[statnerds]

could there be a ML that is too large?

changed my mind on this one. is that what good cappers do? take in info, compare to current thoughts or beliefs and make a decision as to the correct path. i have trouble being a conservative bettor because i associate higher MLs with increased risk.

how high would you go? think i know Justin's answer.

[Justin7]

It's all about EV. As a practical matter though, if you want a win rate 3% above the converted moneyline, you can't bet any game with a moneyline above a 97% win rate (-3233).

If a game is priced at -400 and I think it should be -500, I have no problem firing (or laying -1000 if it should be -2000).

[lordswing]

A good example would be to look at Superbowl moneylines, they have some ridiculous juice where the favorites often have value with a -300 or -400 line.

[statnerds]

exactly, as long as you determine it is +EV.

i only asked because the idea met some friction in the NCAA BB forum when i said No 1 seeds are 100-0 SU since the 64 team field started in 1984. and while past performance doesn't determine the results of future independent events, it would be foolish to ignore. of course i don't have the stomach for laying that much on one play and was looking only to use those MLs in some RRs.

No 2 seeds are 96-4 over the same period

Justin - are you saying that the max we should ever lay is -3233? on the odds Converter, i entered 99.99% since 100% is null and it came back at -1000000.

i'm guessing these ML favs in Madness are going to be 4000+.

[donjuan]

Please learn the correct terminology. Juice has nothing to do with how much you have to lay or large moneyline favs. Rather, it is the theoretical hold by the book. I'm convinced half the reason you come across so poorly on here is you have no idea what the words you and others are using actually mean.

[trixtrix]

no

i just bought a gallon of apple juice, no such thing as too much of a good thing

[statnerds]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Please learn the correct terminology. Juice has nothing to do with how much you have to lay or large moneyline favs. Rather, it is the theoretical hold by the book. I'm convinced half the reason you come across so poorly on here is you have no idea what the words you and others are using actually mean.

great input, pointing out the incorrectly worded title.

anyone opening the thread would immediately know the question as, unless it fails to meet your grammatical standards. yes the ML is not juice, nor is it vig free. because if we took the implied probability of each side of said ML it would surpass 100%. unless you calculate a higher ML than offered, thinking you have an edge, resulting in, at least in your mind, a line free of vig. of course you (the collective you) can never accurately measure your edge, but we slave away on a daily basis doing that very thing. i would guess the majority of bettors over-estimate their edge, and i would further assert that it is more prevalent amongst novice or recreational bettors. i am not suggesting there is not an edge to be found, but attaching a mathematical value expressed as a % is flawed. you will never properly formulate a calculation that will return an exact number on the likelihood of an outcome. naturally the market will be held up as the be all and end all of efficiency. this line of thinking also leads me to question Kelly and its use, which i am most certain has been debated from both sides at length here on SBR. i can only point out that it has two main flaws, the first being you can never accurately determine your edge. the second being Kelly, in its original conception, relies on sequential events, which doesn't happen in any sports market. therefore, any employment of Kelly uses a bastardrized version of Kelly, making it less than optimal. i wish luck to anyone tinkering away with it trying to perfect an imperfect system.

as to your original point, you should start a sticky in the newbie forum with full definitions of all words betting related. that is a good idea.

[Dunder]

Two different ways to answer the question:

1) If a situation is +EV then there is no such thing as too much juice.

2) The higher the win probability the lower your margin for error when applying Kelly.

[IWinMyBets]

Anyone know where the term "Juice" comes from anyway? I don't. That's why I ask.

[Jive]

I'm guessing "juice" comes from the bookies trying to squeeze some of your winnings out of you. I don't know but that is always what I have thought.

[sportscash]

Originally Posted by Jive

I'm guessing "juice" comes from the bookies trying to squeeze some of your winnings out of you. I don't know but that is always what I have thought.

That sounds about right.

[louis.ana]

I would not bother with a favorite greather than -125.
-125 is an 80 cents return to your dollar, that is if you win.

You can also consider your win percentage, you need to hit
52.36% at -110 to break even
55.56% at -125 to break even
58.48% at -140 to break even
66.67% at -200 to break even

So, if you are winning 55% of your games you will need to play lines less than -125 to make a profit.

[IWinMyBets]

Originally Posted by Jive

I'm guessing "juice" comes from the bookies trying to squeeze some of your winnings out of you. I don't know but that is always what I have thought.

Appreciate the reply. I kinda thought it might have been something like the sweetness that they squeeze out of bettors.

[donjuan]

Originally Posted by louis.ana

I would not bother with a favorite greather than -125.
-125 is an 80 cents return to your dollar, that is if you win.

You can also consider your win percentage, you need to hit
52.36% at -110 to break even
55.56% at -125 to break even
58.48% at -140 to break even
66.67% at -200 to break even

So, if you are winning 55% of your games you will need to play lines less than -125 to make a profit.

Thanks for keeping the SB prop market so wildly ineffcient.

[Peeig]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Thanks for keeping the SB prop market so wildly ineffcient.

lol....nh sir

[soxwin]

These are the %'s you would have to hit at the odds specified to break even. This is equal to expected win rates.

-110, break even mark is 52.4%
-120, 54.5%
-130, 56.5%
-140, 58.3%
-150, 60.0%
-160, 61.5%
-170, 63.0%
-180, 64.3%
-190, 65.5%
-200, 66.7%
+200, 33.3%
+190, 34.5%
+180, 35.7%
+170, 37%
+160, 38.5%
+150, 40%
+140, 41.7%
+130. 43.5%
+120, 45.5%
+110, 47.6%

if you want to bet a -150 fave. You have to have reason to believe that they will win more than 60% of the time. IF you do then -150 isn't too much juice.

[Vesuvius]

Originally Posted by soxwin

These are the %'s you would have to hit at the odds specified to break even. This is equal to expected win rates.

-110, break even mark is 52.4%
-120, 54.5%
-130, 56.5%
-140, 58.3%
-150, 60.0%
-160, 61.5%
-170, 63.0%
-180, 64.3%
-190, 65.5%
-200, 66.7%
+200, 33.3%
+190, 34.5%
+180, 35.7%
+170, 37%
+160, 38.5%
+150, 40%
+140, 41.7%
+130. 43.5%
+120, 45.5%
+110, 47.6%

if you want to bet a -150 fave. You have to have reason to believe that they will win more than 60% of the time. IF you do then -150 isn't too much juice.

Easier said than done.

[soxwin]

Originally Posted by Vesuvius

Easier said than done.

And what you said my friend is the very essense of capping. That sentence separates the winners from the reloaders.

[donjuan]

Going back to the original question, there is definitely such a thing as a ML too large, particularly if the bet doesn't settle quickly. However, if it settles quickly and is parlay-able, there shouldn't be a ML too large to at least include in a parlay.

[statnerds]

Originally Posted by donjuan

Going back to the original question, there is definitely such a thing as a ML too large, particularly if the bet doesn't settle quickly. However, if it settles quickly and is parlay-able, there shouldn't be a ML too large to at least include in a parlay.

thank you.

i cannot imagine another scenario other than No 1 seeds being 100-0 SU that i would entertain a huge ML. and i am only considering them by RR with them with other plays.

[Plato]

I don't think they do ML's on those number 1 and 2 seed games because they win so often. I could be wrong, but I have not run across it.

[LT Profits]

No ML available for Kansas vs. Lehigh

[Jive]

5dimes has ML on all games, but they are insane. Kansas is -21500, for example. Even in a parlay that won't do you much good.

[donjuan]

Originally Posted by Jive

5dimes has ML on all games, but they are insane. Kansas is -21500, for example. Even in a parlay that won't do you much good.

Limits.

[BigdaddyQH]

You can find ML's on every game in Vegas. Kentucky is a 1 seed and is at -9000 vs Eastern Tennessee State.

The whole thing boils down to ROI. If you have to lay 900 bucks to win 10, that is not a good ROI. The risk of a loss, no matter how small, exceeds the reward. In Horse Racing, we call people who wager on huge favorites "Bridge Jumpers" because they put huge amounts of money up to win small amounts.