[Winner_13]

I have heard that many pros do this....what do you think?

[Bill Dozer]

It depends what time of day and what sport. Pinny's baseball opening moves have been strong this year I'm told. The moves were not really coming through last NCAAF. Anything close to game time or half time is strong.

[Winner_13]

yea there 2nd halfs nbas were really iffy...man i wish i got in2 sportsbetting 5 years ago im only 18 but it was supposably a lot easier and the pinny lean was gold i hear

thanks for the response Bill it means a lot

[Winner_13]

bump

[Winner_13]

if you guys know who OSU Cowboys is...he is someone who if he finds something scalpable at pinny he will bet it somewhere else

[goblue12]

If you believe that Pinnacle is an efficient market, then yes, you can bet the soft side of the arbitrage opportunities between them and come out ahead.

[Winner_13]

the question is do you?

[goblue12]

I would be broke at the moment if that wasn't true.

[Winner_13]

thanks..im guna be testing results

[wrongturn]

I think yes, but like poker, expect the worst in short term, and use kelly betting so you don't go bust.

[Winner_13]

thanks

[Cookie Monster]

There are often Matchbook offers at the same price as pinny is taking. Say, the game is at pinny +120/-130, at matchbook the line is +120/-121. Getting matched an offer at -120 means taking the same price as pinny, about 5 cents better than the pinny no vig line. On the other hand many say that matchbook prices are even more efficient than pinny. So, is it a +EV play?

[Winner_13]

thats what i want to know

[magynuck]

usually

[Winner_13]

lol...how do you know if it is or is not

[Winner_13]

bump

[PRC]

absolutely

[magynuck]

bet limit/sport/overall market consensus/experience

[Winner_13]

2-9 are the results.


minimum 3 cents is the play.

even had plays at -190 , played -165....at pinny -374 i played -340

all these lost
so its really like 2-16

[Winner_13]

what i mean by minimum 3 cents...is the difference has to be a minimum 3 cent scalp between pinny and a square book with lower limits( bodog, SIA) . and the 3 cent minimums are usually MLB

in the other markets PInny has $7000 limit bodog $500 the lines can differ tons...but it has not been profitable yet.'
Im not saying it doesnt work it has just has not been profitable. If i say bodog is the sharper book the results are around 16(hit some +150-300) dogs-2

lol ..amazing well lets c if pinny can come thru for me in the long run.

I know it has for others

[cashfarm]

You have to follow the market, and it will work. Get the opening line, some other line during the day, half an hour before the game and from 5 mins to the start. Remember that the final 5 mins movement will always give you good indication of what the game can be. But i say, if you use another book, and this happen to me, after 3-4 bet at the max you can you get the cut. I was able to bet till 5k and after the 3rd straight win i get cut to 300$ and then to 100$. At the same moment if you watch the line again you will not see more the same difference because the book that you've hitted will make adjustment on his lines. best of luck

[Winner_13]

thanks cashfam I am doing this.
You were probably doing it on the bigger markets I guess.

All I know for MMA/Boxing I beat CRIS/Greek/ by atleast 35 cents.

It hasnt worked yet though im waiting for it to turn around

[Pokerjoe]

You need to very quickly stop thinking in terms of "cents."
"at pinny -374 i played -340" doesn't mean what you think it means. Well, if you think it means what I think you think it means.

Also, you need to stop thinking of the midpoint of Pinny's lines as being the no-vig line.

[sharpcat]

You should understand that .03 cents on a -110 line is not equivalent to .03 cents on a -190 line.

In your example where you bet -165 and the line was -190 at pinnacle, assume the line was -190/+160 making the no-vig price -170 at pinnacle.

-165= 62.26% win probability
-170= 62.96% win probability

In this scenario you only have roughly a 1% edge. In a small market with high juice I would not consider a 1% edge based off of the no-vig line to be a playable wager. As Pokerjoe suggested because of the high juice the true no-vig price does not have to be set perfectly for books to profit.

[roasthawg]

This strategy is best used with Pinny's live in game odds in my experience.