Teasing both sides of the same game (via PM)

Ganchrow · 11-24-2007, 10:20 AM

Received via PM:

Quote:

I see alot of people on the board talking about doing teasers for the phlly/NE game on sunday.

do you think it makes sense to tease both eagles and pats for 7 points ... [in a single teaser]?

No. Almost certainly not.

In general teasing different sides of the same bet in a single teaser is a very bad idea. The reason for this is because in a teaser what you're really trying to do is maximize the probability of both teams covering the teased spread at the same time. Part of the time that one team covers it's going to be because it blew out the spread by so much that the tease of the other team would fail to cover.

Another way of looking at this is that a teaser is really a type of parlay. By betting different sides of the same game you're parlaying two negatively correlated events, which is hurts the value of parlays.

Example:

Let's say that you think that you believe two teams (not playing one another) each have an 78% probability of covering a teased spread at (standard for 7-point teasers). This would make both teased bets excellent choices for a teaser. The teaser would cover with probability 78%² = 60.84%, which would imply a hefty player advantage of about 60.84%× - 1 ≈ 7.64%.

Now let's say that the two teams you believed each had an 78% probability of covering a teased spread were playing one another.

This means that each team would fail to cover its teased spread 1-78% = 22% of the time. That 22% of the time, however, the other team would cover its teased spread. Hence, both teams would simultaneously cover only 1-22%-22% = 56% of the time. This implies a player (dis)advantage of about 56%×1.7692 - 1 ≈ -0.92%.

So the moral of the story is this: Tease both sides of the same game if you like, just make sure to do so in different teasers.

raiders72002 · 11-24-2007, 12:02 PM

Ganch

Quote:

Tease both sides of the same game if you like, just make sure to do so in different teasers.

Ganch- I finally got you to screw up. You must be having a Thanksgiving hangover. I guess you had relatives over and had a little too much wine.

There's no number in football that would be advantageous to tease both sides of a game teased with two different games.

raiders72002 · 11-24-2007, 12:04 PM

Ganch- Don't blow that computer up trying to figure a way out of this one.

RickySteve · 11-24-2007, 01:28 PM

Someday you'll grasp the notion of a hypothetical.

raiders72002 · 11-24-2007, 01:32 PM

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Someday you'll grasp the notion of a hypothetical.

Hopefully one day you won't be such as ass but I really can't see that happening.

In case you haven't noticed my posts aren't serious about Ganch. I just like to give him a hard time and joke around with him. I guess the math is way over your head.

Taking another beating today?

RickySteve · 11-24-2007, 01:42 PM

I'm certainly nowhere near the analytical genius that you are. Just because I'm a crazy gambler, though, how about we both put up $10K and whoever scores higher on the GRE Mathematics Subject Test takes it? Easy money for you.

raiders72002 · 11-24-2007, 01:49 PM

That's an elementary math test........The envelope's going to awfully thick that you hand the man Tuesday. I'll bet you can't even seal it.

Justin7 · 11-24-2007, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raiders72002

Ganch Ganch- I finally got you to screw up. You must be having a Thanksgiving hangover. I guess you had relatives over and had a little too much wine.

There's no number in football that would be advantageous to tease both sides of a game teased with two different games.

Raiders,

I have to disagree.

A 6-pt road dog with a low total (under 36) is a good tease both ways, as long as not in the same teaser.

rm18 · 11-24-2007, 07:56 PM

8.5 point road dog maybe, I thought that Tennesee/Oakland game from a couple weeks ago would have landed between 2.5 and 14.5 well over 50%, especially because I loved the under

rm18 · 11-24-2007, 07:57 PM

Bills/Jags this week might be good too

raiders72002 · 11-24-2007, 10:28 PM

How about teasing a total of 35.5?

Justin7 · 11-24-2007, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raiders72002

How about teasing a total of 35.5?

Not terrible (if you tease over), but still a loser at -241 for a 1-leg teaser.

curious · 11-25-2007, 09:10 AM

If you knew that the probability of a game ending in a close score was high. And you wanted to increase the margin of error. Then teasing both sides of the same game would make sense, I guess.

I don't see any other circumstances where it would make sense.

Ganchrow · 11-25-2007, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by curious

If you knew that the probability of a game ending in a close score was high. And you wanted to increase the margin of error. Then teasing both sides of the same game would make sense, I guess.

Right.

Just (ideally) not in the same teaser.

raiders72002 · 11-25-2007, 09:54 AM

Ganch- Let's see the math. Of course use low totals. This has to be the first time that you avoided a question with generalities.

I think you are stumped.

Ganchrow · 11-25-2007, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raiders72002

Ganch- Let's see the math. Of course use low totals. This has to be the first time that you avoided a question with generalities.

I think you are stumped.

As RickySteve already said, it was a hypothetical.

If you wanted to tease both sides of a game (in any sport), you'd ideally do so in different teasers.