[Foals]

I'd be inclined to take mostly dogs with my book, but there is a catch. My book closes 8 hours before the games start (I live in Asia) so I cannot see the lines move throughout the day.

Is there any way to take advantage of the half point that my local always gives me (for dogs), and if so, how much of an edge would i have?

[xyz]

Use the half point calculator from SBR tools

[FreeFall]

Originally Posted by Foals

I'd be inclined to take mostly dogs with my book, but there is a catch. My book closes 8 hours before the games start (I live in Asia) so I cannot see the lines move throughout the day. Is there any way to take advantage of the half point that my local always gives me (for dogs), and if so, how much of an edge would i have?

I apologize if this is off topic and Justin please delete my post if I'm ruining the think tank, but why would he close the lines 8 hours before game time? Most of the bets come in an hour before game time so he is literally only taking sharp action?

[gambleballs]

Originally Posted by FreeFall

I apologize if this is off topic and Justin please delete my post if I'm ruining the think tank, but why would he close the lines 8 hours before game time? Most of the bets come in an hour before game time so he is literally only taking sharp action?

I'm guessing because he wants to get to bed sometime before the 7am start times.

[andywend]

Foals, assuming you're laying the traditional -110 with your local and he is indeed adding on a half point to all the dogs, you're winding up with bets with practically free vig assuming you're taking the dogs.

BoDog.com does the same kind of thing thinking that the majority of bettors like betting favorites and I guess they are correct to a point.

[Foals]

I actually take 5% vig (it's different where I'm from where you get taxed 5% for winners.. like risking 1000 to win 950). One problem on just taking all dogs in my opinion is that our lines close really early. The book closes at 11PM local time, when games usually start at 7AM-12PM the next day. I am looking for a way to predict where the lines move, so that I'll be able to get a point better than the Vegas closing line.

[Foals]

Originally Posted by FreeFall

I apologize if this is off topic and Justin please delete my post if I'm ruining the think tank, but why would he close the lines 8 hours before game time? Most of the bets come in an hour before game time so he is literally only taking sharp action?

Honestly, I think the only reason why my book moves the line by .5 in favor of dogs is because he is dealing with mostly squares who take faves. Thus it gives him a small edge because honestly, most squares wouldn't really care if the team they are playing would be -9 rather than -8.5.

[Cookie Monster]

If someone is able to predict the line movement he wold be rich. Being able to bet 1 or more points in the right direction everytime, and hedging at the closing line would be a gold mine.

Some people say thet the line usually moves against the dog, as most people takes the fav. In NFL it may be the case more often than not, but the trend is weak; in other sports the movement is fairly random.

[Foals]

Originally Posted by Cookie Monster

If someone is able to predict the line movement he wold be rich. Being able to bet 1 or more points in the right direction everytime, and hedging at the closing line would be a gold mine.

Some people say thet the line usually moves against the dog, as most people takes the fav. In NFL it may be the case more often than not, but the trend is weak; in other sports the movement is fairly random.

Would you think that taking all dogs be profitable with the "free" half point and the 5% vig? Considering that I'd only need to hit 52% in order to make a profit.

[trixtrix]

w/regards to nba, look to teams w/ total <200 and spread between 5 and 9, those half pts are worth more than half pts otherwise

[Foals]

The lines for my book today are really for the dogs at the moment.

I have SAC+3.5 and DET+7 locked in. Sac has a 2 pt move compared to the line from Pinny and Det has a 1.5 pt move compared to the line from Pinny. This is great value and I just wonder the amount of squares at my local!

[BigdaddyQH]

Foals, what your book is doing is done by many books. This is nothing new. It is common to see locals favor the dogs by 1/2 point. Other tricks they use is to use no half points in parlay cards and play "ties lose", in effect, giving themselves a point either way.

The street boys (and girls in two cases) that I know have been doing this for years. They want to give themselves the biggest break that they can, just like a player would.

[Cookie Monster]

If you are playing -105 lines (bet 105 to win 100), getting a free half point gives you an advantage over the vig. As a rule of thumb, half a point spread in basketball is worth 8 cents. In totals, half a point is worth about 5 points. you can check the exact value in each case using the half point calculator:

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

[Foals]

Thanks for the input guys. Today I got Sacramento +3.5 which is 3.5 points better than the closing line and Detroit +7 which is 1.5 points better than the closing line... I'm thinking about just betting all of the dogs where there is a 1.5 point difference between my local's line and Pinny's line. I'd presume that over the course of a season a lot of money can be made with no capping, just by using the 1.5 point edge that my local gives.

[benjy]

Originally Posted by Foals

Thanks for the input guys. Today I got Sacramento +3.5 which is 3.5 points better than the closing line and Detroit +7 which is 1.5 points better than the closing line... I'm thinking about just betting all of the dogs where there is a 1.5 point difference between my local's line and Pinny's line. I'd presume that over the course of a season a lot of money can be made with no capping, just by using the 1.5 point edge that my local gives.

Nice. That should make you some decent money. I'm jealous.

[FreeFall]

Originally Posted by Foals

The lines for my book today are really for the dogs at the moment. I have SAC+3.5 and DET+7 locked in. Sac has a 2 pt move compared to the line from Pinny and Det has a 1.5 pt move compared to the line from Pinny. This is great value and I just wonder the amount of squares at my local!

If hes smart enough to do this hes smart enought to notice your tricks and kick you, unless he likes it balanced. Either way nice on picks mentioned above!