[danperkins]

Hey Guys,

I'm currently working on a online web book which will be posted for free around internet sports gambling forums and websites. What I am trying to accomplish is a 13 section article set on Becoming A Better Gambler. Each section will include a deep in-depth article that can help turn the average public bettor who bets for entertainment purposes into a more serious profiting gambler. It can also help serious bettors redefine the way they bet and make them realize that you don't have to be hitting 70% to be successful at gambling. Currently I have the following topics/ article ideas...

1. Growing Your Bankroll.
2. Money Management.
3. How The Books Set The Lines To Trap You.
4. Parlay For Profit.
5. What To Look For In A Line.
6. Halftime Betting.
7. Winning Percentages/ Weekly Goals.
8. Facts Of Sports Betting and Your Bankroll.
9. Do You Have What It Takes To Be A Professional?
10. What Sport Is Right For You?
11. The Motivational/Revenge Factor.
12. Topic Needed
13. Topic Needed

Could you guys help me out and give your ideas on 2 more topics that would work in this web book. I know some of you will take this as a joke and some will take it seriously which is cool. Any input would be greatly appreciated.

[bookie]

1H Betting...Key Numbers...The Value of a Half Point in Basketball and Football (sides and totals)...Record Keeping...Conducting a Handicapping Audit...Depositing, Withdrawing, Paying Taxes...Aces Gold: Why Bad Things Happen to Good Bettors.

[bigboydan]

How about adding something like arbitrage/hedging

[danperkins]

Like em all..

Hedging and Record Keeping are great ones that many average bettors should use when they play every day.

[chriscapper]

Don't agree with hedging...thats like telling gamblers to second guess themselves. You sould add something about betting with local books vs online books. Pro's and con's for each. Hope it works out for you. Would love to read.

[NFL 1st String]

Definately a good idea.

Keep this thread or create another one about the subject.

Also , if you have some of those chapters fleshed out , would you mind posting a preview.

Good Luck with your project .

[danperkins]

Here is my article on Money Management, leave your feedback on this one!

[danperkins]

Money Management, How To Do It and What To Expect.
Written By: Dan Perkins

Becoming a better gambler and beginning to earn consistent profits all starts with one key concept, Money Management. Money Management has brought the demise to hundred of common bettors and even more professional bettors. Below are some of the key points about bad management and how to create good money management.
Every single person that has placed a sports bet in their lives has felt good about a particular game and put a little extra on it only to see their team lose by a last minute field goal or buzzer beater. Think back and remember that game, I bet you can remember every last detail about it, however don’t worry because correct money management is not only easy to explain but its also a lot easier then it seems if you follow the steps below.
Anytime you place a wager and increase it from your set percentage you increase the breakeven percentage of 52%. This breakeven percentage goes even higher when you play your games on a 1 Unit to 10 Unit scale so much that it may even be 57-60%. It will come to the point where you might as well not even play your small plays because in the end only your big bets will affect your bankroll.
Another example of bad money management is over betting on hot streaks and under betting on cold streaks. If you keep bumping your bet on a hot streak only to take a tumble that day followed by dropping your bet size you will never get back to where you started from. If you knew you were on a hot streak and would win that night, why not triple your bet size, if you knew that you were going to be a losing skid that night, why bet anything? By doing this your betting pattern will become erratic and you will have no way of predicting your break even percentage or return on investment.
Return on Investment is what makes sports betting such a good way to earn your living and make some amazing profits. Investment is the total number of games and amount bet on those games. Return is exactly what is sounds like, the amount of money you get back or your winnings.

Since the average professional sports bettor aims to hit 57% we will use that percentage in the following examples.
You should aim to place roughly 500 bets per 6 months. You must bet 1.1 of your bankroll on every play to win 1%. That means you will risk 500% of my bankroll every 500 bets. Winning 57% of the 500 plays will give you a total of 285 wins and 215 losses.
Take those 215 losses and multiply them by 1.1 to calculate the “juice” paid on a -110 point spread bet. That gives you a grand total of 236 losses.
Subtract the 285 wins from 236 losses will get you a net unit gain of 49 units or 49% of your bankroll per 6 months.
If you divide the 500 bets by 6 months you would find yourself placing 83 bets per month. Hitting at 57% you will win 47 bets and lose 35 (x1.1) 39 total bets.
This will net you a rough total of 8 units per month or 2 per week. The average $50,000 a year job will net you $3800 a month. To achieve 50,000 a year betting on sports you must have a betting bankroll of $50,000. This will allow you to bet $500 a game and will provide you with the adequate amount of earnings to live off of. $500 x 8 (units per month) = $4000.

The previous examples show you how crucial money management is in gambling. If you are simply an average bettor or a professional bettor you need to follow this chart to be successful. Keep in mind the average stock market will produce a 10% return per 6-8 months, hitting 57% in sports over a 6 month period following strict money management you will gain a 48-50% return on your investment. Sports betting is not a sprint but rather a long distance marathon. The average public bettor expects his or her bankroll to grow every single day, the advanced professional sports bettor knows that only 5% of the time will his or her bankroll reach a new high. That’s 19 out of 20 days each month you will be below your previous bankrolls peak. If you continue following this game plan and you will instantly become a better sports bettor then you were 5 minutes before reading this article.

[Dark Horse]

Err.. Not good.

Ganch?

()

[danperkins]

What was wrong with it?

[Ganchrow]

Originally Posted by danperkins

What was wrong with it?

I definitely applaud your obvious interest in the subject and the dedication with which you're clearly addressing this project.

But while your heart's in the right place might I suggest that you might be better served spending some additional time better familiarizing yourself with the existing literature before proceeding with your own book?

[joeygats]

Originally Posted by danperkins

What was wrong with it?

i like it and cant wait to read the rest ty

[durito]

Originally Posted by danperkins

Anytime you place a wager and increase it from your set percentage you increase the breakeven percentage of 52%. This breakeven percentage goes even higher when you play your games on a 1 Unit to 10 Unit scale so much that it may even be 57-60%. It will come to the point where you might as well not even play your small plays because in the end only your big bets will affect your bankroll.

I'm not sure I understand here. If you are laying -110, your break even pt is 52.38% regardless of how much you are betting per unit.

Originally Posted by danperkins

Since the average professional sports bettor aims to hit 57% we will use that percentage in the following examples.
You should aim to place roughly 500 bets per 6 months. You must bet 1.1 of your bankroll on every play to win 1%. That means you will risk 500% of my bankroll every 500 bets. Winning 57% of the 500 plays will give you a total of 285 wins and 215 losses.
Take those 215 losses and multiply them by 1.1 to calculate the “juice” paid on a -110 point spread bet. That gives you a grand total of 236 losses.
Subtract the 285 wins from 236 losses will get you a net unit gain of 49 units or 49% of your bankroll per 6 months.

I would expect that most professionals are able to quantify their edge on any particular play and are thus most likely not flat betting.

Originally Posted by danperkins

[u]Keep in mind the average stock market will produce a 10% return per 6-8 months,

I wish.

[Louisvillekid1]

Really interested in this thread, as far as topics go. . . Must add Hedging, Record Keeping, early numbers (When to get the lines, and how to know if you should jump on the line early or wait for a better line) . . . Specialize in one sport, or play them all? . . . Alot of great posters here to give you a hand also . . . Keep this thread around

[Louisvillekid1]

83 bets per month is alot IMO. . .

[MrX]

It's a noble goal to provide good information on this subject in an accessible format and at no cost. God knows the gambling theory information available on the internet is awful. I'm afraid, however, that if you proceed without a significant amount of additional research you will just be contributing to the current sad state of affairs. Also, some studying of style and grammar would not hurt.

"Growing Your Bankroll", "Money Management", and "Facts Of Sports Betting and Your Bankroll" seem too closely related to be individual chapters in a book of this scope. Same goes for "How The Books Set The Lines To Trap You" and "What To Look For In A Line".

Much of the money management article is bordering on incoherent, and there are some factual errors that have already been pointed out. But maybe money management isn't your best area. I'd suggest writing "Halftime Betting" next or at least posting an outline of that article here for critique.

In terms of style, I'd suggest focusing much more on sentence and paragraph structure to introduce, refine, and summarize concepts. I'd also suggest much much less reliance on underlined, bolded, and italicized phrases.

I honestly think you're a long ways away from the goal stated in your original post, but I wish you the best. Writing a book (even a modest online collection of articles), if you properly research it, will be one of the most educational experiences of your life.

[kiwi]

Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1

83 bets per month is alot IMO. . .

I play more than 1000 bets (arbs) some months.

[Louisvillekid1]

Originally Posted by kiwi

I play more than 1000 bets (arbs) some months.

you a pro? successful?

[Louisvillekid1]

Don't get discouraged from the critiques, their is still valuable info to to learned, keep posting your articles, as a rough draft atleast. . .

[kiwi]

Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1

you a pro? successful?

Sure, I am successful, but arbing is a completely different thing than betting because normally I win not very much with the single bets (between 5 and 50 Euro in average) but I need not to care so much about money management and also there is no need to estimate the winning probability for the teams. Therefore I save a lot of time and can play many more bets.
But I guess nowadays for beginners it is not easy to start arbing successfully.

[vanman]

Originally Posted by kiwi

Sure, I am successful, but arbing is a completely different thing than betting because normally I win not very much with the single bets (between 5 and 50 Euro in average) but I need not to care so much about money management and also there is no need to estimate the winning probability for the teams. Therefore I save a lot of time and can play many more bets.
But I guess nowadays for beginners it is not easy to start arbing successfully.

It`s not easy arbing even when you`ve been doing it for years.

[greek]

hey just wonderin __________ we all wanna be millionaires here or get some change at the window !!!!1lets say you got 4 favorites [team a-3 ats] [b -4 ats] [c-7ats ] [d -10.5 ats]= 4 fav. ats , and you only starting out with 500$ , wouldnt be best to just do a teaser at say 9.5 points and 500$ on it ? to make the most , i know its a slow way to make money but its pretty sure right? basically iam like if wanna make a 1000$ just find a pretty sure fav or dog add the most points to it [tease] put 1300or 1500 on it and make 1000$ right? thats makin the most of 4 teams and 500$ gl greek

[kiwi]

Originally Posted by vanman

It`s not easy arbing even when you`ve been doing it for years.

For me it has prooved to be the best way and this didn't change. If competition is getting harder you need to make some progress too and find new ways...

[Gurni]

Originally Posted by kiwi

I play more than 1000 bets (arbs) some months.

You don´t BET, if you arb that is something totally different. You´re a clown

[Louisvillekid1]

Originally Posted by kiwi

For me it has prooved to be the best way and this didn't change. If competition is getting harder you need to make some progress too and find new ways...

give me an example of a game or two, the way you play it . . .

[kiwi]

Originally Posted by Gurni

You don´t BET, if you arb that is something totally different. You´re a clown

Did you read what I wrote?
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
Did I say arbing is like normal betting?
[ ] Yes
[ ] No
Conclusion: you can't read.

[kiwi]

Originally Posted by Louisvillekid1

give me an example of a game or two, the way you play it . . .

Sorry, you can find everywhere what arbing is.
In case I do something you can't read everywhere I also cannot tell you...
Good luck though.

[Thremp]

That excerpt is really bad. Reading >>>> Writing

[fredtheturd]

I don't want to hijack this thread anymore than it all ready is but Arbing may not be an American's cup of tea. Basically playing one books odds against another, but most US legal offshore books have almost identical odds. The most of the ones with rediculous odds like +200 when it should be -300 are European and not US legal. Not to mention you have to keep money in every book (which can be like 20) to be ready when you scope out an Arbitrage opportunity. And some books can be a royal pain to add money to.


Dan:

I like the article. Keep it up...I'm anxious to read more.