[BuddyBear]

I know there are people here who play money line dogs (i.e. Mudcat ) I was hoping you guys could talk a bit about how you select which ones to play and which ones to avoid and what is the success rate you need to hit them at in order to be successful. Do you play them in combination with the side of a game or is it strictly money line. Thanks.

[Clip Joint]

I have a tracking thread going on here for the NFL pre season as I play every moneyline dog for the entire pre season blindly.

[Mudcat]

Okay, you know what? I've been talking about this for awhile. Let me sort through my spreadsheets from last season and give you some exact numbers and a full explanation.

I'll post something on this today - I promise.

[jjgold]

It seems the powerhouse teams that are heavy favorites are not the ones to go against.

I would think teams that are overrated you should take the points but the hard part is identyfing those teams.

[Mudcat]

Okay, these are some results from last season on ncaaf dog moneylines. These results are from actual wagers but I want to talk in more general terms about research methodology because I think I have a good, simple methodology that people could profit from using.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY – It’s pretty simple. I monitor a lot of sportsbooks every day. I usually have a few tests I am running on top of day-to-day business. In this case the test was, what if I bet ncaaf dog moneylines every time they go above +200. I simply record the best line I can find (then later the result) on a spreadsheet.

NOTE: LINE-SHOPPING IS VERY IMPORTANT!!

Another note: I don't begin until week 3. Experience has shown me that that's when the effect starts kicking in.

If I miss a day or certain games on a given day, then that’s fine. That’s the way things go in gambling life. The important thing is to collect a large enough sample that I can form a reasonable long-term expectation. After collecting what I consider to be a statistically significant sample, I see if I would have made money. I analyze the research from different angles (i.e. HOME dogs, away dogs, different cut-off points other than lines of +200 or higher).

If the system is making money after a significant number of samples (minimum 200), I start putting real money behind it. If no, I move on to the next hypothesis.

What I do in this case is bet every single dog I see of +200 or more - without thinking, without capping. I honestly don't have a lot of time for capping. But I'm sure a serious capper could just incorporate these types of statistics into their capping decisions and pick and choose what they believe the best bets are.

There is a great deal more betting theory I could throw out there about why lines tend to get out-of-whack on lop-sided dogs. If anyone wants to talk about that, then that's fine. But the basic fact is that they usually do (not in every single case - like I have found ncaab dogs of +200 or more to be a very bad bet - but usually).

IS IT A GOOD IDEA TO BET ALL NCAAF DOGS OF ABOVE +200?

My answer: yes, I moved from the research phase to the betting phase a long time ago and it's been a good money-maker.



Last year's numbers:

Last year’s results were basically spectacular and results that good can’t be expected every year, although it is profitable year-in, year-out.

211 games bet last year on ncaaf dogs of +200 or more.

Result = +58.18 units.

HOME DOGS = +18.89 units after 38 games
away dogs = +39.29 units after 173 games


The number of games bet is fairly low simply because I wasn't working every Saturday last ncaaf season.

It works for NFL as well. I have an ongoing dilemna in that I bet all pointspread underdogs of 10 points or more - and I don't like to bet both the spread and the moneyline on the same team - although maybe I should. Maybe in fact, I'd be better off just betting the ML and forget the spread - but I've been getting good results from betting those spreads for so long that I just keep doing it.

But it all starts with that same simple research methodology.

[taurus]

Mudcat- I assume that you are talking about a book like Pinnacle which has a cutoff on ML availability somewhere in the mid to high teens, and not 5Dimes where you can bet the ML on ANY game- i.e., Ball State vs Texas for example.

[Mudcat]

That's a good point which I failed to mention Taurus. I only bet in cases where there are a few lines to shop from. So those crazy lop-sided lines which only 5 Dimes has aren't included in this.

Taking a closer look at last year's data, there is nothing above +700.

[jjgold]

Some great material here

I have heard taking home team dogs on national tv is also profitable long term

[bigboydan]

i plan on betting some football money lines this year in the NFL. i've noticed these past few years that the money lines can be profitable.

[BuddyBear]

So mudcat, are you saying by week 3 of NCAAF we should identify all ML dogs between +200 and +700 and play them? Any books you might want to recommend for this that have loose ML on dogs?

[Mudcat]

Originally Posted by BuddyBear

So mudcat, are you saying by week 3 of NCAAF we should identify all ML dogs between +200 and +700 and play them? Any books you might want to recommend for this that have loose ML on dogs?

I hate to make recommendations for anyone else but that's what I'll be doing.

The main books for these for the last couple years (although things can change year to year):

Pinnacle
Olympic
Las Palmas
CRIS
Intertops
5 Dimes
and I'll definitely be keeping an eye on Mansion although they tend to be better for ML favorites.

I might post and track these plays here in the sports forum but I make no promises. I frequently get the idea that I'll post picks but, when push comes to shove, it ends up on the back burner.

[Mudcat]

ABC Islands too. I forgot to mention ABC Islands. They're a good book to keep an eye on for these.