[statnerds]

you guys are all sharp and a band of intelligent gents, so what is everyone's favorite/easiest market to find +EV wagering opportunities?

smaller or larger markets?

early lines or later?

what you guys got?

[Peeig]

Props

[goblue12]

Love the prop bets.

NBA and NFL drafts are very easy to beat because the books don't know who the accurate gurus in those industries are. You can swipe their info, and laugh when the books offer Aaron Maybin +900 to the Bills.

[Dunder]

As a rule small markets (less efficient) and early lines (less price discovery) provide better opportunities.

I went through a period 3-4 years ago of specialising in Italian and Greek volleyball. During that time I had EVs of 10+% on straight up bets on most days. This was based on a very successful model which I developed using data/stats which were readily available.

[Justin7]

Derivatives (teasers, CPs, book misconversions)
Props
Small markets (including any sport you have never seen on TV, like Dunder's v-ball).

[tltaylor89]

Futures

[cobra_king]

Live

[FreeFall]

of the big markets i like NHL/MLB mls. But I'm still new to the game. I assume over time I'll start to love props as I learn how they are modeled. I also hit openers b/c I have a model of what I think the game should be and look for games that are off. You see this on the sharks a lot in hockey. IE when they play ANA tom.

[Hybris]

Tennis

[Peeig]

Originally Posted by cobra_king

Live

Hmm....I'll have to look into that.

[NYER5680]

props

[statnerds]

this thread got a lot of props....get it?

funny i usually only take a long look at props on the SB of course. usually turn a small profit, but love having 20-25 props that are affected by nearly every play.

what books and what props are you guys looking at?

love the NFL Draft angle as well. there are tons of 'experts' out there so information is vast and some of it inaccurate.

this started because of researching that Favs win % in the NFL declines as the line increases. and while each game should be capped as an independent event, it is hard to ignore any numbers that fall below 45% over the last 225+ games that fit a specific situation.

thanks everyone for input.

[Fishhead]

Originally Posted by statnerds

this thread got a lot of props....get it?

funny i usually only take a long look at props on the SB of course. usually turn a small profit, but love having 20-25 props that are affected by nearly every play.

what books and what props are you guys looking at?

love the NFL Draft angle as well. there are tons of 'experts' out there so information is vast and some of it inaccurate.

this started because of researching that Favs win % in the NFL declines as the line increases. and while each game should be capped as an independent event, it is hard to ignore any numbers that fall below 45% over the last 225+ games that fit a specific situation.

thanks everyone for input.

Props alone pay the mortgage........

[Fishhead]

I like moneylines, for the simple reason I can get down $5,000+ at many places.

[durito]

Originally Posted by Fishhead

I like moneylines, for the simple reason I can get down $5,000+ at many places.

1) This doesn't make any sense
2) You've never bet $5,000 on anything


The answer to the OP is anything with small limits.

[statnerds]

Originally Posted by durito

The answer to the OP is anything with small limits.

so a quick check of a book's limits would sometimes reveal to the sharp eye which action presents bettors with the best edge?

not a hard and fast rule i assume, but a good starting point. maybe not even a starting point, but at least another arrow in the quiver?

is Snooker ever televised? i don't even know what the hell that is, but 5D or BM had lines on it.

[Fishhead]

Originally Posted by durito

1) This doesn't make any sense
2) You've never bet $5,000 on anything


The answer to the OP is anything with small limits.

How in the world would you know????

Fact is, I wager numerous $5,000+ wagers on a daily basis.

By the way, it is true that the offers that have small limits usually provide the best +ev, but the low limits keep one from earning big profits.

[durito]

Originally Posted by statnerds

so a quick check of a book's limits would sometimes reveal to the sharp eye which action presents bettors with the best edge?

not a hard and fast rule i assume, but a good starting point. maybe not even a starting point, but at least another arrow in the quiver?

is Snooker ever televised? i don't even know what the hell that is, but 5D or BM had lines on it.

Pretty much.

If pinny is offering 30k limits and -104/-104, they are certainly making money on that league. Beating them on a market like that is thus gonna be very tough.

Now look at NCAAB first half totals. -108/-108 and $50, yes $50 limits. They are obviously scared of any action there.

[Dunder]

Originally Posted by statnerds

so a quick check of a book's limits would sometimes reveal to the sharp eye which action presents bettors with the best edge?

not a hard and fast rule i assume, but a good starting point. maybe not even a starting point, but at least another arrow in the quiver?

is Snooker ever televised? i don't even know what the hell that is, but 5D or BM had lines on it.

Snooker (a cue sport) is televised and heavily bet on. 5D and BM copy/paste lines from UK books. Ditto for darts.

[Thremp]

Originally Posted by Dunder

As a rule small markets (less efficient) and early lines (less price discovery) provide better opportunities

Originally Posted by Justin7

Derivatives (teasers, CPs, book misconversions) Props Small markets (including any sport you have never seen on TV, like Dunder's v-ball).

The thread could have concluded at this point with basically full knowledge sans the trolling that has occurred.

[Tomato]

Originally Posted by durito

1) This doesn't make any sense
2) You've never bet $5,000 on anything


The answer to the OP is anything with small limits.

What?

5Dimes gives this guy 2.7 million dollar limits!

He's a PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER.

Just like BigDaddyQH.

[Peeig]

OP, nobody is going to tell u where to look....these things have small limits and the value goes away quick after a few max bets

[JoeVig]

Originally Posted by durito

Now look at NCAAB first half totals. -108/-108 and $50, yes $50 limits. They are obviously scared of any action there.

No doubt. This has gotten worse every year since UIGEA. And, they move the line very hard sometimes.

[blix177]

Stock, bonds... all has +EV

Live market if you know what you are doing.

[byronbb]

NHL for stale closers on square books.





How is the MLB? Just started.

[Johnny 55]

Swedish handball is where the money is.

[egr99]

Interesting talk about the props. Say a local clones thegreek's lines for props and is spot on all the games. Greek moves to -170 but local is still @ -150 for the same prop. Whats you opinion on just playing these..

egr99

[durito]

The Greek prop market is very far from efficient.

I certainly wouldn't play that example on a 30 cent line, that's only about break even on an efficient market.

But, I've seen locals sit on -115/-115 and the greek move to -200. I'd certainly play that (though you should just figure out how to price it yourself)

[Dunder]

Originally Posted by Johnny 55

Swedish handball is where the money is.

Floorball too!

[Peeig]

Originally Posted by durito

The Greek prop market is very far from efficient.

I certainly wouldn't play that example on a 30 cent line, that's only about break even on an efficient market.

But, I've seen locals sit on -115/-115 and the greek move to -200. I'd certainly play that (though you should just figure out how to price it yourself)

You can find those sorts of things on the interwebs as well, but guessing by your posts, durito, you have long been shown the door at said books that offer thems opportuniteez......

[man3645]

My question is..how do inefficient markets stay alive? If bookmakers are aware of forum sites like this and notice that sharps get full from props alone, why not just remove them. Same thing with teasers, why not just get rid of them?

[Dunder]

Originally Posted by man3645

My question is..how do inefficient markets stay alive? If bookmakers are aware of forum sites like this and notice that sharps get full from props alone, why not just remove them. Same thing with teasers, why not just get rid of them?

Because there is enough "square" money to balance/offset at the higher juice.

[durito]

Originally Posted by man3645

My question is..how do inefficient markets stay alive? If bookmakers are aware of forum sites like this and notice that sharps get full from props alone, why not just remove them. Same thing with teasers, why not just get rid of them?

Teaser prices have mostly gotten worse every year. Bookmakers want to keep being able to offer them to squares. Greek limits everyone with a clue to $100.

There are way fewer props available than a few years ago with lower limits and books will still limit you fast if you win on them. They really aren't worth the time once your bankroll is big enough.

[man3645]

Originally Posted by Dunder

Because there is enough "square" money to balance/offset at the higher juice.

Ya actually that makes sense but do you guys think that th prop market, for example, will ever become more efficient over time or at least as efficient as most major league markets?

[Dunder]

Originally Posted by man3645

Ya actually that makes sense but do you guys think that th prop market, for example, will ever become more efficient over time or at least as efficient as most major league markets?

No. Efficiency is proportional to liquidity (total wagered) in the market in question.