[sycoogtit]

Does anyone know where archives of NBA 1st quarter lines can be found? I can find plenty of archives, but none with the 1st quarter.

[Wrecktangle]

I haven't seen such, but I'm told places like Don Best might have this.

[Peep]

I have never seen one.

But you can pretty well make up one of your own. They are pretty standardized. Check out The Greek for a few days. You'll see for example that a game lined at -10 generally will be -3 1Q/ -3 2Q/ -3 3Q/ -2 4Q.

[sycoogtit]

I haven't seen such, but I'm told places like Don Best might have this.

I thought about Don Best too, but I can't find much of anything on Don Best related to archived odds.

I have never seen one. But you can pretty well make up one of your own. They are pretty standardized. Check out The Greek for a few days. You'll see for example that a game lined at -10 generally will be -3 1Q/ -3 2Q/ -3 3Q/ -2 4Q.

That's very interesting. Thanks for that.

[RickySteve]

I'm fairly sure DB does not have archived quarter lines.

[Wrecktangle]

1st Q & 1st half seems like it can be derived from the game line, 2nd half lines need to be scraped from somewhere.

I've always wanted to get a db group together where some folks might share skills. I hate data scraping, and much prefer to model.

[SolidDala]

1Q: roughly estimated 1/3 of Game spread, far from accurate hence the +/- .5 spread margin..

[bookie]

There's a danger in using a formula to figure first quarter lines. First, the linemaker recognizes emotional situations and will jack a 1Q line up as much as a point and a half in a favorable handicapping situation, and then of course players collectively get it too and will sometimes move a 1Q line while the game line sits there still as a moose.

[Peep]

There's a danger in using a formula to figure first quarter lines. First, the linemaker recognizes emotional situations and will jack a 1Q line up as much as a point and a half in a favorable handicapping situation, and then of course players collectively get it too and will sometimes move a 1Q line while the game line sits there still as a moose.

Disagree, but certainly willing to listen.

What sort of "emotional situation" have you seen or could envision that would jack up a 1Q line but not the game line?

I can't think of any that would not effect both.

[bookie]

Disagree, but certainly willing to listen.

What sort of "emotional situation" have you seen or could envision that would jack up a 1Q line but not the game line?

I can't think of any that would not effect both.

A bad team plays a good team coming off a big game the night before...line will swing to accommodate the possibility of a flat start...or a team like Phoenix coming off a disappointing game playing someone they should beat...say game line is -10, 1Q line may be 3.5 or 4 by close. The game line is discounted relative to the 1Q because of the back door cover equity.

It also happens when there's a multi-year history of a certain bias, like the Portland 1Q home bias that Coach McMillan seems somehow to be able to conjure up down the stretch. I believe they're 19-19 ATS at home, but the market "knows" their by quarter chart in the context of the season flow and adjusts for it. Portland's 1Q Away record looks good, but so too is their game record--and so you don't find the same decided adjustments.