Converting NFL Lines To Money Lines Via "Ganchulator"

HedgeHog · 10-10-2007, 03:46 PM

I am intrigued by the Ganch Calculator and have been messing around with it the past few days. If I did it right, the following lines would covert to the following money lines. For example a 4 pt favorite would equate to a ML fair value of 192. If you had a 4 pt fav and the ML was -185 then the Fav's ML is a solid play. All NFL lines are considered evenly weighted (i.e. -105 each side or -110 each side depending on your book's juice). I got the results below by putting in the line and then putting 100 in both the fav and dog boxes. I then scrolled to zero to get the corresponding ML. Hopefully Ganch will lend some insight here.

NFL Line NFL ML
1 ---- 105
1.5 ---- 111
2 ---- 115
2.5 ---- 120
3 ---- 146
3.5 ---- 180
4 ---- 192
4.5 ---- 205
5 ---- 214
5.5 ---- 222
6 ---- 241
6.5 ---- 262
7 ---- 303
7.5 ----- 356
8 ---- 379
8.5 ---- 405
9 ---- 417
9.5 ---- 429
10 ---- 508
10.5 ---- 615
11 ---- 677
11.5 ---- 750
12 ---- 766
12.5 ---- 783
13 ----- 836
13.5 ------ 897

20Four7 · 10-10-2007, 03:56 PM

His tools are amazing to play with. I've been playing with 1st and 2nd half's and his tools to see if I can do the same as what you've been playing with. 2nd half's especially. I love the term "Ganchulator".

Ganchrow · 10-10-2007, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HedgeHog

I am intrigued by the Ganch Calculator ...

Thank you, kindly. But allow me to point out that there are currently nine Ganchrow calculators for your calculating pleasure.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HedgeHog

and have been messing around with it the past few days. If I did it right, the following lines would covert to the following money lines. For example a 4 pt favorite would equate to a ML fair value of 192. If you had a 4 pt fav and the ML was -185 then the Fav's ML is a solid play. All NFL lines are considered evenly weighted (i.e. -105 each side or -110 each side depending on your book's juice). I got the results below by putting in the line and then putting 100 in both the fav and dog boxes. I then scrolled to zero to get the corresponding ML. Hopefully Ganch will lend some insight here.

Unfortunately, that's not exactly right. It's pretty close for smaller spreads, (say ≤ 3), and probably not all that far off for modest spreads (≤ 7) but continues getting progressively worse the greater the discrepancy between favorite and under dog. Really, the half-point calculator as it stands is only meant for determining the marginal value of very small numbers of half-points. For large line movements and conversion between larger point spreads and money lines, it shouldn't be use as much more than a rough guide.

As stated in the calculator description:

Important note: The calculator becomes increasingly less accurate the farther away from the starting spread/total it moves. Although the calculator allows you to examine prices more than 1½ points from the initial spread/total, doing so is not generally recommended and such values should be viewed with an abundance of caution.

That said, a money line to spread conversion tool is in the works.

HedgeHog · 10-10-2007, 04:23 PM

Thanks, Ganch. Glad I asked before I put this to use. Everyone else should simply ignore this thread.

LT Profits · 10-10-2007, 04:23 PM

Calculator aside, NFL Home Underdogs between +1 and +2.5 are now 227-208, 52.2% STRAIGHT UP since 1985. So if you like a small home dog, a Money Line bet is automatic.

LT Profits · 10-10-2007, 04:27 PM

Ganchulator aside, NFL Home Underdogs of between +1 and +2.5 are now 227-208, 52.2% STRAIGHT UP since 1985. So if you like a small home underdog, a Money Line play is automatic.

LT Profits · 10-10-2007, 04:28 PM

Sorry for the dupe.

HedgeHog · 10-10-2007, 05:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LT Profits

Calculator aside, NFL Home Underdogs between +1 and +2.5 are now 227-208, 52.2% STRAIGHT UP since 1985. So if you like a small home dog, a Money Line bet is automatic.

Good Info. Possible play on KC this week. Cincy, on the road, is currently a weak 3/strong 2.5 depending on the Book.