[JayTrotter]

If you could consistently and frequently make high EV plays, and make good profit most seasons, would you really sell picks??

[JustinBieber]

Of course you wouldn't, however if you were picking 50%~ and had a team of people who did the same would you create a tout service?

[Flying Dutchman]

These best touts these days might do 55%, but you'll pay a lot for the best. I believe DrBob has a long term College FB record of around 56%, but has fallen off over the last several years. RAS seems good, but has had bad years and stretches too. Now the line is jerking in response to his releases.

Frankly, if you are good at math and can program, you have a shot at being your own handicapper, so why not save your money and do that? You'll probably lose money faster with a tout since you pay those clowns up front.

[Edward-RAS]

If you could consistently and frequently make high EV plays, and make good profit most seasons, would you really sell picks??

This is a valid question.

I certainly would not advise anyone with a true edge to go the route of starting a new business to sell picks, but it could make sense for an already well established business to continuing selling high +EV picks.

[JustinBieber]

Touters gonna tout

[That Foreign Guy]

A lot of the picks I find are in very small markets (I had one recently where I was limited to an £8 bet - yes it was at 10-1 but still hardly retirement money) and I am very fussy about the lines I take. My options for getting more money out of this pick are as follows:

Get people I trust to open accounts for me and place bets - administratively a hassle and several extra sources of risk (people not being trustworthy, book closing accounts and possibly confiscating balances).

Sell my picks - I get a regular source of income that smooths out a lot of variance and adds to my returns. Yes I have to learn about marketing etc but that's actually a plus for me.

Actually there is a third option that I have taken - I don't actually sell my picks but I give them away to a few friends in return for help on what they know, whether that's programming, Eastern European soccer, or being a good guy who always gets the first round in. I'd sort of like to sell picks in future though because I like money and marketing is a different intellectual challenge to handicapping.

[MadTiger]

Touters gonna tout

Well-played.

Matt 7:16 "You will know them by their fruits. Grapes are not gathered from thorn bushes nor figs from thistles, are they?"

[Sawyer]

If you could consistently and frequently make high EV plays, and make good profit most seasons, would you really sell picks??

Of course. Extra cash won't hurt. If you're really good, then you can sell your picks to maximize your profit. In addition, you can build your betting bankroll faster.

Let's say you bet 200$ per game. You place 100 bets per month and your winning percentage is %55, odds are EVEN, +100. You risk 200 on each game.

55 x 2.00 x 200 = +2000$

Your profit is 2000$.

If you sell your picks 200$/Month per client, you will make an extra +2000$ if you have 10 clients.

2000 or 4000? Who doesn't like extra money? LoL! If you have 30 clients, it makes +6000$!

However, Good handicappers went cold (usually) after going tout. Pittviper for example. In addition, Touts are famous with looong losing streaks. Baseball Prophet was a legend just few weeks ago, then he went 0-10.

Call it bad karma or psychological pressure. Maybe lack of quality because of pressure. You have to produce picks in order to earn money. Your picks won't be the same under these circumstances..

However, there's a solution for this. If you have a mechanical system, your picks won't be effected by your emotions since your system will choose the plays. Sports betting is a tough job, you gotta stay emotionless all the time. Many cappers feel stressful/embarrassed when on a losing streak and they go even more deeper..because they're losing their control and self-confidence..

Of course, selling plays is not the only option. You can work for a betting syndicate as well. If they pay you 300$ for per unit won, (risking 1 unit per game) you can make +3000$ in a month if you can make +10 units. Even +5 units profit won't hurt, it makes +1500$. Add your profit from your wagers as well and voila!

[Wrecktangle]

This is a valid question.

I certainly would not advise anyone with a true edge to go the route of starting a new business to sell picks, but it could make sense for an already well established business to continuing selling high +EV picks.

You don't necessarily have to start a business, you can sell your expertise to touts who would resell the info to clients, or sell directly to clients once you establish a record. Neither of these routes require the time intensive overhead of "running a business".

In another direction, in addition to the money I've made directly form my methods, I've made well over 6 figures indirectly from sports betting: I've used the math, stat, and data mining techniques I've learned to add to my resume and "sell" that to companies. I would not have learned neural networks, bayesian stat, optimal search methods, data mining decision trees, game theory, or a few other methods without my interest in finding an sporting edge. My salary is at least 20% higher due to the fact I'm knowledgeable in these methods I learned directly from research in sports betting. It is much easier to learn a method when you have a deep interest in finding an advantage in the data set you're working with vice taking a course and working with the dry stat sets they present, and cheaper too.

[Edward-RAS]

You don't necessarily have to start a business, you can sell your expertise to touts who would resell the info to clients, or sell directly to clients once you establish a record. Neither of these routes require the time intensive overhead of "running a business".

Good point, I haven't considered the option of selling your expertise to an already well established service. Although I still think it would be easier to just find a well established bettor, assuming you did not have an adequate bankroll to bet for yourself.

All three options would be preferrable to selling picks directly to clients, even after establishing a record.

[Sawyer]

These best touts these days might do 55%, but you'll pay a lot for the best. I believe DrBob has a long term College FB record of around 56%, but has fallen off over the last several years. RAS seems good, but has had bad years and stretches too. .

Agreed with you about RAS. Past results don't guarantee future results. In addition, it's very hard to pick lines they released since lines move quickly.

[Wrecktangle]

The thing that is shocking to me is how quickly the market has changed. In the late 90s / early 2000s I was routinely posting 58-59% wins on sides in the NFL with fairly simple models. Now the NFL sides market is a 10-ton bitch to gain any advantage with industrial strength methods. Over time, I suspect the "easy" sports will eventually succumb to the NFL disease and more quickly than you might imagine.

So a lot of handicapping "pros" are now busting out. Ill equipped to competing in the real world of 9-5 jobs, these guys will live / are living miserable lives. I like mine, thank you very much.

[Wojo]

Wrecktangle makes some very good points. Not trying to patronize him, but it appears he knows math very well and has spent a fair amount of time in his capping. In looking at forums, it looks like there are a ton of people who believe they can beat the books. I believe they are living in a world of make-believe.

That's not to say there aren't forum posters who can do well. Whether their winning lasts longer than one season and remains consistent is a question I can't answer.

[Sean81]

People sell picks to the point at which it is no longer feasible to sell picks. Find somebody you prefer that is consistent with your personality. I use Steve Merril and he is the best football capper yearly.

[Wrecktangle]

Wrecktangle makes some very good points. Not trying to patronize him, but it appears he knows math very well and has spent a fair amount of time in his capping. In looking at forums, it looks like there are a ton of people who believe they can beat the books. I believe they are living in a world of make-believe.

That's not to say there aren't forum posters who can do well. Whether their winning lasts longer than one season and remains consistent is a question I can't answer.

Well, you certainly didn't understand my point, maybe because I didn't make it very clearly.

The market is getting extremely tough, and the trend is for it to get tougher. As more folks come on the scene with the math, db, and money management skills, it will get harder. All of this is accelerated by the internet, a hostile political scene foist upon us by the Republican crazies and now a bitch of an economy.

The sports market needs of a lot of fodder, in the form of square money for there to be enough scraps for the pros to make a living. Less money coming in at the top, a whole lot less falling off the table for the Pros to eat.

My solution for the average guy? Keep it as a hobby. Forget about trying to make money at this. Set up a reasonable limit for the season that doesn't impact the family and look at it like a vacation: enjoy it. Savor the sport. Because in 10 years the market will be so efficient, hardly anyone will make a living off this excepting the information guys and the books.

[Wojo]

Thanks for the clarification, Wrecktangle. I did understand a portion, but not all of it. I am optimistic that more states will have legalized sports betting as it is another source of taxation and government income. If that does happen, there will be ample squares. If it does not happen, your projection appears correct.

[jhersh777]

bump

[Wrecktangle]

Thanks for the clarification, Wrecktangle. I did understand a portion, but not all of it. I am optimistic that more states will have legalized sports betting as it is another source of taxation and government income. If that does happen, there will be ample squares. If it does not happen, your projection appears correct.

Well, I hope it will happen, but given what I've seen so far of Obama's DOJ (really an extension of W's DOJ using the same laws and tactics), if it is not clearly stated by the present congress, money will continue to go offshore and the American bettor will be caught between crappy books that drop you / take your money and a DOJ that can / will go after you on a whim.