[Aman_Dage]

If players would learn to bet just with rotation #'s and not look at who is playing or who is pitching, booking would come to an end.

[diondublin]

A system is any type of betting that doesn't care what the spread or money line is. If you follow this, you will lose. Please don't clutter up the Think Tank with losing systems.

This assumes that the market is not 'reliable' in terms of the number it ends up as. It may just be that it is reliable in this way even if few or none know it and therefore it can be discounted in a system.

[afrodeschiac]

Man, I was just putting the final touches on a 125-41 ATS system. But it doesn't consider the line, so I won't be posting it.

Damn, that sounds good. If you do post that system somewhere lets us know so we can check it out. thanks

[supershark]

Hmm, this has been a very interesting read.
I have a degree in applied economics, so I have some mathematical skills (in statistics and econometrics) Justin7, what are your thoughts on a auto-regression compiling pitching/batting win/loss statistical measures for baseball to calculate a 'win' probability.. to be compared against the line. Is it worthwhile to make one? or will I just get squashed?

[bztips]

Hmm, this has been a very interesting read.
I have a degree in applied economics, so I have some mathematical skills (in statistics and econometrics) Justin7, what are your thoughts on a auto-regression compiling pitching/batting win/loss statistical measures for baseball to calculate a 'win' probability.. to be compared against the line. Is it worthwhile to make one? or will I just get squashed?

At the risk of downgrading Justin7's modeling skills, I don't believe he has much of a math/econometric background (he had to have someone else estimate a logit model for him for use in his book). Nevertheless, his book is very useful if you're just getting started in sports betting.

However, you sound confused yourself. An autoregression to calculate win probabilities, as its name indicates, would involve regressing win probabilities just on past values of win probabilities -- which is virtually guanteed to fail.

[supershark]

At the risk of downgrading Justin7's modeling skills, I don't believe he has much of a math/econometric background (he had to have someone else estimate a logit model for him for use in his book). Nevertheless, his book is very useful if you're just getting started in sports betting.

However, you sound confused yourself. An autoregression to calculate win probabilities, as its name indicates, would involve regressing win probabilities just on past values of win probabilities -- which is virtually guanteed to fail.

You are correct, and I guess that's what Justin7 and others was saying would not work going into the future .... however I think something that takes into account 'all' (or many) past probability systems should fare better than just a simple bet against a team that has covered the spread in 3 straight. Anyways, are there any good books on mathematical models for sports gambling. Something at the graduate level wouldn't scare me too much.

[Wrecktangle]

At the risk of downgrading Justin7's modeling skills, I don't believe he has much of a math/econometric background (he had to have someone else estimate a logit model for him for use in his book). Nevertheless, his book is very useful if you're just getting started in sports betting.

However, you sound confused yourself. An autoregression to calculate win probabilities, as its name indicates, would involve regressing win probabilities just on past values of win probabilities -- which is virtually guanteed to fail.

Something for you guys who fall in love with your models:

All models are wrong, but some are useful. ~ Statistician George E. P. Box

[bztips]

Thanks for that wonderful insight

[Wrecktangle]

Thanks for that wonderful insight

You're welcome; frequentists need all the help they can get.

[spargament]

Something for you guys who fall in love with your models: All models are wrong, but some are useful. ~ Statistician George E. P. Box

I still laugh when I say this because I think about the Chappelle popcorn skit, but the traditional Box-Cox transformation with a shift parameter could be awfully useful in eliminating noise from systems that DO incorporate price and regression analysis, no? It's been a long time since I've tried working a system, and even longer since I've been in a math or econ class, but that makes sense...I think..

..

[cliffcoast]

All Justin is saying is anything not related to finding value in a line through a quantitative approach is worthless in the long run (which is true). All qualitative approaches whether they be situational or betting against the public will correct themselves when enough people become aware of them. Blindly making wagers in this regard will not work long term. Finding value in a line quantitatively AND combining a sensible qualitative approach (betting against the public for one) will help to boost profit on turnover, at least in the short term. The point is, you must have some sort of quantitative approach anchoring what you are doing in terms of finding value or you are setting yourself up for failure.

I like your answer to this question. I'm a businessman and have done well in real estate as a builder and a Landlord. All the math associated with both is simple, money math. Nothing complicated.

My question. Can you reccomend a way, book, course, etc that a newbie with my background could learn quantatative analysis to sports betting?

Thank you,

Cliff

[cliffcoast]

You are correct, and I guess that's what Justin7 and others was saying would not work going into the future .... however I think something that takes into account 'all' (or many) past probability systems should fare better than just a simple bet against a team that has covered the spread in 3 straight. Anyways, are there any good books on mathematical models for sports gambling. Something at the graduate level wouldn't scare me too much.

Did you get any good book suggestions? Something at thw graduate level woBuld scare me. I'll say (humbly & greatfully) that I've done really well as a Builder, Landlord, Land Developer. But the math involved in all of it is so basic. I mean accounting 101 basic, really. When my peers in the biz try to get fancy that always are less profitable or simple complain that they get the same result but with 5x more work.

My question. Can you reccomend a basic book, video course, etc that will teach me how to apply quanatative analysis to sports investing?

Thanks,

Cliff

[Riceboi]

Did you get any good book suggestions? Something at thw graduate level woBuld scare me. I'll say (humbly & greatfully) that I've done really well as a Builder, Landlord, Land Developer. But the math involved in all of it is so basic. I mean accounting 101 basic, really. When my peers in the biz try to get fancy that always are less profitable or simple complain that they get the same result but with 5x more work. My question. Can you reccomend a basic book, video course, etc that will teach me how to apply quanatative analysis to sports investing? Thanks, Cliff

I would also like to know about books.

[Justin7]

St. Bernard,

I publicly tracked a lot of my plays for a couple years here: http://justin7.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/ You can decide for yourself whether those bets are winners, whether they beat the closing price, and use any other analysis you want. 1600 plays won't guarantee anything, but it is enough to profile a player.

If you are a handicapper, you understand expected value, and optimal bet sizing. Chase systems use neither. All they do is add variance. Even if you were a brilliant handicapper, you would be better off using a non-chase bet sizing approach. This has been discussed so many times, I'm simply not willing to waste threads on it in the HTT.

[SBExposed]

i agree. there are systems that actually work.

unfortunately, dumazz people don't work the systems. they usually get greedy when they see the bankroll growing.

a true system must include: money management, elimination filters, & historical success of a MINIMUM of the 5 most recent years.

[SBExposed]

and how do you do that? is there an ebook or course you're recommending?

[fitguy67]

i think what should be frowned upon is any method/technique/protocol/system where bets are sized primarily on the basis of attempting to recover previously-accrued losses+chalk...ie. any and all sorts of "chasing"/"line clearing" schemes...

they are incorrectly construed as "money management" techniques...but in reality they inevitably are nothing more than "volatility magnification" techniques

[MH]

Has anyone ever considered combining option pricing theory from quantitative finance with sports betting?

[GunShard]

Actually, there are system that does care what the money line value is, so banning systems is unreasonable.

[GunShard]

There's a lot of systems that I am experiementing with play points on various sites.

1. Zig zag betting on NHL playoffs
2. ATS power ranking bets on the NFL
3. O/U betting on the NFL past Week 4 or greater.
4. Fade the public system.