1. 04-14-14 06:28 PM #1
    hotelis
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    Simple math question

    Arsenal-West Ham match. Odds for WH under 1.5 are 1.17. If arsenal at home concedes 2 or more goals in 1 out of 8 games and WH scores 2 or more in 4 out of 16 road games , what is a chance of these two happening at the same time? whats the formula?
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  2. 04-14-14 07:45 PM #2
    James Marques
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    50/50
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  3. 04-15-14 08:13 AM #3
    bihon
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    1/8 * 1/4 = 3.125%
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  4. 04-15-14 09:23 AM #4
    hotelis
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    Quote Originally Posted by bihon View Post
    1/8 * 1/4 = 3.125%
    yes, thank you
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  5. 04-15-14 09:50 AM #5
    bihon
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    Edit
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  6. 04-15-14 10:38 AM #6
    James Marques
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    Quote Originally Posted by bihon View Post
    1/8 * 1/4 = 3.125%
    This would only be correct if they were two independent events. These are clearly not independent events. Moreover, it does not take any sort of schedule strength of the prior games into account. Maybe Arsenal only allowed 2 goals or more at home once because they haven't played any decent teams? Maybe West Ham has had a particularly tough road schedule? I've got news for you if your odds of something happening are RADICALLY different than the book's odds, it is you that has made the mistake... not the book
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