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Old 01-15-10, 09:07 PM   #1
Bluehorseshoe
 
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Default What's the value of buying points on steamed games?

I had the over tonight on the Brown/Yale game and got lucky because I bought a point and a half and it mattered. (Game went from 140 to 141 1/2 late.)

In the long run, is it a bad move? It cost me 30 cents to do it.
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Old 01-15-10, 11:09 PM   #2
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I always buy the hook for the cheap costs and its well worth it..
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Old 01-16-10, 03:31 AM   #3
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Terrible.
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Old 01-16-10, 04:05 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluehorseshoe View Post
I had the over tonight on the Brown/Yale game and got lucky because I bought a point and a half and it mattered. (Game went from 140 to 141 1/2 late.)

In the long run, is it a bad move? It cost me 30 cents to do it.

Affirmative.
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Old 01-16-10, 04:06 AM   #5
Patrick McIrish
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluehorseshoe View Post
I had the over tonight on the Brown/Yale game and got lucky because I bought a point and a half and it mattered. (Game went from 140 to 141 1/2 late.)

In the long run, is it a bad move? It cost me 30 cents to do it.


Yes.
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Old 01-16-10, 06:58 AM   #6
Johnny 55
 
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Half Pt. Calculator is your friend.
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Old 01-16-10, 08:08 AM   #7
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HORRIBLE move on totals, sometimes worthwhile on Sides. Sure it mattered on the total last night, but that does not happen often enough to make up for extra juice.
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Old 01-16-10, 10:44 AM   #8
benjy
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Absolutely negative EV. In the long run buying points on totals will kill you.
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Old 01-16-10, 01:56 PM   #9
Bluehorseshoe
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
HORRIBLE move on totals, sometimes worthwhile on Sides. Sure it mattered on the total last night, but that does not happen often enough to make up for extra juice.
It just happened again on my Delaware Over. It steamed up to 140 and it landed on 139.
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Old 01-16-10, 03:00 PM   #10
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yea its definatly not worth it in the long
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Old 01-16-10, 03:10 PM   #11
LT Profits
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluehorseshoe View Post
It just happened again on my Delaware Over. It steamed up to 140 and it landed on 139.
Irrelevant, it does not change my point. You have to think long term, and buying points on totals is definitely -EV.
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Old 01-16-10, 03:35 PM   #12
20Four7
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If your Brandon Lang it's +EV because it allows you to turn your losers into winners and sell more subscriptions to your service.

I rarely if at all buy points.
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Old 01-17-10, 08:43 AM   #13
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Once upon a time, buying the hook on/off 3s in football was well worth it and depending on the costs 7s might have been OK too. This worked until the books discovered the true value of it and then ran up the cost of buying. The Aces Gold fiasco was in large part driven by sharps (even dulls like me) middling that book on NFL 3s. Now occasionally NFL 3 might be worth it, in other sports it calcs out to be -EV it seems.
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