[jojo85]

Say you have a line of -270 on the favorite and +243 on the dog, then what would be the right calculation to convert this into a no vig line?

Any help is much appreciated!

[sharpcat]

An introduction to betting lines and percentages

[Rich Boy]

28.5% Dog
71.4% Fave

[LT Profits]

-270 = 270/370 = 72.97%
+243 = 100/343 = 29.15%

Overround = 72.97 + 29.15 = 102.12%

SO....
72.97/102.12 = 71.45% = -250.3
29.15/102.12 = 28.55% = +250.3

No Vig = +/-250.3

[SolidDala]

I need to win more than 73% to make a profit on the fav so what does the no-vig do more then show the implied probability for each outcome to occur... I mean do I need this when making bets

[jojo85]

cheers guys!

[dogman]

Quickest way- use the arb calculator bet #1 enter $100
line# 1 enter underdog line
line# 2 enter favotite

bet 2 will give you the no vig line


Got this from a Ricky Steve post

[suicidekings]

The market line = The No-Vig line + the juice.

The No-Vig line is representative of the probability of an outcome occurring, just in a different format. A No-Vig of +/-200 implies that the market believes the favourite has a 0.667 probability of winning, etc.

[MadTiger]

It could imply that more action is on the favorite, but not necessarily. In some cases, BOTH sides of the proposition (or all three sides in soccer events, etc.) could be juiced heavily and equally.

If they are charging you for a 66.7% probability, you should only be betting if you determine the true probable outcome of the situation to be more than 66.7%; specifically, more than the converted market line. Which only makes sense.

[Pokerjoe]

Here's the proper, and simpler, way to fig the no-vig line: it's somewhere between the broad market's best prices on a game.

If the best fave price on the broad, open market is, say, Pinny -125 and the best dog price on the broad, open market maybe is Greek +122, the no-vig line is between -125 and +122.

Using the broad market best-price line to set the parameters is more accurate than using any single book's line.
But trying to guess where the line is, within those parameters, is pointless. If the market could determine the point more precisely, the price gap would close to that point.

Converting US-style moneyline prices to win chance expressions is just algebra.

[Pokerjoe]

But, imo, the dog price is generally going to be much, much closer to the fair line than the fave price.

Look at the betting percentages. If most players are going to be betting the fave, then you would want to put the juice on the fave, up to the point (but not surpassing it) at which betting the dog becomes +EV.

If you're a bookie and you know a line should be -125, you should offer your customers -135/+125, if your customers are going to favor backing the fave.

And if that's what bookies should do (and in fact is what they commonly do), then you need to account for that when interpreting the lines.

[Pokerjoe]

The caveat to this approach is that you have to exclude books (e.g. Bodog) that shade their lines. These are not part of the 'real' market if you can't get a real bet down on them.

That's what I meant by broad, open market. SIA, Bodog, your local, etc, aren't part of that. They don't serve a broad set of bettors, and aren't open at all to many, most especially, to winners. Books that cripple-limit or flat out boot don't end up with lines as polished as those who take all comers.

But you can use the broad market to make a judgment with which to beat such books. In fact, that's how you use it.

[CHUBNUT]

Far too much time is spent trying to find what is only an opinion in the first place, Pokerjoe's way is the fastest if you really need it but fourlenthsclear is right about what books you use. There are odds sites that let you choose which books odds you want to see so thats the best approach. Different sports have reasons for where the vig might be and books will have different reasons for their choice, in soccer Ladbrokes and william hill 12X markets have nothing to do with their asian markets as one is to geared specifically to their betting shop clientel and the other their online clientel. I wonder how many more people would be successful in their betting if they put in as much time in their selection as they do in their quest for exactness of price and where the vig is.

[statictheory]

But, imo, the dog price is generally going to be much, much closer to the fair line than the fave price.

Look at the betting percentages. If most players are going to be betting the fave, then you would want to put the juice on the fave, up to the point (but not surpassing it) at which betting the dog becomes +EV.

If you're a bookie and you know a line should be -125, you should offer your customers -135/+125, if your customers are going to favor backing the fave.

And if that's what bookies should do (and in fact is what they commonly do), then you need to account for that when interpreting the lines.

This brings me to a question. I tried asking it before but probably not clearly. In a spread game like football
we have the juice at places like matchbook and pinny mimicking moneylines. So if a line is lets say, -6 -115
+6 +105, or the reverse -6 +105 +6 -115, is the -115 in effect saying that more people are taking that side at that number or that at that number the -115 side is in effect an advantage because it costs more? I realize that
when lines move from say a number like 3 to 31/2 its worth like 23 cents etc and push percentages come in etc, but
more is going on there. I made some assumptions and last 2 years nfl jus t under 54% and same in cbb over a large number of games.

[byronbb]

No-vig/Series Calculator

[LT Profits]

In a previous thread a guy used an example of a -270 favorite and a +243 under.

We determined that the non-vig line was -250.3

During the last few hours I have learned how to calculate this, but I still do not understand how the concept can be used to benefit me.

If the line is listed at -270 and the non-vig line is -250, does that mean the majority of the action is on the favorite? If it does, how should you react?

IF not, what exactly does it mean....

Please clarify.

If you accept Pinny line as gospel, you now know what line you need to beat at a shop with rogue lines.

[stevenash]

Now I remember why I drop by here.
For threads like these

[Heart]

Why does any of this matter?

[LT Profits]

Why does any of this matter?

If the line is efficient (i.e., Pinny for major sports), the no-vig line is the line you are looking to beat at a rouge (or slow moving) book.

[Heart]

If the line is efficient (i.e., Pinny for major sports), the no-vig line is the line you are looking to beat at a rouge (or slow moving) book.

For this to be profitable you'd have to assume the no-vig line represents the accurate probability of the outcome. Is there any data suggesting the no-vig line is an accurate predictor of actual results?

[LT Profits]

Do a search on beating Pinny's closing no vig line, or just Pinny no-vig closer in general. Hint: If you do beat it often enough, you'd be a very happy man. Is it 100%, no. Is Pinny no-vig closer the CLOSEST gauge to accurate probability, I vote yes.

[Heart]

Assuming no-vig line = real probability of outcome is true, then I would venture a guess (with nothing to back this speculation up with, mind you) that finding such opportunities as you suggest is few and far between, given the books blankets using the over-round.

[LT Profits]

Assuming no-vig line = real probability of outcome is true, then I would venture a guess (with nothing to back this speculation up with, mind you) that finding such opportunities as you suggest is few and far between, given the books blankets using the over-round.

Not as few as you think at square books, but they toss you as soon as they figure you have a clue. If you have a reliable predictive model, bet early. If the line moves with you and you beat Pinny no-vig closer, you'll know you are doing things right.

[uva3021]

Conceptually, the goal is to beat Pinnacle, thus one has to calculate the no-vig line to determine whether or not the implied winning percentage of another book has value compared to Pinnacle. Other books have different, typically higher, overrounds, and calculating fair odds allows you to assess market positions.

[wiffle]

lol at wantitall

you don't know how to calculate a no vig line

[BrUno0]

Thats more than the geniuses usually say in here.

No one knows how to calculate a no vig line actually, because it varies from book to book and in a lot of cases game to game.

Also depends on semantics. A 'true' no vig line would be a fair line in terms of actual odds to win, not in terms of odds to generate action. So if you thought a team had a 60% chance to win then the no vig line would be -150/+150. But the books might post a line that is -120/+110 on the same game. With who knows how much vig taken from each side. One would assume they are calculating their no vig at -115/+115. But more than likely theyre taking all the vig off the favorite and the -120/110 is actually their no vig line. So basically if the favroite wins (the side with the strongest inherant win chance inthe first place) then theyre getting full vig on th pay out. Either guys will lay 120 to win 100 or only get back 83.33 per 100 bet. If the dog happens to win then they get he best of it too, they are paying the least amount they thought they had to and got the extra money people bet on the 'strong' side.

I dont really think most people even know what vig is. Vig is just the amount taken off a winning bet when the book pays off two opposing set of odds. Only winners pay vig. I think that is something people dont get either, so in reality every losing bet is a no vig bet anyway. But that is really playing the semantics card.

Vig is built in so that you are paying 100% on each individual bet. So on a football wager at -110 you lay 110 to win 100, or 100 to win 90.91. thats 9.09%. If you win you get that 9.09 taken off your collection, if you lose you lose your bet regardless of amount. BUT in the long run if you lay -110 every game and are a 54% capper, you actually are paying 4.91% (not 4.55 as some people think vig is @-110.). Example in 50 plays youre 27-23 (54%). You lay 100 per game @ -110. You have put 5000 into play. You will collect 154.55 in profits (2454.55 - 2300). NO vig would have gotten you 400 profit. (2700-2300) So 400 less the 154.55 means the books took 245.45 from what you 'should' have won. 245.45/5000= .04909 or 4.91%. This is one of the few times math is relevant in sports betting. If you had gone 50-0 (for sake of showing work) then you would have put the same 5000 into action, you would have collected 4545.54. 5000-4545.54= 454.46. 454.46/5000= .090892 or 9.09%.

Where a smart gambler is to use the odds against a book, since they have to move odds to balance or entice action then guys with some smarts can cherry pick spots and basically become a bookie themselves. So while they can find odds on opposing teams in the same game that are +ev. For example +110 on Team A and +105 on Team B. It doesnt matter what a no vig line is or even what vig is on it. But in the purest form Vig for the book would be a negative in this situation as they have to pay more than they collect on either side for each bet they took at those specific odds anyway. But even in determining scalps the way you do it out assumes a pure 50/50 chance of either team winning, or pretty close. So in this case with what is around a 3.73% advantage to the player he will expect to get back $7.46 for every 100 dollars bet. It isnt exactly 50% so in this case the actual pay off would be 7.38 per 100 bet on either side. Doesnt matter who wins thats what the player would get back and what the book would have to pay.

That is why I say there is no way to determine a no vig line even on a game where a scalp isnt available or ever was available because enough games do have spots where prices cross over scalpable numbers to void out any formula a book might have in determining a no vig line. More often than not I think they charge the max amount for whatever side they think is getting bet the most, as I said in the opening sentence. That way as long as the line keeps moving on them theyre getting the max amount of 'commission' from each dollar.

if you get both sides +110 and +105 (assuming winning chances are 50%) how do you get 7.46 (i got 7.5). And can you tell me how you got the 7.38?

Also for the 5000 can you tell me how you get 4545.54 (i get the same number just different decimals)

also if you bet 110 to win 100 isn't -110 10% vig? or 9.09? or 4.55%? i see numerous percentages that say -110 is 10%, 4.55%, 9.09%, please help