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factoring in a teams fumd ratio ?
i'm trying to develop a point differential system. If a team has scored for example 30 points per a game over the last few games but they have been very lucky and scored 4 tds off of fumbles. Could someone point me in the right direction for figuring out the teams true scoring rate?Or something close 2 it?
Thank you didn't know it would be as simple as that. One more question what is a good site to keep track of how many TDs a team has scored of fumbles? I use to have one in my bookmarks but it got erased and i don't remember the name. i put sites to keep track of a teams fumd ratio and got a bunch of mutual fund sites.
That obviously wasn't THE answer - just a small suggestion.
most turnovers are random...... then again there are some teams that are turnover prone.
Would this be a good way to atleast get a gross estimate of the info i want? I cap in a 6 game cycle. Meaning i use a teams stats over their last 6 games. This will obviously take a while. Start with say the 2008 season. filter for teams that have scored Td's off of fumbles get their averages. Then get their week 7 averages and see if their scores went down? If all the teams that have a positive TD scored off of fumble ratio average 25 points per a game. Then score on average 23 points per a game in the 7th game then it would say that we need to adjust for such things.
Ofcourse it could turn out that it doesn't really make a difference. Then after that wouldn't i need to factor in scoring opportunities lost due to fumbles?
I know but luck always evens out. So a team that is picking up fumbles left and right likely has a inflated scoring average.Originally Posted by 20Four7
What about interceptions that are returned for a TD?
Personally i would not factor those as much. Ints have some element of skill. Fumbles are 99.9 percent luck.
I view 90% of all turnovers as luck. Also, what about kick returns for touchdowns?
This is why I think YPP is the most important football stat. Not only does it take turnovers and special teams out of the equation, but it also accounts for short drives set up by turnovers and returns.
Depends on league. Fumbles more random in NFL than CFB.
nfl
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