[qwertvt]

Forgive me if there is a thread on this subject but I couldn’t find what I was looking for. So I figured it can’t hurt to ask.
When is a good time or, better yet, how do you know when the best time is to place a wager?
I made some plays yesterday early in the afternoon for that evening’s games. Not surprisingly, the lines changed. Some line changes were in my favor and some were not. Is there a general rule or thought on when to hold off and when to fire off a bet early? Any input would be appreciated.

[JohnAnthony]

I'm sure some of the veterans will provide much more compelling answers, but mostly:

If you think the public will drive the line your way, wait.
If you think the public will drive the line against you, bet.

Example:

First line: LA ****ers (-6) vs. LA nothingers

If you want to bet the nothingers, and think the public is in love with the ****ers and will bet them hard, you might want to wait to get more points. If you want to be the ****ers, you should bet as the line comes out.

Also take into account that lines change due to injury & media (see Arenas) reports, so betting early has it's vices & virtues.

Good luck!

[xyz]

Bet whenever a +EV situation presents itself. That can be any time from when the line comes out to when the game begins. Do not make the assumption that you know the direction of future line moves. If you knew in which way the line moves, you would be printing money.

[Peep]

Usually favorites get bet down, dogs go up.

But not always, or even enough to count on it. If you like a number, bet it. If you don't, wait to see if it goes in your favor.

[Indecent]

Originally Posted by Peep

Usually favorites get bet down, dogs go up.

Ummm.. what?

[IrishTim]

Originally Posted by Indecent

Ummm.. what?

People love saying this but if it were that easy, we'd all be rich. Some make money by being superior handicappers, some by being more market analysts, and the best make money by being successful at both.

[Peep]

I think it is true.

If a game opens at -14, I think there is a better chance the favorite goes to -14.5 or -15 than down to -13.5 or -13.

What do you guys think?

If anyone wants to bet a 100 SBR points on the next ten hoop openers -13 or better on SBR odds, I'll bet that away.....

[suicidekings]

Originally Posted by Peep

Usually favorites get bet down, dogs go up.

This is FAR too general a statement to accurately describe line movement or the expected value of an opening line.

[suicidekings]

Originally Posted by qwertvt

Forgive me if there is a thread on this subject but I couldn’t find what I was looking for. So I figured it can’t hurt to ask.
When is a good time or, better yet, how do you know when the best time is to place a wager?
I made some plays yesterday early in the afternoon for that evening’s games. Not surprisingly, the lines changed. Some line changes were in my favor and some were not. Is there a general rule or thought on when to hold off and when to fire off a bet early? Any input would be appreciated.

In general, the more information you have before placing your wager, the better. I used to be a straight handicapper, but I've started to depend more and more on market analysis as I feel that in the long run, reading the reactions of the books is a much more consistent strategy than relying on NBA teams to play to their expected level on a given night.

On a typical day, I run my simulations sometime between when the opening lines come out and when I go to bed. From that I identify games of interest where I feel there is value in the spread. I like to wait at a bare minimum until I've seen the overnight activity (and action placed as the overnight limits are removed) before I feel comfortable laying money. Even then, it remains a problem of identifying where the line is going to end up. Why do the heavy lifting yourself when market activity and the books' reaction to it will provide you with so much information if you just wait?

[Peeig]

Whenever you find a profitable situation

[StarPicks]

Depends on the situation. You have to look at the value of the line compared to what you have. Is the line near a key number that would go against or for you? Does the team in question has game time decisions on personell? So what I am trying to get is, sometimes you bet early, sometimes you wait. However, you will NOT get the line movement correct everytime so you have to have trust in your lines.

[floridagolfer]

I'd agree with the thought that there is no absolute right or wrong to the original question. Regardless of when you pull the trigger, there are no guarantees that any ensuing line movement will help or hurt you. But I also believe that in the overwhelming majority of the time, a small change in the line is immaterial; you've either picked to go the right way or you haven't.

[Johnny 55]

A small change in the line is immaterial. This is the kind of statement that will lead you to going broke. Value is in getting every possible chance you have, every percentage point in your favor is money in your pocket in the long run.

[Peep]

This is FAR too general a statement to accurately describe line movement or the expected value of an opening line.

Uh, maybe because the original question is far too general a question to be answered accurately?

[floridagolfer]

Originally Posted by Johnny 55

A small change in the line is immaterial. This is the kind of statement that will lead you to going broke. Value is in getting every possible chance you have, every percentage point in your favor is money in your pocket in the long run.

I understand that. You never know when half a point is going to make the difference between a winning wager and a losing one. But too many bettors place too much importance on this. It's like trying to time the stock market; it's way too difficult to do for the average person doing this on a part-time basis. Pick a good stock at the right price and quit kicking yourself because you bought at $20.10 instead of $20. Same thing with handicapping; do it well and pick the right side and the rest will fall into place. If we all know when a line was going to move in our favor, this would be easier. But we don't.

[20Four7]

Originally Posted by Peep

Usually favorites get bet down, dogs go up.

But not always, or even enough to count on it. If you like a number, bet it. If you don't, wait to see if it goes in your favor.

That is correct Peep..... the other thing is what do you want the number to be..... can you sit and wait to see if the number goes to +7.5..... and if it doesn't hit 7.5 can you NOT bet it. Do you have that in you. If it's one minute to game time and the number is 6.5 and you WANTED 7.5 and you bet it anyways it's not a good bet....

In all sports know the KEY numbers...... If you bet totals know the key numbers there (more applicable in football).

The public loves favourites, loves the cowboys loves the yankees..... they will all be priced higher than they should be.

[BigdaddyQH]

Most pro gamblers wager early, when the lines first come out, or very late, a hour before the game starts when you are talking Football. This way, they can follow the line movement all week, and detect any type of movement that would be considered out of the ordinary. While not set in stone, most lines in football will tend to drift back to their original openers. This is not true all of the time. Another thing to consider is the time between games. Football normally has a week in between games, though some may have as little as two days. Normally, this gives the pro a lot of time to study line movement. The other major team sports, baseball, hoops, and hockey, do not offer such a luxury. Their lines come out on a daily basis, making it much more difficult to wager on. The average fan is not going to have the luxury of determining when to wager on these games. Basically there is very little line movement if any on most of these games, so when you wager on them really does not matter a lot.

[suicidekings]

Originally Posted by Peep

Uh, maybe because the original question is far too general a question to be answered accurately?

Haha. True story.

[marcoforte]

Originally Posted by floridagolfer

I understand that. You never know when half a point is going to make the difference between a winning wager and a losing one. But too many bettors place too much importance on this. It's like trying to time the stock market; it's way too difficult to do for the average person doing this on a part-time basis. Pick a good stock at the right price and quit kicking yourself because you bought at $20.10 instead of $20. Same thing with handicapping; do it well and pick the right side and the rest will fall into place. If we all know when a line was going to move in our favor, this would be easier. But we don't.

Agree with floridagolfer. Handicapping is the most important thing. Staying on the right side of key numbers is second most important. If you haven't picked the right team, finding a good number doesn't matter. Don't confuse dessert with the main entree.

[Wrecktangle]

No easy answer to this question: it all "depends"

[aggieshawn]

this is like your asking your favorite type of TP. most cases you will settle for anything

[TWEETS]

Unless your betting openers, you can usually check the line movement so far and get a general idea if it is going to move for you or against you. If I think a pick has value at the current number, I bet it. If it moves against you, oh well, you got it at what you thought was a good number.

[Pokerjoe]

Edited to delete my answer. I think I'm better off letting silliness reign.

[BubbleBobble]

Monitor several books, and when you see a line that shines out and fits your opinion of the game - that is the best time. Specially when the market leaders moved and one book still hangs the old line.

[DOMINATER]

when it hits you in your gut when it feels right lines go up and down. when you have that inneralarm that goe off thats when you lay it down.