[BigOrangeTitans]

During the conference tourneys I found that of favorites of 3.5+ points that sided with the public hit ATS under 50%. Upon a further look i found that of the faves that had 65% or more of the public with a line change of only .5 points higher than the opening line or less(i.e fave opens at 3.5 and only rises to 4points) lost ATS 80%+.

If the line moved in favor of the favorite and the public was at least 70% on the side of the favorite, it lost ATS everytime but once(Texas/Oklahoma). I saw alot of folks getting buried by NCAAB on thursday and did some digging. This is the reason why. They were all betting on the faves. So what does this tell us as we move closer to the real tournament?

[regularguy]

Hey BOT. Thanks for sharing these observations.

I have been interested, as well, in the games where the public is heavily on a big favorite and the line appears to move the wrong way. (The day we discussed this, I happened to be going the other way, but I was aware of it, and tend not to do so (and I lost).)

Anyway, there is an unusually large number of such games on the board right now. I think the first round of the NCAA tournament lends itself to this, with the big-name faves going up against lesser-known dogs.

Here are the games on the board now (NIT, CBI, and NCAA) that I have found that show this sort of line movement.

Some of them might interest me (CS Fullerton, Nova, MD Baltimore, Texas Arlington, Austin Peay). Others, I can't do (no way I bet on Oral Roberts against Pitt with less than double digits).

Anyway, here they are. Let's see what happens.


Dayton (v. Cleveland State), 69% on Dayton,
line has moved from -8 to -7.5

Wisconsin (v. CS Fullerton), 64% on Wisconsin,
line has moved from -13.5 to -11 (!)

Pitt (v. Oral Roberts), 77% on Pitt,
line has moved from -10 to -9

Clemson (v. Villanova), 68% on Clemson,
line has moved from -6.5 to -6

Drake (v. Western Kentucky), 73% on Drake,
line has moved from -5 to -4

Georgetown (v. MD Baltimore), 64% on Georgetown,
line has moved from -19 to -16

Memphis (v. Texas Arlington), 80% on Memphis,
line has moved from -25 to -24.5

Texas (Austin Peay), 76% on Texas,
line has moved from -16.5 to -16

Butler (v. S. Alabama), 70% on Butler,
line has moved from -4.5 to -4


By the way, I used thespread.com to find the games I listed. I have found that different sources give different information about what the opening line was. SBRlines and thespread.com, for example, will give somewhat different opening numbers sometimes. So, in case it matters, I wanted to note where I got these.

[Arnold]

Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans

During the conference tourneys I found that of favorites of 3.5+ points that sided with the public hit ATS under 50%. Upon a further look i found that of the faves that had 65% or more of the public with a line change of only .5 points higher than the opening line or less(i.e fave opens at 3.5 and only rises to 4points) lost ATS 80%+.

If the line moved in favor of the favorite and the public was at least 70% on the side of the favorite, it lost ATS everytime but once(Texas/Oklahoma). I saw alot of folks getting buried by NCAAB on thursday and did some digging. This is the reason why. They were all betting on the faves. So what does this tell us as we move closer to the real tournament?

What was your sample size?

[BigOrangeTitans]

Originally Posted by Arnold

What was your sample size?

Every conference tourney game this year, originally.
I digged deeper. This is hitting at 65%+ over the past 4 march tournament games, conference and the dance both.

[Arnold]

Sorry, I don't follow NCAA. How many games is that over the last 4 years? Did you check the years before?

[BigOrangeTitans]

Regularguy,

The number moving is always due to money. Lines drop to attract attention to the favorite bettor. Lines raise to attract to the dog bettor. So if the lines move in favor of the side that is heavily favored it is due to money. Although they are 80% faves, it does not mean they are 80% of the money. You are not supposed to be able to have that knowledge of where the most money is, but if you see a 80% fave with the line DROPPING, you know the money is on the other side(known as the sharp side). Being as Joe public is a chronic loser, and joe sharp is not, thats the side you want to be on, for the most part.

The best way to follow this trend is wait until about 30 mins before tip, when the dog money should come in. If it still comes out at 65%+ and with little to no line movement, it is a trend play.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Originally Posted by Arnold

Sorry, I don't follow NCAA. How many games is that over the last 4 years? Did you check the years before?

Only went back four years. Thats about 500 games.

[BigOrangeTitans]

I could not get the public numbers of anything before 4 years, thus why its only at a 4 year sample.

[Arnold]

500 games is quite good. So is it an 80% angle? That's very impressive.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Originally Posted by Arnold

500 games is quite good. So is it an 80% angle? That's very impressive.

80 is what it hits at this year.
65% over the past 4 seasons.
This does not include the mid major conference tournaments.

[diogee]

Wow very nice digging BOT.

[WestsidePete]

Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans

80 is what it hits at this year.
65% over the past 4 seasons.
This does not include the mid major conference tournaments.

This trend will be key for us to do well and to follow it....

[regularguy]

Originally Posted by BigOrangeTitans

Regularguy,

The number moving is always due to money. Lines drop to attract attention to the favorite bettor. Lines raise to attract to the dog bettor. So if the lines move in favor of the side that is heavily favored it is due to money. Although they are 80% faves, it does not mean they are 80% of the money. You are not supposed to be able to have that knowledge of where the most money is, but if you see a 80% fave with the line DROPPING, you know the money is on the other side(known as the sharp side). Being as Joe public is a chronic loser, and joe sharp is not, thats the side you want to be on, for the most part.

The best way to follow this trend is wait until about 30 mins before tip, when the dog money should come in. If it still comes out at 65%+ and with little to no line movement, it is a trend play.

Hey BOT. I agree with everything you say here.

I just wanted to identify the games that look like they might fit the trend. The ones I identified, I think, are the ones to check out shortly before tip. By finding the likely candidates now, it allows us to chew on them a bit over the next few days.

[BigOrangeTitans]

Originally Posted by WestsidePete