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Old 03-12-10, 12:19 AM   #1
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Default No "Systems" in the Think Tank please

A system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is. If you follow this, you will lose. Please don't clutter up the Think Tank with losing systems.
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Old 03-12-10, 01:06 AM   #2
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I agree!
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Old 03-12-10, 01:47 AM   #3
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Handicapper Think Tank Handicapping Theories, Systems, Tips, Tricks and Math
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Old 03-12-10, 04:06 AM   #4
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Justin, some people claim RLM is a system. What is your take on it?
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Old 03-12-10, 08:48 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner View Post
Justin, some people claim RLM is a system. What is your take on it?
If it used to work it he past, it won't going forward.
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Old 03-12-10, 12:09 PM   #6
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Sounds like someone's system went south?
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Old 03-12-10, 12:44 PM   #7
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Hey Justin.......FYI, the subtitle for the forum says that systems are found inside the Think Tank Forum. You might wanna change that if you don't want systems in here.
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Old 03-12-10, 02:02 PM   #8
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Man, I was just putting the final touches on a 125-41 ATS system. But it doesn't consider the line, so I won't be posting it.

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Old 03-12-10, 02:18 PM   #9
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I don't think it's exactly what Justin meant, but saying that a model which calls for bets at market price (regardless of what that price may be) is doomed to failure is just not true.

Such a model has some inherent pitfalls, but they can be dealt with.

Last edited by MrX; 03-12-10 at 09:27 PM.
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Old 03-12-10, 04:17 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
If it used to work it he past, it won't going forward.
ridiculous statement here.
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Old 03-12-10, 05:06 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post
A system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeLiner View Post
Justin, some people claim RLM is a system. What is your take on it?
Hmm pretty hard to use RLM without the spread tbh
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Old 03-12-10, 05:44 PM   #12
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I think no 'chase' systems would be a good rule
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Old 03-12-10, 06:09 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrX View Post
I don't think it's exactly what he Justin meant, but saying that a model which calls for bets at market price (regardless of what that price may be) is doomed to failure is just not true.

Such a model has some inherent pitfalls, but they can be dealt with.
I agree with this.
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Old 03-12-10, 06:39 PM   #14
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Justin why you said a system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is? My NBA Totals System is based purely on total line? For example, if Vegas line is 219, it may be no play but it can be a play if line is 211 or less.
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Old 03-12-10, 10:01 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sawyer View Post
Justin why you said a system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is? My NBA Totals System is based purely on total line? For example, if Vegas line is 219, it may be no play but it can be a play if line is 211 or less.
If your "system" picks a play, it must be market sensitive. If you have a method for playing totals, you must evaluate the market total also.
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Old 03-13-10, 12:03 AM   #16
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Shocking thread. Of course Martingale chase things only clutter up the Tank, but as a simple example, basic strategy teasers are "a system."
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Old 03-13-10, 12:39 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skrtelfan View Post
Shocking thread. Of course Martingale chase things only clutter up the Tank, but as a simple example, basic strategy teasers are "a system."
Teasers consider the market spread, and are very sensitive to it. It the market is mostly +3 and you find a +2.5, you don't tease it. A more accurate title for Wong teasers would be "Buying 6 points, laying -240 on each leg yields a conversion advantage in certain circumstances". As with any opportunity, you have to use your brain and not bet blindly.
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Old 03-13-10, 12:49 AM   #18
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Justin laying the wood to get the Tank cleaned up..............its much appreciated Justin!
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Old 03-13-10, 10:35 AM   #19
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Well there are systems that DO take price into consideration, so I assume those would be allowed. Justin is only trying to weed out systems that call for a play on a team at ANY price, and I applaud him for that.
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Old 03-13-10, 10:59 AM   #20
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I understand the point is to keep out the stupid Martingale crap, but I find it useful to know something like "NBA teams who covered the spread at least 4 times in a row are 314-460 ATS in the next game." (That's a hypothetical example I just made up.) I wouldn't bet a system like that blindly but I would be more careful backing a team if I knew they'd covered 4 times in a row.
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Old 03-13-10, 11:26 AM   #21
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All Justin is saying is anything not related to finding value in a line through a quantitative approach is worthless in the long run (which is true). All qualitative approaches whether they be situational or betting against the public will correct themselves when enough people become aware of them. Blindly making wagers in this regard will not work long term. Finding value in a line quantitatively AND combining a sensible qualitative approach (betting against the public for one) will help to boost profit on turnover, at least in the short term. The point is, you must have some sort of quantitative approach anchoring what you are doing in terms of finding value or you are setting yourself up for failure.
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Old 03-13-10, 12:15 PM   #22
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If Justin can get this forum cleaned up, it would be a service to all of us
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Old 03-13-10, 03:59 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
Well there are systems that DO take price into consideration, so I assume those would be allowed. Justin is only trying to weed out systems that call for a play on a team at ANY price, and I applaud him for that.
"Any" price is always going to be market price though.
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Old 03-13-10, 04:57 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roasthawg View Post
"Any" price is always going to be market price though.
When I say a play at "any" price, I am saying price is not even taken into consideration. A play would be a play be it -3, -11 or +6. Those are the type of systems that don't belong here, as they are doomed in the long run.
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Old 03-13-10, 05:01 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skrtelfan View Post
I understand the point is to keep out the stupid Martingale crap, but I find it useful to know something like "NBA teams who covered the spread at least 4 times in a row are 314-460 ATS in the next game." (That's a hypothetical example I just made up.) I wouldn't bet a system like that blindly but I would be more careful backing a team if I knew they'd covered 4 times in a row.
Even there, the reason that may be true is because the hot team is often overvalued in the fifth game. However, if that trend becomes more well known, the books will stop overvaluing the team in their next game and the trend will eventually reverse. Now if the original trend has some sort of PRICE filter that says to play it only at a certain number, it would have more promise.
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Old 03-13-10, 05:12 PM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roasthawg View Post
"Any" price is always going to be market price though.
I agree. The assumption here is, the market is kind of efficient. The systems based on the market price should have some merits no matter what it is (so the price is any price).
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Old 03-13-10, 05:14 PM   #27
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I think there is as much value in examining "bad" systems for faults as there is in posting a "good" system that uses a line (but doesn't work).

Rules never saved anyone, and I doubt they will save the forum. If the regulars can't point out in an effective manner why two or three negatives added or multiplied together (aka a chase system) doesn't work..... we don't deserve a tech forum.
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Old 03-13-10, 05:29 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peep View Post
I think there is as much value in examining "bad" systems for faults as there is in posting a "good" system that uses a line (but doesn't work).
I generally agree. We were wasting too much time on everyone's random system that had no chance of winning.
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Old 03-13-10, 05:46 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justin7 View Post

If it used to work it he past, it won't going forward.
Isn't that the magic of RLM, that you are picking a side that few want (except for the big money)? Isn't it involving considerable line evaluation?
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Old 03-13-10, 06:44 PM   #30
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If Justin can get this forum cleaned up, it would be a service to all of us
not sure I agree with this. It's good to have a high level of noise so that the good signals do not get spoon-fed to those not willing to put in some work.
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Old 03-13-10, 07:02 PM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Peregrine Stoop View Post
not sure I agree with this. It's good to have a high level of noise so that the good signals do not get spoon-fed to those not willing to put in some work.
Yeah, that's kinda what I was thinking, too. It's not like this subforum is so active that it take too much time to look through.

And, as Peep pointed out, it's a good exercise to think about the shortcomings of bad ideas. Personally, I like seeing the whole range of ideas from laughably bad to valuable (well, not too valuable, of course).
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Old 03-13-10, 09:30 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrX View Post
Yeah, that's kinda what I was thinking, too. It's not like this subforum is so active that it take too much time to look through.

And, as Peep pointed out, it's a good exercise to think about the shortcomings of bad ideas. Personally, I like seeing the whole range of ideas from laughably bad to valuable (well, not too valuable, of course).
haha....i guess you guys are right.....it takes some work/thought to sift through here and find the nuggets........and most people don't have the ability or want to do so
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Old 03-13-10, 09:41 PM   #33
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I believe there is much value in examining the "bad" systems. People come up with some ingenious insight and most is remarkably bad when it comes to actually making a profit. However, the road to the "bad" system usually is based on some sort of winning bias strategy. I do find it strange that some people believe nothing at all can come of a system of just betting whatever the line is. If someone posts their system and it shows a profit, sure their system may have inherent flaws that a seasoned prognosticator can easily spot and know time will correct the issue, however, sometimes there are gems scattered throughout that dark matter of thought.

Anyway, whatever, it doesn't matter to me, I already have my betting strategies and all of them came from SBR and most started with some of the most off the wall "systems"

Best of luck to ya all.
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Old 03-13-10, 09:47 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DukeJohn View Post
I believe there is much value in examining the "bad" systems. People come up with some ingenious insight and most is remarkably bad when it comes to actually making a profit. However, the road to the "bad" system usually is based on some sort of winning bias strategy. I do find it strange that some people believe nothing at all can come of a system of just betting whatever the line is. If someone posts their system and it shows a profit, sure their system may have inherent flaws that a seasoned prognosticator can easily spot and know time will correct the issue, however, sometimes there are gems scattered throughout that dark matter of thought.

Anyway, whatever, it doesn't matter to me, I already have my betting strategies and all of them came from SBR and most started with some of the most off the wall "systems"

Best of luck to ya all.
You can learn a lot more from the people ripping apart the system.....they give you the reasons why the system blows..........which is valuable info
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Old 03-14-10, 07:32 PM   #35
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The idea of the think tank is to discuss the merits of various betting systems. Chase systems are crap but they deserve to be discussed because many buy into it. Same goes for most mechanical systems. Normally I agree with Justin, but this seems like censorship to me. As long as the OP seems sincere, the thread should be allowed IMO.
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