[donjuan]

probably pretty good, most systems have a need for a large starting bankroll.

Nice level.

[xyz]

The juice for baseball on Matchbook is usually 1 cent. For example, you will find the favorite -110 and the dog +109. If this idea has any merits at all, Matchbook will give you the best chance at it. If it really doesn't work, then you have also found a winning system. Because then you can flip around and bet favorite moneyline and dog +1.5 runs. In that case, you hope for the favorite to win by 1 run, otherwise you lose part of your bet on every play. So I believe there are three outcomes from this experiment:

1. The idea works, +EV with statistical significance
2. The idea doesn't work, -EV with statistical significance
3. You mostly break even, and gradually reduce the bankroll from the 1% commission that Matchbook charges on wins.

If either 1 or 2 happens, then you found an idea that works. I have no idea which outcome is more likely. Anyone would venture a guess? Thanks for your insight.

[RickySteve]

3.

[Mr KLC]

Using this system for the last 15 days, with games that started with point lines of 9 and 9.5, I came up with the following stats:

(59 games total)

Underdog won 30 times
Favorite -1 1/2 won 25 times
Favorite won by 1 run 4 times

That's 55 out of 59 contests that a profit was made. Two of the losses were yesterday. The blue Jays are continuing the trend today right now as we speak.

[Mr KLC]

Using this system for the last 15 days, with games that started with point lines of 9 and 9.5, I came up with the following stats:

(59 games total)

Underdog won 30 times
Favorite -1 1/2 won 25 times
Favorite won by 1 run 4 times

That's 55 out of 59 contests that a profit was made. Two of the losses were yesterday. The blue Jays are continuing the trend today right now as we speak.

Results from games that met that criteria today:

Cardinals/Mets - Underdog Won
Astros/Brewers - Favorite by -1 1/2
Yankees/Red Sox - Underdog Won
Angels/Orioles - Favorite by - 1 1/2
White Sox/Tigers - Underdog Won
Mariners/Blue Jays - Favorite by -1 1/2
Braves/Phillies - Favorite by 1

They went 6-1 today. The good thing is that I didn't play the Phillies/Braves game because the Phillies - 1 1/2 was at (-120) so I skipped it because I would have lost money if the Phillies had cleared it. 6-0 with a bankroll that went up 22.28% today. Yes, it was a very good day.

[xyz]

In this system, you lose both bets when the favorite wins by 1. So for each loss, you lose 2 units. On the 55 wins, what fractions of a unit do you win per win on average? We must do this kind of accounting to see how profitable it is.

Using this system for the last 15 days, with games that started with point lines of 9 and 9.5, I came up with the following stats:

(59 games total)

Underdog won 30 times
Favorite -1 1/2 won 25 times
Favorite won by 1 run 4 times

That's 55 out of 59 contests that a profit was made. Two of the losses were yesterday. The blue Jays are continuing the trend today right now as we speak.

[smitch124]

There are some teams though, that tend to win and lose by one run more than others....D'Backs last year and the Angels this year.

And though I'd have to check, I would think that some of the high score high yield teams would have less one run games Texas Detroit etc. My concern would be that the lines would certainly reflect those tendancies.

I think if you choose your spots you might have success, but the same can be said for straight sides and totals...

[dunk]

some times it the only way to go. my team dont have t win for me to win my bets

[TheGambler]

Someone posted that 17% of favorites win by exactly one run. If this is the case, then if you can get +140 on the ML underdog and +140 on the favorite run line -1.5, then you would make money in the long run. If i'm calculating it correctly, 1 out of every 5.88 games results in the favorite winning by one run. With these prices at matchook, you would win about $230 every 6 games and lose $200 every 6 games.

I am not a math wizard but someone please help me out on this one b/c I know this can't be true. I believe the 17% came from Arnold on another posting in the Think Tank. That is the only piece of info I do not know for sure.

Just for the record, there have been several games in the last week that offered these odds. I played one last week at +145 and +143.

[smitch124]

The one thing I would say about that is the books will give you better run line odds on a game thats more likely to be a 1 run game (like one with a 6.5 total). So for the games you are getting +140 on both sides there may be a higher occurance of 1 run wins by the favorites.

I have not looked into this but might be something to keep an eye out for....

[TheGambler]

that's a good point but i went back and looked and it was the philly/florida game on august 5th. the over/under was 9.5

[xyz]

As smitch124 pointed out, you need to make sure that the 17% of favorites win by exactly one run is applicable to the case when the odds are +140 on the ML underdog and +140 on the favorite run line -1.5. The 17% number you quoted is for all odds. It may be the case that it is higher than 17% for some odds and lower than 17% for other odds.

Someone posted that 17% of favorites win by exactly one run. If this is the case, then if you can get +140 on the ML underdog and +140 on the favorite run line -1.5, then you would make money in the long run. If i'm calculating it correctly, 1 out of every 5.88 games results in the favorite winning by one run. With these prices at matchook, you would win about $230 every 6 games and lose $200 every 6 games.

I am not a math wizard but someone please help me out on this one b/c I know this can't be true. I believe the 17% came from Arnold on another posting in the Think Tank. That is the only piece of info I do not know for sure.

Just for the record, there have been several games in the last week that offered these odds. I played one last week at +145 and +143.