Help--Middling opportunity???

BuddyBear · 09-02-2005, 06:40 PM

I need some quick advice.

I got Arizona +7.5 (-105) at SIA and now Pinnacle is running UTAH -7 (+100).

Should I middle this game at all or stick with my original bet.

Thanks

Brick Tamland · 09-02-2005, 06:42 PM

Stick with it. Unless your middle is real time you are giving away value when the line moves in your directin.

Mudcat · 09-02-2005, 06:46 PM

With this middle, you would have to get the push 1 time in 40 to break even. I don't have any statistics on that in front of me but I feel very confident a push would occur more often than that in this situation.

IMO, a good middle.

BuddyBear · 09-02-2005, 06:47 PM

It's at UTAH -7 (-103) right now...is it stil a good bet

Illusion · 09-02-2005, 06:48 PM

Mud is right Buddy, I would take the middle.

Mudcat · 09-02-2005, 06:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BuddyBear

It's at UTAH -7 (-103) right now...is it stil a good bet

You now need 1 out of 25 to break even. I suspect pushing on spreads of 7 occurs more often than that but it's getting touchier.

Brick Tamland · 09-02-2005, 06:53 PM

Nope. dont take it! Yeah its a profitable middle but you have the good number. No reason to play a

ty number. You can not win trying to forcast moves like that so you just end up pissing away your value. If you bought them both in real time that would be different.

What you are saying is that you should try to middle games when you have a good number and only play straight up when you have vanilla or bad lines.

You guys get what i am sayin? Probability of the beatch hitn dont mean shizit here.

Mudcat · 09-02-2005, 07:23 PM

It was an odd situation which you were describing and Brick was right.

Normally, people middle in real time using much larger dollar amounts than their standard betting unit. So if your first bet on Arizona was a standard unit bet - and then you grabbed that middle - that sets you up to win a standard unit (less the juice) if you push.

If anything else happens you lose a 25th of a unit (or a 40th depending on when you grabbed it).

So if everything goes according to probablilty, you might make a unit of profit for every 20 bets you place like that. That's some serious, low $$$ grinding.

BuddyBear · 09-02-2005, 08:05 PM

I missed out on it...just as i was doing some research on it, the pizza delivery girl came and i had to get the door and then do other things.

Anyway, I have Arizona +7.5. So let's just hope it lands at 6 and under!

BuddyBear · 09-02-2005, 10:51 PM

Alls well that ends well

Senator7 · 09-02-2005, 10:53 PM

Not really, I had Utah -6.5!

Senator 7

jjgold · 09-03-2005, 09:34 AM

Middles are not profitable much anymore and you will lose long term

Bill Dozer · 09-03-2005, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjgold

Middles are not profitable much anymore and you will lose long term

Unless you are overpaying or getting caught on one side, this statement is false.

why · 09-03-2005, 12:22 PM

Not a big enough middle for me to take, and you may always get something better at the half and you will have a better feel for the game.

As it turns out taking the middle was not right and usually is not with something that small.

Mudcat · 09-03-2005, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjgold

Middles are not profitable much anymore and you will lose long term

That's just an absurd and false generalization. It's the same as saying that betting on pointspreads is not profitable and you will lose long term.

It's true if you don't know what you're doing but if you've got skillz, you make money.