OK, this will be my last attempt to get the point across. Everyone is free to burn their money.

[ktorp18]

Originally Posted by Arnold

If you want to blindly bet this, you will lose big. Don't waste your time.

OK, this will be my last attempt to get the point across. Everyone is free to burn their money.

Do you have any numbers for this system?

[Arnold]

I threw, the paper where I wrote it down, out. The numbers were negative. You'd do better picking underdogs blindly.

[ktorp18]

Originally Posted by Arnold

I threw, the paper where I wrote it down, out. The numbers were negative. You'd do better picking underdogs blindly.

what kind of restrictions did you have in place as far as which games you would pick?

[Arnold]

I tried limiting the odds of the underdog, say, all underdogs of +120 and above, +130 and above, etc; nothing worked.

[ktorp18]

word. thanks for the info.

[beetman]

Covers.com has historic line data. I'm not sure how anyone can say this can or cannot work when you have no idea what sort of lines the guy is going to be able to get. With line shopping I'm certain there exist opportunities where you can take one team -1.5 and one team on the ML and profit in the long run.

[Arnold]

Line shopping won't help if your win% isn't high enough.

[ktorp18]

beetman - are you talking about the odds tracker on covers? i was looking for a free one if there is one available. i agree there probably is a way to make this work, i just need to find the right restrictions.

[69882000]

Eventually your book will catch wind of it and give you das boot. So while it may be profitable for some - It can get you into trouble with your book. They don't want you to profit.

[ktorp18]

Originally Posted by 69882000

Eventually your book will catch wind of it and give you das boot. So while it may be profitable for some - It can get you into trouble with your book. They don't want you to profit.

yeah that's the other thing i had in the back of my mind. good point.

[ktorp18]

i think i cracked the code for this system....and for the book catching what im doing...i can just use 2 different books, but i ran the numbers and this looks like it could be very lucrative

[AgainstAllOdds]

come to think of it...you might have a chance with this system...sometimes you can find props where the favorite is getting +1.5 runs or something like that.

but the best advice is to stay away all together

[BuddyBear]

EVERYONE who has ever bet baseball has considered this at one point or another. It seems like such an easy thing, b/c it will cash as long as the favorite does not win by 1. Unfortunately the favorite wins by 1 enough times to make this a long-term negative bet. See Don Juan's post for the explanation.

But more importantly, any sort of "system" has been considered especially one this simple. It's a tough business fellows.....no free money out there.

[Munson15]

The odds are against this type of system working long term. Even with +140 both ways, you need 5 wins to every loss to break even. Any bad run at all will kill you. I don't believe it would even work if you looked at only games with high totals, either. GL.

[ktorp18]

i figured out a way for this to work, but i don't have the funds to start using it right now, so i'll just keep tracking it for now. thanks for everyone's help.

[BuddyBear]

Originally Posted by ktorp18

i figured out a way for this to work, but i don't have the funds to start using it right now, so i'll just keep tracking it for now. thanks for everyone's help.

can you tell us ktorp? Thanks!

[Arnold]

Originally Posted by BuddyBear

can you tell us ktorp? Thanks!

Chances are he went a week back or so and got good results.

[ktorp18]

Originally Posted by Arnold

Chances are he went a week back or so and got good results.

That's quite an assumption.

[trixtrix]

i wonder what the correlation factor is between folks who routinely come up these genius ways of profiting against long-standing -ev subsets and the fact that they rarely have the bankroll to bet them..

[ktorp18]

Originally Posted by trixtrix

i wonder what the correlation factor is between folks who routinely come up these genius ways of profiting against long-standing -ev subsets and the fact that they rarely have the bankroll to bet them..

probably pretty good, most systems have a need for a large starting bankroll.