[dmarkides]

I'm curious as to know what you guys think is the best sportsbetting system out there today? The ones I know of are Sports Betting Champ, Sports Betting Professor, Bookie Buster, Sports Book Investing, and Plus Line Sports.

Which ones of these are the best, and which ones should you stay away from?

Best: sports betting champ
Worst: Bookie Buster

But thats just my opinion

[THE PROFIT]

Basically you have to find a system that has a statistically significant mathematical advantage for the bettor. Trust me, these edges are not easily found. But if you are willing to search hard enough and crunch numbers enough, they can be found.

If you are thinking about systems that use manipulation of bets somehow (martingale, larouche, etc), forget it - they don't work. People will swear up and down that they have used a system to success or modified it somehow to make it effective - it's all hogwash. In the end, you will lose. Read and repeat.

The only way to win long term is to find out probabilities of certain events and find particular ways to exploit that through mathematical bets. I have one system for hockey and two for MLB...between all 3, I can make about 125-200u per year. But it is the ultimate grind - the edge isn't super large, but it is significant enough that if you stick to your gameplan, you will most definitely make money in the long run. The odds are in my favor. No I cannot share any of them, as they would exploited by sharps to no end and the value would be lost for me. But I am working hard to find others...thought I had one the other day, but the math didn't back it up so I can't use it.

Let's say I know I the probability of an event happening is 20% - and that event % has been generated from a sample size of over 10K events. When that event happens, I will lose 1 unit, but the other 80% of the time, I win 0.3 units...so over the long run, I should win 0.2 units over every 5 bets ( (4 * 0.3) - 1 = 0.2)...those are the type of scenarios I am interested in. Trust me I've crunched a ton of them and have only found 3 so far that work...

so for the lack of a better word this is trends, correct? If something has happened 1809 times out of 2156 times say, this is a trend.

[THE PROFIT]

Marc Lawrence is a trend handicapper, his DB goes back to 1980, I guess that's a large enough sample size for some things but not for others. Anyway, he is spot on in football, one of the best FB cappers IMO and is crazy accurate in college football. In basketball not so. I'm sure he uses this same method in both.

I am a football capper myself, I feel it is easier to intimately keep up with as there are much fewer games & teams, pro & college. IYO, is football easier to predict, I mean trends do seem to have much more of an advantage in football, do you agree. Would this be the reason Larence is much more successful than in hoops?

[JVP3122]

Let's say I know I the probability of an event happening is 20% - and that event % has been generated from a sample size of over 10K events. When that event happens, I will lose 1 unit, but the other 80% of the time, I win 0.3 units...so over the long run, I should win 0.2 units over every 5 bets ( (4 * 0.3) - 1 = 0.2)...those are the type of scenarios I am interested in. Trust me I've crunched a ton of them and have only found 3 so far that work...

Do you have something that gives you this percentage, or do you come up with these percentages on your own? I feel like you'd need to know the sport to come up with the percentages on your own.

[phans3]

I disagree, there is definatly some very worthy chase systems out there. The problem is the MM.

I am running close to 10 NBA/NHL chase systems mixed in with a pretty creative MM strategy and doing very well so far. I have taken several chase losses, and still in the positive.

People focus too much on chase system losses and not enough on building a MM strategy that can absorb the losses and grind away at them without taking big risks.

egr99

to make this systems work the bets have to be ev+

you can't win longterm with a chase system if the bets made are ev-

if you think you can than why in the world would you bet sports? move on to roulette and chase the shit if the casinos cause at some point red has to come... you just have to double ur money till red hits
ezy game

[donjuan]

I'm not really trolling. What about this:

You know that a player with a 5% edge betting to win, say, 20% of his bankroll on each wager has -eg.

Therefore, whoever is booking his bets must be +eg, even though his side is -ev, right?

Missed this back when it was posted but the answer is no. Take another example. Player makes a -ev but +eg hedge. Is that -eg for whoever is booking the hedge?

[xyz]

Missed this back when it was posted but the answer is no. Take another example. Player makes a -ev but +eg hedge. Is that -eg for whoever is booking the hedge?

Would the following be another example of -ev and -eg for the book when the player is +ev and -eg? If the book's bank roll is smaller than the player's bankroll, then accepting the player's 20% bankroll bet would be -eg for the book. Of course, it should not happen in real life due to limits.

[donjuan]

Would the following be another example of -ev and -eg for the book when the player is +ev and -eg? If the book's bank roll is smaller than the player's bankroll, then accepting the player's 20% bankroll bet would be -eg for the book. Of course, it should not happen in real life due to limits.

Yep. Could potentially happen with some retard local, I guess.

[MrX]

Yep. Could potentially happen with some retard local, I guess.

That's basically what I was getting at. In a two-player game, you could make nothing but -ev wagers and still be +eg by forcing your opponent to overbet his bankroll.

[yellowman]

Do you have something that gives you this percentage, or do you come up with these percentages on your own? I feel like you'd need to know the sport to come up with the percentages on your own.

The funny thing is .. my systems have nothing really to do with the sports themselves...NHL and MLB. They strictly work on numbers...and I don't mean that 'bet a home dog after they've lost 3 straight to sub .500 teams' bullshit. It is really mechanical. I really don't know much about either sport other than the rules...again all my plays are purely statistical...

[HailMary]

i have to admire"YellowMan" what he says is true,as in any worthy endeavor you must Put in the WORK, your niche is only good as long as the "Public" doesn't know about. another example is Black Jack in order to have half a chance You Must Be Able To Count Cards+ or - and then and only then you have a shot at winning a modest sum. naturally you should tip out to the dealers, otherwise they really may closer attention to there "Shuffle". If you happen to win (Med) Show a random act of kindness to someone you never met,how does it feel? i'll bet it made you feel uplifting? Hail Mary

[donjuan]

That's basically what I was getting at. In a two-player game, you could make nothing but -ev wagers and still be +eg by forcing your opponent to overbet his bankroll.

I need to think through this a bit more because I feel like this can't be right...

[u21c3f6]

I need to think through this a bit more because I feel like this can't be right...

What Mr X wrote is very true. For example, someone that has an approx 5% advantage at even money (52.6% wins) and starting with a $1,000 bankroll can expect the following growth:

Wagering 2.5% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $1,638.59
Wagering 5% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $1,964.63
Wagering 10% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $1,100.91
Wagering 15% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $ 172.11
Wagering 20% of bankroll expected bankroll after 500 wagers is: $ 7.19

That's why I like to point out that even if you don't use Kelly, it is important to know your Kelly % to avoid overbetting your bankroll.

Joe.

[mike23]

1st there's Martingale, then improvised by Morrison using some criteria to end chase after 3 series of betting and released more fine tune version. I combine them all, a chase using Labouchere using picks of good Cappers and betting within bankroll 5 to 10% rule. It's all about MM.

[JVP3122]

1st there's Martingale, then improvised by Morrison using some criteria to end chase after 3 series of betting and released more fine tune version. I combine them all, a chase using Labouchere using picks of good Cappers and betting within bankroll 5 to 10% rule. It's all about MM.

You said you use Labouchere, so I'm wondering what kind of progression you use. For example, in the systems explained (in a thread somewhere on this board), he mentions as an example a 1 2 3 4 5 6 progression, knocking out the 1 and 6 if you win, etc. Also, what kind of odds do you look for? I would imagine that a Labouchere doesn't work well for games at -150 odds and such.

[saro7]

I third sports betting champ

[LarryF]

SBC + MM = Profits

[tobias123]

SBC + MM = Profits

What changes did you make to MM Larry? Interested as i've never been a fan of chasing...

Cheers

[tobias123]

Also i'd have to say that i've been impressed by sports betting professor has been very good thus far, although i get the feeling that MM could be improved on this too....

[BRAVES1985]

Sbc sucks rooster

[GetPaid10]

I have read a few post in here and in my opinion they all are a bit far fetched, but I use John Morrison's system and it works we took a loss the other day with the Angels but I did not bet the final game the starting pitcher was hurt but it is what it is but we had won 10 games in a row before then my Bank Roll is up by alot no need to brag on the number but it's up and another system im looking into due to the fact John doesnt bet on College Football or Basketball (to my knowledge) Worlds Greatest Sports Betting System, Ultimate Sports Betting System and The Syndicating Betting System im looking into all of these but as the 4 Major Sports goes John Morrison is the system but the most important thing is Money Management Personally I bet 40% of my bankroll and 45% on a B bet thats all you will need or you could bet 20% (A) 25% (B) 50% (C) and you will always profit but try any of them out for yourself but regardless of who or what you use manage your money and if your betting with money you cant afford to lose then stop betting and always set paramaters before you start no matter how little or big your bankroll and stick with it and you will profit. I have no idea what everybody is talking about with this unit crap I talk dollars and cents I could care less about the units I care how many Benjamins Im up. And remember GETPAID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bradyd]

Some of the best advice given can be found in this thread.